Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Parks, Minneapolis Public Schools, Density, Zoning, etc.
Ohiosotan
City Center
Posts: 31
Joined: April 15th, 2016, 7:31 am

Re: Minneapolis Population Growth - Onward to 500k!

Postby Ohiosotan » February 28th, 2020, 1:06 pm

A little harsh... ex Minneapolitan, now Columbusian - I would argue Short North is more vibrant and walkable than Uptown, North Loop, or NE.

Yes they lack the fancy stuff (trains and bike lanes) but the city is rapidly urbanizing. I would say its about 15 years behind Minneapolis in amenities. They haven't had to face being a city yet so they are warming up to it. It is also a metro area that is half the size of the Twin Cities but predicted to add another million people in the next 20 years. If we can keep 300k of that in the city center, thats an entirely new story.
It may seem harsh, but Columbus has been deferring improvements for a long time: the goal of 10,000 downtown residents has taken 20 years as of this year. And the thing about the Short North is that that's all there is for a vibrant (non-OSU) neighborhood in a city of 900k and it's been hyper-gentrified, not quite like its heyday in the 00s when I hung out there. Even though many of our districts aren't as extensive (Short North is still short at a mile long) I'd take all of the smaller districts here which each have their own flavor and add up to much more than a mile. Columbus has put off investing in the inner-city because annexations hide urban areas on the west, south, east and northeast sides hemorrhaging 1/5 to 1/4 of their populations as of the last 2010 census which one doesn't see when just looking at population totals for the city. Reaching a downtown population of 10,000 was a goal set 20 years ago and only being obtained today. That metric is similar to just about any other and it's hard to believe that in just 15 years they'll add another 40k and light rail and bikeways and repopulate most urban neighborhoods that have seen free-falling populations. Maybe things will start to accelerate, but I'm not seeing any indicators that would point towards that trend.

twincitizen
Moderator
Posts: 6279
Joined: May 31st, 2012, 7:27 pm
Location: Standish-Ericsson

Re: Minneapolis City Planning Commission

Postby twincitizen » February 3rd, 2021, 8:36 pm

If the official Census population approaches 440k , each ward will hold around 33,800 residents (+/- 5%). That's up from the 29,429 that the current wards were drawn at (based on the 2010 Census), so each ward will have to hold an additional 4,371 people (technically ~3,000-6,000 using the extremes of the 5% tolerance permitted, but it'll be closer to the middle).

I heard that the City Charter specifically says ward boundaries are to be drawn from the corners inward, so that would seem to explain why Wards 2, 3, 6 & 7 look the way they do. Point being that if you were trying to specifically draw one "central downtown" ward or one "greater university" ward, that may not be possible. Wards 2, 3, 6, and 7 will all definitely see some pretty significant shifting around where their borders meet. Despite the massive growth along the Greenway and Lyndale, I could see Ward 10's shape not changing a whole lot, just shedding its southern bits (East Harriet neighborhood) to Wards 8 and/or 13. Ward 4 (far north) hasn't increased population at all and will need to expand southward, pushing Ward 5 further south, likely pulling Bryn Mawr and/or a bit of the North Loop into it.
Quoting myself here, but with the 2021 election season heating up, I wonder if this might be Lisa Goodman's last term. She lives in Bryn Mawr, which could very easily get absorbed into Ward 5 post-2021. Wards 4 and 5 haven't really grown at all, relative to many other parts of the city, which means they'll each need to grow to absorb another ~4,000 people. Assuming that neither 4 or 5 jump across the river to pick up a piece of NE, Ward 4 will absorb part of current Ward 5, resulting in 5 pushing even further south to compensate. Meanwhile, Ward 7 will need to shrink due to downtown population growth. That would likely put Goodman's Bryn Mawr home in Ward 5, which would still be majority Northside, and set up a contest she would likely lose. That combined with her having been in office since 1997(!), and yeah...smart money is that she'll hang it up after a final 2-year term in '22-23 (and for the record she will absolutely win again this year).

Silophant
Moderator
Posts: 4066
Joined: June 20th, 2012, 4:33 pm
Location: Whimsical NE

Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby Silophant » February 3rd, 2021, 9:24 pm

Fingers crossed.

SurlyLHT
Wells Fargo Center
Posts: 1010
Joined: February 21st, 2017, 3:50 pm

Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby SurlyLHT » February 4th, 2021, 5:44 pm

Ward 5 has seen a lot more growth than Ward 4. Ward 4 could go closer to W. Broadway and Ward 5 could easily into North Loop directly West. I wouldn't assume it's going directly south into Bryn Mawr. Also the Zip Code 55411 which mirrorsand is smaller than the current Ward 5 boundaries has 31,183 people per 2019 Census Data. (Most of the growth has been along the W. Broadway, Penn Ave, Glenwood, and 55 are all in Ward 5)

StandishGuy
Block E
Posts: 20
Joined: January 29th, 2021, 4:24 pm

Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby StandishGuy » February 6th, 2021, 2:25 pm

How would someone determine current populations of Minneapolis wards using Census data?

StandishGuy
Block E
Posts: 20
Joined: January 29th, 2021, 4:24 pm

Re: Minneapolis Population / Density - General Discussion

Postby StandishGuy » February 6th, 2021, 4:34 pm

Here's a link to the Metropolitan Council's 2019 estimates for municipalities in the 7- county metro area. https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... px#content

Minneapolis: 435,885
St. Paul: 315,925


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