Minnesota Governor Election 2018

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Bakken2016
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Bakken2016 » June 4th, 2018, 1:28 pm

Erin Murphy and Erin Maye Quade are the DFL Endorsed candidates.

Jeff Johnson and Donna Bergstrom are GOP endorsed candidates.

Primaries will be tough though, Tim Pawlenty skipped the convention, and is suspected to defeat Johnson in the primary. Walz decided after not getting the endorsement that he will also pursue the primary, as well Lori Swanson just announced she will be joining the race too.

I will be voting for #ErinSquared, due to their progressiveness on many issues in the primary.

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » June 4th, 2018, 1:33 pm

The Swanson thing is a bad look in my book. Run if you want to run.

Bakken2016
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Bakken2016 » June 4th, 2018, 1:41 pm

The Swanson thing is a bad look in my book. Run if you want to run.
Yea I agree, though it might split votes between Walz and Swanson, giving Erin a lead in the primary!

xandrex
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby xandrex » June 4th, 2018, 1:51 pm

Slight technicality on the Walz thing - he didn't decide to run in the primary after not getting the endorsement. He's pretty much said all along that he'd do it.

In any case, we're kind of in an upside down world where a lot of "establishment" types are dismissing party process and the people who normally think the process is broken really want it to be respected, lest a primary ruin the DFL's chances in November.

It just kind of goes to show - people like process when it goes their way, and they don't when it doesn't!

Bakken2016
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Bakken2016 » June 4th, 2018, 1:58 pm

Slight technicality on the Walz thing - he didn't decide to run in the primary after not getting the endorsement. He's pretty much said all along that he'd do it.

In any case, we're kind of in an upside down world where a lot of "establishment" types are dismissing party process and the people who normally think the process is broken really want it to be respected, lest a primary ruin the DFL's chances in November.

It just kind of goes to show - people like process when it goes their way, and they don't when it doesn't!
Oops my bad, I think we should transition to a jungle primary in June instead of the endorsement convention.

twincitizen
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby twincitizen » June 4th, 2018, 2:14 pm

^Agreed in theory (need to think it over fully).

I was riding the fence between Walz and Murphy, definitely leaning Murphy lately. I was fully ready to support Murphy following the unexpected endorsement. Her choice of Erin Maye Quade as running mate immediately pushed me toward supporting Walz, however. Don't get me wrong, I think Rep. Maye Quade is great. But for a governor candidate whose greatest known weakness is electability in greater MN, to double down on that with an inexperienced (first term), uber-progressive metro area running mate, makes no sense at all.

As far as I'm concerned, Erin Murphy had all of the momentum in this race, for about 12 hours, and then threw it away with this boneheaded Lt. Gov choice. How the hell does she not find someone from the range or Duluth? Or even St. Cloud or Roch? Murphy was weak in CD8 to begin with...this makes no sense at all.

Go Walz!

P.S. The path to a Democratic US House majority runs directly through Minnesota. Walz offers a clear advantage in that his coattails could bring Democratic wins in CD1, CD2, CD3 and CD8. I was willing to support Murphy despite her slight disadvantage in this regard, but no longer. Nope. Murphy may well win the Governor's race, but it will be on the strength of the metro vote, and the US House (and MN House) will retain their GOP majorities.

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VacantLuxuries
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby VacantLuxuries » June 4th, 2018, 2:59 pm

But for a governor candidate whose greatest known weakness is electability in greater MN, to double down on that with an inexperienced (first term), uber-progressive metro area running mate, makes no sense at all.
One who also now puts her current MN House seat at greater risk.

twincitizen
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby twincitizen » June 4th, 2018, 3:24 pm

Yes, that too!! Maye Quade won a swing seat by a pretty thin margin in '16. Better hope the people of Apple Valley are still fired up to vote DFL in a non-Presidential year (when turnout is down), AND that the DFL candidate is, y'know, good.

It just doesn't add up. Picking someone from the metro, with minimal experience, and opening a vulnerable seat makes absolutely zero sense from any point of view. How the hell is a freshman metro legislator your first choice? I'm curious who else was on Murphy's list and declined (or was #2 if EMQ declined).

