urbanMSP

On the edge of my seat waiting for someone to admit in a couple weeks that it's just that their lease was up for renewal and the rent was going further up than they were willing to accept.

With all the closings of the past year is there any actual evidence that retail rent pressure is still to the upside in the area?

I happened to drive through Uptown today and it really is barren. Corner door to Calhoun Square is boarded up (under construction?), and most of the Hennepin storefronts between Lake and Lagoon are empty. It's not great.

A few months back on one of these topics there was the sentiment that the media was unfairly pinning the pandemic impacts on the city and that it’s actually more or less ‘as bad’ all over.

On Saturday I had a buddy visit who lives in Golden Valley and came here directly from a grad party in the far northern burbs. The first comment out of his mouth when he walked in was that downtown freaking Anoka looked lively and as good or better than he ever recalled and that coming down Hennepin, Uptown looked like a dystopian movie set.

We had lunch in NE yesterday and went DT Whole Foods to buy steaks......there were a lot of people out and about

We had lunch in NE yesterday and went DT Whole Foods to buy steaks......there were a lot of people out and about

Yes, my girlfriend went out in NE with some friends on Saturday. After my buddies comment I asked her and she said that NE was fun and seemed relatively normal.

That whole side of uptown is in pretty bad shape. I biked around downtown this weekend and it was lively. Some empty store fronts but not as bad as uptown. Its pretty clear while rent might be a factor there is alot more going on then just rent and the pandemic. If it was just that why would north loop and NE retail be doing well.

So, if businesses are moving closing anyway, can someone enlighten me as to what incentive they would have to lie and blame the crime problem (or difficulty of parking) instead of just being honest and saying they had lease issues? After all, you do see it all the time where there's signs "Lost Our Lease- Everything Must Go!"

I like to think people are basically honest, unless maybe there's a specific incentive for them to lie.

Right. They're way more likely to lose customers by blaming crime and unrest than by saying "Uptown is too expensive, come visit us on Grand."

While some do lie if there business idea fails. But this is not the case. They were successful and have been for 35 years. The cities leaders have more or less left uptown to fend for itself. Lyn Lake is doing fine. While some places have closed ie blue door, muddy waters. There have been new places to open as well to replace them. Lyndale is recovering pretty well. Why is Hennepin struggling. I refuse to believe rent is the only cause for this difference. People are far to entrenched in there political ideals these days and things must fit a certain narrative.

I'd like to think that too, but the evidence is that many (not all) business owners would prefer to place the blame on anything else rather than admit that their business, or even a single outpost of their business, couldn't make it forever.

The most recent example that comes to mind is I Like You moving from 1st Ave NE to Johnson St. The first interview with the owner said that they were moving because the neighborhood had changed and become too bustling (a nightmare scenario for a gift shop, I guess), but then a few weeks later she admitted it was because their lease was up and the rent was going to quadruple.

The most recent example that comes to mind is I Like You moving from 1st Ave NE to Johnson St. The first interview with the owner said that they were moving because the neighborhood had changed and become too bustling (a nightmare scenario for a gift shop, I guess), but then a few weeks later she admitted it was because their lease was up and the rent was going to quadruple.

I don't think this is the slam dunk you think it is. While good urbanists like us might think those things are unrelated, I think a lot of people would look at those two things and think that they are actually linked.

Boom Island Brewery guy made up a bunch of stuff when he moved from N Mpls to Minnetonka. It happens all the time, when you've been around the block a few time you know not to take small business owners statements at face value.

Agreed. It does happen where its rent related but with the amount of empty retail on this side of uptown I think its bold to assume it can only be rent related. Given how much better lyndale is doing, I doubt rent is that much cheaper a few blocks down given that both are bustling streets.

The area is just gonna have to do a full re-set. Rents probably are too high currently, although I have a hard time believing that Juut was staring at a massive rent increase given the condition of the immediate area (although who knows, maybe they had a really long term lease that was way below market by today’s standard).

So I believe them when they say crime and unrest is the discrete cause, but it seems likely that crime and unrest is a bigger factor than it would be if those blocks of Uptown hadn’t done the whole national retailer thing and basically priced the whole area to perfection...

TL:DR Crime/unrest is a real issue, but there are underlying reasons why it’s a bigger issue there than at, say, LynnLake.

Well said! It can and imo is both. Rent and crime/unrest together are at play.

Uptown retail/hospitality might go through a period where national chains and high concept high achieving concepts shun the area. Maybe picks up a bit of punk crust that some feel it once had. The location is too good to be down for long. Houses are still expensive in the area that's for sure.

^I think that's basically right. I just worry how long it will take and how bad it will be in the meantime. In my personal opinion, the turning point might be when we see a couple distressed commercial sales, or even a commercial foreclosure or two. That would be a big signal that the model that was tried and failed around Hennepin and Lake has failed and needs a hard re-boot. Basically, it would be an acknowledgement that the underwriting that went into the buildings the last time they sold is no longer valid. Calhoun Square/Seven Points recently traded at a much lower valuation than it's prior sale (if I remember correctly), so that may be the first step...

There's a lot of stuff closed in the Uptown area, but what's interesting is that the stretch of Hennepin from Lake to 31st looks better than it has since essentially pre-uprising. A few closed-up places, but decent foot traffic and open businesses not boarded up.

On a high level, I think what's considered to be the "cool" area of the city is just changing. The change we're seeing now is Uptown to North Loop. 10 years ago, the North Loop was a fraction of what it is today; Uptown had everything. Retail cycles happen, and Uptown will likely have to change a before returning to what it was.