Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Parks, Minneapolis Public Schools, Density, Zoning, etc.
Ohiosotan
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Re: Minneapolis Population Growth - Onward to 500k!

Postby Ohiosotan » February 28th, 2020, 1:06 pm

A little harsh... ex Minneapolitan, now Columbusian - I would argue Short North is more vibrant and walkable than Uptown, North Loop, or NE.

Yes they lack the fancy stuff (trains and bike lanes) but the city is rapidly urbanizing. I would say its about 15 years behind Minneapolis in amenities. They haven't had to face being a city yet so they are warming up to it. It is also a metro area that is half the size of the Twin Cities but predicted to add another million people in the next 20 years. If we can keep 300k of that in the city center, thats an entirely new story.
It may seem harsh, but Columbus has been deferring improvements for a long time: the goal of 10,000 downtown residents has taken 20 years as of this year. And the thing about the Short North is that that's all there is for a vibrant (non-OSU) neighborhood in a city of 900k and it's been hyper-gentrified, not quite like its heyday in the 00s when I hung out there. Even though many of our districts aren't as extensive (Short North is still short at a mile long) I'd take all of the smaller districts here which each have their own flavor and add up to much more than a mile. Columbus has put off investing in the inner-city because annexations hide urban areas on the west, south, east and northeast sides hemorrhaging 1/5 to 1/4 of their populations as of the last 2010 census which one doesn't see when just looking at population totals for the city. Reaching a downtown population of 10,000 was a goal set 20 years ago and only being obtained today. That metric is similar to just about any other and it's hard to believe that in just 15 years they'll add another 40k and light rail and bikeways and repopulate most urban neighborhoods that have seen free-falling populations. Maybe things will start to accelerate, but I'm not seeing any indicators that would point towards that trend.

twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis City Planning Commission

Postby twincitizen » February 3rd, 2021, 8:36 pm

If the official Census population approaches 440k , each ward will hold around 33,800 residents (+/- 5%). That's up from the 29,429 that the current wards were drawn at (based on the 2010 Census), so each ward will have to hold an additional 4,371 people (technically ~3,000-6,000 using the extremes of the 5% tolerance permitted, but it'll be closer to the middle).

I heard that the City Charter specifically says ward boundaries are to be drawn from the corners inward, so that would seem to explain why Wards 2, 3, 6 & 7 look the way they do. Point being that if you were trying to specifically draw one "central downtown" ward or one "greater university" ward, that may not be possible. Wards 2, 3, 6, and 7 will all definitely see some pretty significant shifting around where their borders meet. Despite the massive growth along the Greenway and Lyndale, I could see Ward 10's shape not changing a whole lot, just shedding its southern bits (East Harriet neighborhood) to Wards 8 and/or 13. Ward 4 (far north) hasn't increased population at all and will need to expand southward, pushing Ward 5 further south, likely pulling Bryn Mawr and/or a bit of the North Loop into it.
Quoting myself here, but with the 2021 election season heating up, I wonder if this might be Lisa Goodman's last term. She lives in Bryn Mawr, which could very easily get absorbed into Ward 5 post-2021. Wards 4 and 5 haven't really grown at all, relative to many other parts of the city, which means they'll each need to grow to absorb another ~4,000 people. Assuming that neither 4 or 5 jump across the river to pick up a piece of NE, Ward 4 will absorb part of current Ward 5, resulting in 5 pushing even further south to compensate. Meanwhile, Ward 7 will need to shrink due to downtown population growth. That would likely put Goodman's Bryn Mawr home in Ward 5, which would still be majority Northside, and set up a contest she would likely lose. That combined with her having been in office since 1997(!), and yeah...smart money is that she'll hang it up after a final 2-year term in '22-23 (and for the record she will absolutely win again this year).

Silophant
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby Silophant » February 3rd, 2021, 9:24 pm

Fingers crossed.