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby LakeCharles » June 4th, 2018, 3:26 pm

I think you guys are really overestimating the importance of a Lt. Gov. on the election.

phop
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby phop » June 4th, 2018, 3:55 pm

I can't wrap my head around this Swanson/Nolan decision. WTF are they both thinking.

Silophant
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Silophant » June 4th, 2018, 4:31 pm

I think you guys are really overestimating the importance of a Lt. Gov. on the election.
I agree - the people who are tuned in enough to pay attention to who the Lt. Gov candidate is also generally understand that the Minnesota Lt. Governor doesn't actually do anything. So, basically, Erin Murphy yoinked away a possibly crucial incumbency advantage in a very competitive district to... get the progressives who were already super fired up about her, as the most progressive candidate in the race, slightly more fired up, for like a week. Obviously my Twitter feed isn't representative of the state electorate, but I don't buy for a second that anyone who was super excited about the EMQ wasn't already 100% behind EM.

Also, yeah, wtf is going on with Swanson? She thinks a surprise defeat in the AG endorsement race is going to translate over into... winning a gubenatorial primary?
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » June 4th, 2018, 9:13 pm

I don't have a strong preference in Walz vs. Murphy, but I think Walz backers tend to overestimate the importance of his appeal outstate. If he does better than Dayton outstate but can't drive big turnout in the metro, he'll lose a close election. The theory of the Murphy-Maye Quade ticket (Erin^2?) is that driving up big margins in the metro and Duluth is a more durable path to a majority.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Didier » June 4th, 2018, 9:52 pm

IMO Walz is much better known that Murphy in general. It'd be one thing if we were talking about one of the big-city mayors, but I doubt most people in the metro had even heard of Erin Murphy before she ran for governor. Same for her running mate.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby MNdible » June 5th, 2018, 9:24 am

Murphy checks the boxes that the progressives want checked, but from what I've seen, she's just not a great candidate. I'm afraid if we put her up against Pawlenty, we're making it way too easy for the Republicans.

twincitizen
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby twincitizen » June 5th, 2018, 9:40 am

I don't have a strong preference in Walz vs. Murphy, but I think Walz backers tend to overestimate the importance of his appeal outstate. If he does better than Dayton outstate but can't drive big turnout in the metro, he'll lose a close election. The theory of the Murphy-Maye Quade ticket (Erin^2?) is that driving up big margins in the metro and Duluth is a more durable path to a majority.
There's no evidence that Walz is unpopular among urban liberals. Murphy turned out to be slightly more popular, but this isn't exactly a Clinton vs. Sanders situation where Murphy supporters are going to stay home. Walz-Flanagan is still a very progressive ticket that damn near everyone in the DFL party can rally behind.

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VacantLuxuries
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby VacantLuxuries » June 5th, 2018, 10:01 am

Walz-Flanagan is still a very progressive ticket that damn near everyone in the DFL party can rally behind.
Not to mention, if the rumors pan out and Ilhan Omar is on the ballot for the 5th, that's a big win for Minneapolis turnout.

xandrex
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby xandrex » June 5th, 2018, 10:08 am

I think any open seat in the 5th, whether it's Ilhan Omar or Scott Dibble (or someone else entirely), would help increase turnout in Minneapolis.

That said, I'm really unsure how Ellison would fare on the statewide ballot (but let's face it, probably better than Pelikan).

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VacantLuxuries
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby VacantLuxuries » June 5th, 2018, 10:12 am

Regarding Dibble, I'd hate to lose such a pro-transit voice in our local legislature.

xandrex
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby xandrex » June 5th, 2018, 10:17 am

Given the zeitgeist of the moment, I think if it's a showdown between the two of them in a primary that Ilhan would prevail.

EOst
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » June 5th, 2018, 10:23 am

There's no evidence that Walz is unpopular among urban liberals. Murphy turned out to be slightly more popular, but this isn't exactly a Clinton vs. Sanders situation where Murphy supporters are going to stay home. Walz-Flanagan is still a very progressive ticket that damn near everyone in the DFL party can rally behind.
We clearly have different Facebook friends. ;)

Maybe you're right, but Rebecca Otto and a lot of big liberal groups just spent months pounding Walz as too conservative, and most of those same groups are going to line up behind Murphy now with the same message. I wouldn't underestimate how much impact that could have by August.


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