2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

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David Greene
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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby David Greene » May 24th, 2017, 11:54 am

Thanks for the bill pointer. The SWLRT stuff *seems* pretty standard, much like what was done for MPR on the Green Line but I'm not certain. Calhoun Isles is very, very close to the ROW (these are the converted silos) and construction concerns seem legit to me. I'm sure it was done for residents who witnessed the arguments that MPR and the Met Council went through and just wanted that all settled legislatively ahead of time.

But yeah, it's definitely a favor for the rich. I'd like to know who originally proposed the language, but my guess is that will never come out.

As for the budget itself, I have no idea what the transit funding numbers mean. ~$1.5MM this year and ~18MM next year for Greater MN transit not only seems weird but also wholly inadequate. The Met Council gets $121MM this year and ~130MM next year, with a small amount of that set aside for special projects. Does anyone know how that affects the transit budget? Is there still a hole?

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby phop » May 24th, 2017, 12:14 pm

Ah, those are the converted silos. The language does make more sense then.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby David Greene » May 24th, 2017, 12:28 pm

Republicans are passing all kinds of objectionable policy and Dayton is wavering on some of it (preemption, for example). Call him!

Honestly, this thing looks like it's heading toward a total trainwreck. Usually governors only call a special session after ironclad agreement with legislative leaders about scope. Dayton's done that before so I can't imagine he forgot this time. Is GOP leadership not able to control their caucus or is it driving a strategy toward the 2018 elections?

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby VacantLuxuries » May 24th, 2017, 1:46 pm

This is a 100% cynical move for 2018 on the part of the MNGOP. They want vetos. A shutdown would be even better. Anything for them to have short term ammunition against Dayton's governorship.

And, if in the process of trying to avoid this very obvious ploy, they get some garbage policies through, even better.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby amiller92 » May 24th, 2017, 1:51 pm

This is a 100% cynical move for 2018 on the part of the MNGOP. They want vetos. A shutdown would be even better. Anything for them to have short term ammunition against Dayton's governorship.

And, if in the process of trying to avoid this very obvious ploy, they get some garbage policies through, even better.
It is a dangerous game and my bet is that it does not work for them (i.e., they will get the bulk of the blame). It's especially dangerous in what's shaping up to be an election cycle in which they will already face strong headwinds.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby David Greene » May 25th, 2017, 10:09 pm

We were up at the capitol earlier tonight. It is very bad.

Big Labor and others are not taking a position on the transportation bill. Smaller outfits like SEIU are working hard but it looks grim. This means transit will be facing a huge budget hole.

If you care about transit, now would be the time to call Gov. Dayton and demand he veto any transportation bill that doesn't fully fund transit.

Dayton is looking like he's going to throw immigrants under the bus by signing the public safety bill and thus banning drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants. If you care about our immigrant brothers and sisters. now would be a good time to call Gov. Dayton.

We were told Dayton will veto preemption so at least that is good. It's not looking good for public employees and teachers.

It sounds like Dayton just wants it to be over. I don't know if he feels he isn't getting public support or if he's just giving up.

Now would be a good time to call Gov. Dayton.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget (Djayton Unchained)

Postby twincitizen » May 26th, 2017, 11:40 am


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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby twincitizen » December 21st, 2017, 2:04 pm

So, as we all know, Tina Smith will be leaving her Lt Gov post to replace Al Franken in the US Senate. The MN Constitution calls for the State Senate President (currently Michelle Fischbach, a Republican) to fill the Lt Gov vacancy. The MN Constitution also says the Lt Gov cannot simultaneously hold other elected office. Senator Fischbach, at least right now, is not planning to vacate her seat in the Senate, despite what the constitution says. If she refuses to leave the Senate, the Senate DFL caucus and/or one of her constituents will almost certainly file a lawsuit to remove her.

The balance of power in the MN Senate is now in play. Republicans held a narrow 34-33 margin, which just increased to 34-32 with the resignation of DFL Senator Dan Schoen. Assuming the DFL holds that southeast metro seat in an early February special election, the GOP's slight 34-33 edge holds, as long as Fischbach remains in her seat, which it appears she will until the MN Supreme Court inevitably rules that she cannot. No lawsuit has been filed yet, as the legislative session does not even begin until February 20. Should the Supreme Court rule that Fischbach must vacate her Senate seat, there will suddenly be a 33-33 tie, and the DFL & GOP will have to negotiate for shared power, committee chairs, etc. A special election for Fischbach's senate seat would have to be called, and by the time that election takes place, the 2018 legislative session might already be over. That special election will have a significant lasting impact through, as the partial term runs until the next MN Senate election in 2020 (MN Senate is not up for election in 2018).

Assuming a DFLer wins Shoen's old seat in February, and assuming the Supreme Court removes Lt. Gov. Fischbach from the State Senate, the DFL (or just Mark Dayton) is still taking an enormous gamble on the odds of a DFLer winning that special election in an exurban/rural St. Cloud area district (heavy GOP advantage under normal circumstances). For that super slim chance of winning DFL control of the MN Senate in 2019-2020, Dayton is laying on the table a US Senate seat (by appointing weak candidate Tina Smith) and the MN Governorship for the remainder of 2018 (should Dayton's health quickly fail) as his bargaining chips. That's an insane bet to take, but maaaaybe it pays off and we have total DFL control of MN Government again in Jan. 2019 (instead of Jan. 2021 after the regularly scheduled State Senate election)

Am I missing anything?