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby SurlyLHT » February 4th, 2021, 5:44 pm

Ward 5 has seen a lot more growth than Ward 4. Ward 4 could go closer to W. Broadway and Ward 5 could easily into North Loop directly West. I wouldn't assume it's going directly south into Bryn Mawr. Also the Zip Code 55411 which mirrorsand is smaller than the current Ward 5 boundaries has 31,183 people per 2019 Census Data. (Most of the growth has been along the W. Broadway, Penn Ave, Glenwood, and 55 are all in Ward 5)

StandishGuy
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby StandishGuy » February 6th, 2021, 2:25 pm

How would someone determine current populations of Minneapolis wards using Census data?

StandishGuy
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby StandishGuy » February 6th, 2021, 4:34 pm

Here's a link to the Metropolitan Council's 2019 estimates for municipalities in the 7- county metro area. https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... px#content

Minneapolis: 435,885
St. Paul: 315,925

alexschief
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby alexschief » August 12th, 2021, 1:14 pm

Today the US Census Bureau released the official population numbers from the 2020 Census. As expected after the state-level numbers were released, MSP beat their 2019 census estimates (below their Met Council estimates, however).

Minneapolis
2010 - 382,578
2020 - 429,954 (+12.4%)

Saint Paul
2010 - 285,068
2020 - 311,572 (+9.3%)

This is Minneapolis' highest population since the 1970 census and Saint Paul's highest population since the 1960 census. Barring a reversal in these trends, both cities will surpass those marks in the near future, probably the next year or two. In the region, these numbers are extremely impressive. Chicago's net population growth was similar to Minneapolis', and it's six and a half times the size. But nationally, the two core cities fall in the middle. Obviously, southern cities like Houston and Dallas continued to explode. Peer cities like Denver (+115k, +19.2%) and Seattle (+128k, +21%) outgrew MSP. Portland (+69k, +11.8), grew similarly.

Two caveats: one is that MSP is weird because it has two core cities and both are small. So the metropolitan region is really the best comparative measure. The other is that the 2020 census was wonky, and I'm not sure I'm ever going to fully trust its results. But for better or worse, these are the numbers.

dimabima
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby dimabima » August 12th, 2021, 2:20 pm

Today the US Census Bureau released the official population numbers from the 2020 Census. As expected after the state-level numbers were released, MSP beat their 2019 census estimates (below their Met Council estimates, however).

Minneapolis
2010 - 382,578
2020 - 429,954 (+12.4%)

Saint Paul
2010 - 285,068
2020 - 311,572 (+9.3%)

This is Minneapolis' highest population since the 1970 census and Saint Paul's highest population since the 1960 census. Barring a reversal in these trends, both cities will surpass those marks in the near future, probably the next year or two. In the region, these numbers are extremely impressive. Chicago's net population growth was similar to Minneapolis', and it's six and a half times the size. But nationally, the two core cities fall in the middle. Obviously, southern cities like Houston and Dallas continued to explode. Peer cities like Denver (+115k, +19.2%) and Seattle (+128k, +21%) outgrew MSP. Portland (+69k, +11.8), grew similarly.

Two caveats: one is that MSP is weird because it has two core cities and both are small. So the metropolitan region is really the best comparative measure. The other is that the 2020 census was wonky, and I'm not sure I'm ever going to fully trust its results. But for better or worse, these are the numbers.
Interestingly, Houston and Dallas both had lower growth than Minneapolis. Their comparatively large population bases make this a hard comparison, though. Minneapolis even outpaced Phoenix proper. Metro areas are a different story.

Anondson
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby Anondson » August 12th, 2021, 4:23 pm

I’m eagerly looking forward to the posts and tweets speculating on redistricting in metro and state. Speculative maps!

StandishGuy
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby StandishGuy » August 18th, 2021, 12:19 pm

Where did you find the final numbers? I couldn't locate them on the Census website.

Minneapolis' population density remains just shy of 8,000 per square mile. Pretty good for U.S. cities, but quite low for global places like Stockholm, Paris, etc. St. Paul's density is just 5,600.

