Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

[grant1simons2]

Did I make it that easy? But yes, it's Dehn. Far from official though. Heard it from a friend who's very involved with the DFL.

[FISHMANPET]

Wasn't his name in that random poll about the mayor's race that happened a few months ago?

[twincitizen]

Also a teetotaler, no?

But on a serious note, Ray Dehn's story is fascinating. I think he should stay right where he is in the House. Good voice to have there (even if he and I disagree on Sunday Sales)

http://turtleroad.org/2016/07/28/raymon ... ative-59b/ (I have no idea what this website is, I just googled his name because I knew he had a pretty wild backstory)

[VAStationDude]

Who?

Seriously unless someone splits the south sw highly engaged budget minded dfler vote, I don't see anyone outside that mold becoming mayor anytime soon. With ranked choice splitting voting blocs is less of a thing than in winner take all single round voting.

[twincitizen]

Quoting myself from the previous page:

Wards 11-12-13 are where the election will be won or lost. Voter turnout for city elections in wards 4 & 5 (North) and ward 2 and even 10 is really, really bad. At the end of the day, way too many people are completely obvious that city elections even exist.

The low turnout in odd-year municipal elections cannot be ignored. Mpls barely cracked 33% turnout in 2013 with a hotly contested mayoral election and a bunch of open seats. Turnout was a paltry 20% in 2009 when Rybak was uncontested. 2017 turnout will probably be pretty close to 2013.

2013 turnout in Minneapolis: http://vote.minneapolismn.gov/www/group ... 126706.pdf
2014 turnout in Minneapolis: http://vote.minneapolismn.gov/www/group ... 134510.pdf

Sidebar: In many wards, 2014 turnout was nearly double that of 2013. And that's with 2014 being a lower turnout year statewide vs. 2013 being "above average" compared to recent municipal elections.

[grant1simons2]

Who?

Seriously unless someone splits the south sw highly engaged budget minded dfler vote, I don't see anyone outside that mold becoming mayor anytime soon. With ranked choice splitting voting blocs is less of a thing than in winner take all single round voting.

I think Dehn is a pretty well known name. I mean he covers most of downtown as well.

[mattaudio]

Few DFLers in Wards 11/12/13 know who Dehn is. May have heard the name, may know he's a DFL legislator, but not even aware he represents Minneapolis. I'm a heavy follower of local politics, and I honestly thought he was from the northern suburbs.

[twincitizen]

If his work at the legislature has built a solid relationship with downtown businesses and residents, that might help. But I'm not sure if he's been in the legislature long enough for that to be true though. He's only been in the House for 4 years. He is very far from a household name on a citywide level. Plus, he'd be splitting the anti-Betsy vote with every other anti-Betsy.

[xandrex]

I think the question for a person like Dehn is (and I'm perhaps really just rephrasing what twincitizen is saying above): What's his appeal that another change candidate doesn't have?

A look at the bills he's been the chief author look like he generally proposes stuff around a few topics: the justice system, Minneapolis transportation items, some racial equity stuff, and animal welfare. Those are all potentially great things to run on, but isn't Nekima a more likely candidate for people to vote for if they're anti-Betsy and worried about social justice issues? She's a prominent figure on the Northside (and now lives there, apparently), she's African-American, and she definitely has more of a youth following than Raymond Dehn.

[grant1simons2]

NOC isn't going to support Nekima though

[xandrex]

I am not really following which advocacy groups are going to support whom (and we're probably too early to speculate where endorsements will go), but I don't know that it necessarily matters. My post above was more asking, "What is going to make Dehn stand out from anyone else running on the anti-Betsy vote?" Is NOC planning to support him? His biggest problem is name recognition—we've already had several people on this board (which is more politically involved in city affairs than the average Minneapolitan) admit they didn't even really know the guy served/lived in North. That's not to count him out, but it's certainly a mark against him.

[MNdible]

Unless Frey decides that he's more powerful as an outspoken Councilmember, I really can't see him not running. He's clearly been positioning himself to run for mayor since the day he was elected.

[grant1simons2]

NOC wants to put forward a candidate of their own, and they're planning on it being Dehn.

[Silophant]

Remember that vote-splitting isn't as big of a deal with ranked choice voting. If the only three people running, (lol yeah right) were Dehn, Levy-Pounds, and Hodges, it doesn't really matter if the anti-Hodges voters go Dehn/Levy-Pounds/Hodges or Levy-Pounds/Dehn/Hodges, at least as far as Hodges losing is concerned. The only way it becomes an issue is if there's significant blocs that choose Hodges as a second choice but opposite anti-Hodges as the first choice, but if that's the case, they aren't really that anti-Hodges at all, are they? Or, I guess it could be an issue if there's more than three approximately equally strong anti-Hodges candidates, but.. that seems unlikely. Even in the 2013 clown car, there were only like four people who had a real chance.

[seanrichardryan]

Frey has his sites set on Washington.

I know of one more notable minneapolitan that will throw their card in the race.

[VAStationDude]

Frey has a pretty good gig right now and would likely lose the mayoral race. I think he biding his time for a run in 2021. Keith Ellison has his congressional seat as long as he wants it. Frey would have a tough time winning a state wide Senate race against even a mediocre gop opponent.

What is the case against Hodges? She hasn't been more forceful police reform and bungled the working families agenda. That's the best I can come up with.

[gpete]

Rep Ellison's seat is a big wildcard. If he retires in the spring to become DNC chair, that would trigger a special election in 2017 (date depends on when he retires).

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[MNdible]

As far as I'm concerned, the case against Hodges is that she's been a complete non-entity. I can't think of a single issue that she's taken the lead on, anything that she's effectively promoted or pushed forward. She's been either invisible or reactive.

The way that Frey acts tells me that he's better suited to an executive position -- I just don't see him enjoying life as a back-bencher house member in the minority party. And I'm not sure why you're so certain that he'd lose. My gut tells me that he could do very well in a ranked choice election.

[EOst]

I have a hard time believing Frey would run unless he had better than "a chance." He's young, and passing leaves him in a very good position for 2021 whoever wins. But losing--and losing his council seat at the same time--puts him in the wilderness for four years while a new crop of people build their profiles.

[twincitizen]

Minneapolis DFL website has been updated with caucus, ward convention, and citywide convention dates: http://www.mpls.dfl.org/

Also, it has Raymond Dehn listed as running for Mayor along with Betsy and Nekima...so I guess that's happening

Precinct caucuses are April 4.

Ward conventions are April 22, 29, and May 6

Citywide convention June 24