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby MNdible » December 21st, 2017, 2:24 pm

Only thing I'd quibble with is the claim that Tina Smith is a weak candidate -- by all accounts, she's formidable and almost universally respected. I don't think Dayton is appointing her to play this game with the Senate, he's appointing her because he has enormous respect for her.

In any case, the State Constitution ought to be changed such that the Governor can just select their own replacement Lt. Governor, to align with how the US Constitution handles VP vacancies.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby amiller92 » December 21st, 2017, 2:30 pm

I think so. I don't think his decision to appoint Smith had much to do with the Senate majority. I think he thinks Smith is the best person to appoint, and the possibility of a Senate without a GOP majority is just icing on the cake. I also think he's confident in his own health.

The Lt. Governor position doesn't matter at all, so it doesn't matter that it's a Republican. Smith is very much Dayton's go-to person, so he's putting her in a more valuable position.

Btw, I don't know if she's a weak candidate for Senate after doing the job for almost a year. Literally everyone who has worked with her seems to say she's great and super effective, so maybe she can convince constituents she's good in the Senate too. Also, she was a big part of getting him re-elected (and elected in the first place?), so she knows something about running a winning statewide race.

But just as important, I'm not sure who would be a clearly better choice. On pure electability, maybe Walz, but he's currently running for governor and, significantly, a white man. That's a disadvantage within the party when appointing someone to replace a white guy who was allegedly gropey. People like Peggy Flanagan and Ilhan Omar would make big chunks of the party base happy, but would be just as big of a re-election risk and have even less experience. Maybe Keith Ellison although were I him, I'm not sure I'd sign up for the electoral risk, and, again, man. Otto and Swanson seem like rivals of Team Dayton (and I don't have any confidence in the latter).

I suppose Betty McCollum would seem like a nature fit, except that it doesn't seem like anyone is particularly excited about her.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby twincitizen » December 21st, 2017, 2:34 pm

So you think Dayton still would have appointed Smith if the DFL had control of the MN Senate? I'm not saying he definitely wouldn't have appointed her, but it would have changed the stakes considerably. Right now, it's looking like Smith's 2018 opponent will be Karin Housley or Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty would seem a bad candidate at first glance, but running against someone like Smith with near-zero name recognition could give the GOP an edge. Karin Housley would be a very tough GOP opponent as well.

As far as changing the MN Constitution, I'd sooner just get rid of the useless Lt. Gov. position entirely and have the Secretary of State serve as acting/interim governor in the event of incapacity/vacancy, as several other states do.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby David Greene » December 21st, 2017, 2:38 pm

Betty McCollum doesn't want the seat. When the Dems re-take the House she is going to be very powerful.

I also think Smith is a weak candidate. Really, almost anyone appointed would be. She does not have the electoral base an incumbent would normally have. If Dayton had appointed someone who had won an election, at least that person would have some foundation to work with.

Tina Smith screams "political insider" which is pretty much opposite of the zeitgeist right now.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby EOst » December 21st, 2017, 2:41 pm

I suppose Betty McCollum would seem like a nature fit, except that it doesn't seem like anyone is particularly excited about her.
She wouldn't want it. She'll be running Appropriations if/when the Democrats take the House.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby fehler » December 21st, 2017, 4:15 pm

How does one become the President of the Senate? Can the MN Senate select a different person to fill that position before Tina Smith vacates the Lt. Governorship?

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby KML_1981 » December 22nd, 2017, 9:25 am

How does one become the President of the Senate? Can the MN Senate select a different person to fill that position before Tina Smith vacates the Lt. Governorship?
Chosen by the body. However, a special session would need to be called before the official appointment of Tina to the seat (Jan. 3rd according to most reports) to let the Senate vote a new Senate President into that position. That special session can only be called by the Governor.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby amiller92 » December 22nd, 2017, 10:45 pm

Yes, I think he would have appointed Smith regardless of the Senate situation. You can't underestimate how much he values her.


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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby twincitizen » December 28th, 2017, 4:20 pm

Per MPR News today, it looks like Tom Bakk is not going along with the GOP's idea to call a special session to elect a DFLer as Senate President, who would immediately become Lt. Gov. and resign from the Senate. Even if Bakk and the DFL were on board with this "compromise", it would have to be a DFL Senator from a safe district, who also happens to be close enough to retirement that they're cool with being Lt. Gov. for 1 year instead of Senator for 3 more years. Pretty much down to Dick Cohen or Ann Rest, and I'm guessing both said "no thanks", leaving the DFL without anyone interested in the job (again, assuming they were in a mood to go along with the GOP's idea). Presumably the DFL Senate Caucus would have been able to extract some policy or bonding bill concessions/promises from GOP leadership in exchange for taking said deal. Oh, and this plan would leave the DFL at a 34-32 disadvantage to begin the session, as a special election for the vacated seat won't take place any sooner than late March, most likely after the session has begun.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby amiller92 » January 2nd, 2018, 2:23 pm

Yeah, I can't see how the DFL would agree to that "compromise" in any way.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby Bakken2016 » January 2nd, 2018, 3:49 pm

Yeah, I can't see how the DFL would agree to that "compromise" in any way.
Yea and they shouldn't have to agree to a compromise. The GOP is just trying to bend laws in their favor like they always do.

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Re: 2017-18 MN Legislative Session & Budget - Battle for the Senate Majority?

Postby MNdible » January 2nd, 2018, 4:33 pm

The current rules just don't make any sense. A compromise that resulted in Dayton being able to appoint somebody from his own party to the position of Lt. Gov. really ought to be in the best interest of everybody, and the GOP shouldn't have to lose a seat to comply with the constitution.


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