Future Cars: Electric and Autonomous Vehicles

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MNdible
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby MNdible » April 11th, 2018, 1:55 pm

Except that autonomous cars definitely are going to happen, for better or worse.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby mplsjaromir » April 11th, 2018, 3:11 pm

There will be self-driving features and limited routes populated by self driving vehicles. But self driving livery vehicles integrating into existing cities? Not in our lifetime.

karen nelson
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby karen nelson » April 13th, 2018, 4:18 pm

Waymo is already taxing people around Phoenix without drivers just fine - not that they won't have accidents, but overall - Google seems to have already figured this out at least for a city like Phoenix. And they are starting to test in other cities.

Everything that makes AVs work keeps getting better and cheaper. Velodyne makes expensive lidar but it keeps getting cheaper and just read some other company is coming out with way cheaper lidar to try to unseat Velodyne. The processing power made by the likes of Nvidia keeps getting cheaper, AI keeps getting better, and electric vehicles - the ultimate fleet vehicle will keep getting cheaper with cheaper batteries.

AVs will be happening. At the worst, they will only be able to operate in select cities with maybe some help/restrictions from certain streets, areas with those cities, by 2021.

I think AV shuttles could be the killer app of AVs, as they could be cheap and run fixed routes frequently so never have to walk more than a couple of blocks for one or wait more than a few minutes, but unfortunately I think AV single-occupant cars will end up so cheap, flexible, and good at that they do, that only way people use shuttles is if most congested cities force it via congestion pricing or lane, pick-up preferences for multi user vehicles.
Last edited by karen nelson on April 13th, 2018, 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

karen nelson
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby karen nelson » April 13th, 2018, 4:19 pm

So I'm working on a list of all the good and bad for cities, our streets, our built environment, our transportation folks think will come from AV revolution...will post for comments in a few days.

DanPatchToget
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby DanPatchToget » April 13th, 2018, 7:05 pm

I believe it was in Burnsville's Comprehensive Plan it was mentioned traffic lights would no longer be needed with AVs. Everyone wants to use AVs instead of driving, biking, or walking right?

karen nelson
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Re: RE: Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby karen nelson » April 16th, 2018, 7:47 pm

I believe it was in Burnsville's Comprehensive Plan it was mentioned traffic lights would no longer be needed with AVs. Everyone wants to use AVs instead of driving, biking, or walking right?
The no traffic light thing seems way further out than AVs becoming vast majority of trips/miles.

Even the very optimistic Tony Seba who predicts something like 90+ percent of miles/trips in cities by share ride AVs by 2030 ....I think says about 40 perecnt of vehicles will still be individual owned vehicle (the 60 percent of fleet AVs will just do way more trips than individually-owned vehicles).

The individuals owning those not-ride-shared cars will have a choice if they want autonomous or not, since driver is already in car anyways, no cost savings by ebing autonomous.

- I suspect there will be aways be a decent minority of people who both have reason to own individual car even when ride-share AVs very cheap and won't want autonomous vehicle...or could just have a 15 year car in good shape and place to park it, so they just don't want to give up.

Anyone who has to carry a lot of gear in their vehicle on regular basis, like contractor, family with kids and sports gear, car seats etc...will still want an individualy owned car...and thus may not have it be autonomous.

I can see DUI drivers forced to use AVs, and eventually even individually owned vehicles may be required to be autonomous in certain city limits etc just for safety and traffic efficiencies, but I think that is further off than 2030.

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Multimodal
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Multimodal » April 16th, 2018, 7:59 pm

Nice analysis.

Yes, if you run a business with owned tools/product, then you will likely own a (business) vehicle.

I wonder about kids, though. If we moved to a model where sports equipment was rented (like transportation), it wouldn’t have to be lugged around. In terms of car seats, they’re about safety and mostly at higher rates of speed. If AVs are going slowly in urban areas (25 mph and less, which may be what cities will push for), and AVs are super safe, why have car seats—especially if AVs have seats facing the center, with room for a stroller in the center.

DanPatchToget
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby DanPatchToget » April 16th, 2018, 9:06 pm

Will kids and pretty much anyone who currently isn't allowed to operate a vehicle be able to use an AV on their own? This assumes the vehicle is fully autonomous and the rider doesn't need to take control at all.

karen nelson
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby karen nelson » April 17th, 2018, 12:25 pm

Will kids and pretty much anyone who currently isn't allowed to operate a vehicle be able to use an AV on their own? This assumes the vehicle is fully autonomous and the rider doesn't need to take control at all.
sure - parents use Uber to ferry their older kids a lot already - I'm sure kids of a certain age will be allowed to use them - may have to be city or state laws to protect AV providers - or they would just likely ban kids of any age to cover their butts. I'm sure they will have cameras on the interior of all these cars for safety reasons, to deal with people who damage them, puke in them, litter etc. - so I'm sure parents will have ability to monitor their kids in these pods.