RedDutch
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby RedDutch » August 18th, 2021, 2:44 pm

I think our global warming problem is going to ultimately force people out of the south. I spent 4 days in Phoenix at 110-115 degrees per day and 90 at night. It was brutal. Even on our harshest MN winter days....you can always bundle up and get through it. This was unbearable. Plus......they are going to run out of water at some point. I can't believe people think they are going to solve this problem.

Anondson
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Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby Anondson » August 18th, 2021, 2:59 pm

I think the trial balloon proposals to pipe water from the Mississippi River and Great Lakes to the drought-prone western states has made certain people think that piping water is actually possible and will be done if desperate enough to save the economy from the fate of that many millions people without water.

Kind of a “welp, there are too many people there now to abandon the places!”

Same with Miami, Houston, New Orleans, barrier islands of North Carolina…

drgrant
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby drgrant » August 19th, 2021, 8:13 am

I think the trial balloon proposals to pipe water from the Mississippi River and Great Lakes to the drought-prone western states has made certain people think that piping water is actually possible and will be done if desperate enough to save the economy from the fate of that many millions people without water.
There is some historic precedent for this though, California is full of pipelines and aqueducts that are hundreds of miles long. They just don't realize how much bigger the scale would be to get water from the Great Lakes or Miss across the continental divide.

alexschief
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby alexschief » August 19th, 2021, 8:46 am

The problems with water pipelines aren't just technical, they are deeply political. Most of the Great Lakes states have been losing population to the south and southwest. It's difficult to imagine these states agreeing to send water resources to prop up the places that have spent over half a century gaining at their expense. Certainly not for anything less than an exorbitant fee.

MNdible
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby MNdible » August 19th, 2021, 9:19 am

And as soon as you touch the Great Lakes watershed, you'd need to get Canada to sign off on it as well.

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VacantLuxuries
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby VacantLuxuries » August 19th, 2021, 9:32 am

I have to imagine that the constant suggestions of water pipelines to the west coast has more to do with a 'We want a solution that the federal government bankrolls" than anything else.

If they looking for a serious solution entirely under their jurisdiction, California should have been building desalination plants all through the last drought and could have been selling water back to NV and AZ instead of taking it all from the Colorado River and exporting it in the form of almonds.

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby SurlyLHT » August 19th, 2021, 10:29 am

I think our global warming problem is going to ultimately force people out of the south. I spent 4 days in Phoenix at 110-115 degrees per day and 90 at night. It was brutal. Even on our harshest MN winter days....you can always bundle up and get through it. This was unbearable. Plus......they are going to run out of water at some point. I can't believe people think they are going to solve this problem.
I agree, between that and rising sea-levels on the coasts. The costs to maintain some of the communities between rising sea-levels, dire droughts and harsher storms is just going to price some folks out. (Although we have our own drought issues as well, but this thus far has been an issue for several month and not years.)

As an aside, I was in PA and NJ this past week and I must say I was like, "Oh, I can see why we rank so high in those X,Y,Z rankings.

We need to stay aggresive about promoting and creating a better MSP for all however. We need to close the Achievement Gaps, the home-ownership and wealth gaps since it is both a moral obligation and our economic future depends on it.

RedDutch
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby RedDutch » August 20th, 2021, 4:54 am

What did you observe in PA and NJ to make you think that?

martykoessel
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby martykoessel » August 20th, 2021, 9:38 am

I like Philly.
Also, we need to focus on water management issues here in the Twin Cities, too, and in Minnesota as a whole. There's not a lot of room for smugness. My visits to Phoenix haven't ever made me want to live there, but its metro area has made impressive strides in planning for water shortages. Whether those measures will be sufficient is an open question. Las Vegas might be even further ahead in adjusting to its drier future.

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby SurlyLHT » August 20th, 2021, 11:34 am

What did you observe in PA and NJ to make you think that?
I'm a runner, but the biggest things was the parks and our infrastructure. I realized why we rank so high in parks and how glad I am to be near the Grand Rounds and to be able to run around our lakes and the river. I also thought our infrastructure on averaged seemed to be better maintained, but we have some advantages there of being a younger city.


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