I still hope medium dense cities will have their act together enough to incentivize small shuttles as tweener option between traditional transit like heavily-used high volume bus routes, BRT and LRT - and single-occupant vehicles. If door-to-door ride share, single occupant cars/pods are as cheap some folks think they will be, in say 10-15 years, then congestion is huge issue. If there are small AV shuttles that say can avoid a congestion tax, or get priority on the road, that can carry 8-12 people, then they could even consider have special shuttles dedicated to just kids at say, school times/routes. Kids may still need adults in their multi-occupant shuttles, buses but at least adult doesn't have to worry about driving and will have less worries about kids getting run over by when they get out, so they can concentrate on supervising the kids.

Once again, all this intergrated tech is going to bring huge privacy and data protection issues as these private companies will have your every movement recorded.

Multimodal
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Multimodal » April 17th, 2018, 2:19 pm

Once again, all this intergrated tech is going to bring huge privacy and data protection issues as these private companies will have your every movement recorded.
It would not surprise me one bit if some of these vehicles dispense with windows, ostensibly in the name of safety or cost or whatever, and replace them initially with a camera-based view of the outside… that, over time, would helpfully display the most relevant ads to you on your journey.

Or, in their ride hailing app: “Watch this 2-minute video [ad] and get a free ride!”

Or what about a virtual/holographic/AR “conductor” who tells jokes, shares memes, or gives information (tourism), and whom you can tip for good service.

So many ways to monetize.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby mplsjaromir » July 23rd, 2018, 5:32 am

Asking your suppliers to pay you back profits they've already booked because you're running out of cash: a normal thing that non-distressed companies do all the time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks ... 1532301091

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Bob Stinson's Ghost
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Bob Stinson's Ghost » July 23rd, 2018, 7:03 am

Asking your suppliers to pay you back profits they've already booked because you're running out of cash: a normal thing that non-distressed companies do all the time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks ... 1532301091
You seem to have an axe to grind regarding Tesla. I'm wondering what part of it you object to.

Silophant
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Silophant » July 23rd, 2018, 7:28 am

I bet it's the union-busting.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby mplsjaromir » July 23rd, 2018, 9:15 am

Asking your suppliers to pay you back profits they've already booked because you're running out of cash: a normal thing that non-distressed companies do all the time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks ... 1532301091

You seem to have an axe to grind regarding Tesla. I'm wondering what part of it you object to.

I abhor charlatans. You were not around, but the “Retiredbanker” Era of Urbanmsp.com was very illustrative.

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Bob Stinson's Ghost
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Bob Stinson's Ghost » July 23rd, 2018, 9:46 am

Elon Musk has racked up enough bona fide provable successes to disqualify him from being a charlatan. Jia Yueting *is* a charlatan. Faraday Future is 100% pure vapor and has delivered nothing. They aren't even doing Formula E anymore.

Elon Musk is a tragic visionary who chronically overpromises and under delivers. Tesla is probably doomed, but I admire anyone gutsy enough to even try what he's attempting to do.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby mplsjaromir » July 23rd, 2018, 9:49 am

He called a guy who saved a bunch of kids a pedo because he made fun of his dumb rocket booster submarine/coffin.

The Tesla Model S is a pretty neat $80K car, but most $80K cars are pretty neat. Somehow they are building 5000 model 3s a week but no where near that many are being registered.

He is a charlatan, pure and simple.

mamundsen
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby mamundsen » July 23rd, 2018, 10:07 am

If a major automaker bought Tesla, would it be profitable within a year? I think it would be awesome to see a Jeep/Dodge buyout of Tesla. Imagine an electric wrangler. 💰

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Tiller
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Tiller » July 23rd, 2018, 10:14 am

If a major automaker bought Tesla, would it be profitable within a year? I think it would be awesome to see a Jeep/Dodge buyout of Tesla. Imagine an electric wrangler. 💰
Plug-in hybrid wranglers are coming soon, 2020 I think.

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Bob Stinson's Ghost
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Bob Stinson's Ghost » July 23rd, 2018, 10:20 am

He called a guy who saved a bunch of kids a pedo because he made fun of his dumb rocket booster submarine/coffin.

The Tesla Model S is a pretty neat $80K car, but most $80K cars are pretty neat. Somehow they are building 5000 model 3s a week but no where near that many are being registered.

He is a charlatan, pure and simple.
I can tell you're quite committed to your position. Any commentary on SpaceX sticking the landing with those rockets?

mplsjaromir
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby mplsjaromir » July 23rd, 2018, 10:34 am

Who cares? It makes his company slightly more profitable. No other benefit.


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