Minnesota Governor Election 2022

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Didier
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Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby Didier » January 4th, 2021, 7:47 pm

Strib had a story today on the underwhelming field trip of potential GOP candidates.

https://m.startribune.com/gop-field-for ... 600006424/

I find it very strange they decided to include Chad Greenway, who besides having no qualifications to be governor also has no obvious political affiliation. I just checked his Twitter to be sure and 90 percent of his posts since December are about football.

uptownbro
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby uptownbro » January 4th, 2021, 7:55 pm

I will be very curious if walz even runs in 2022. It seems to me half the state feels he has gone to far while the other half thinks he hasnt gone far enough.
I dont see the my pillow guy or really any Trumpian candidate going anywhere given up badly trump ran compared to biden state wide.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby Didier » January 4th, 2021, 9:06 pm

I might be out of touch with outstate Minnesota but it’s hard to imagine Walz doing anything but waltzing to a new term in 2022. He’s very hard to vilify as an elite urban communist, and nothing he’s advocated for has been particularly extreme or controversial. In other words, the opposition to him feels like pretty generic GOP outrage that would be directed at any Democrat.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby uptownbro » January 4th, 2021, 9:16 pm

Well it may be generic somewhat bases outrage I think you truly underestimating how greater mn views him.
Its actually very easy to do so(I mostly like him and would vote for him again). He let the two major cities burn in there opinion while crashing the economy over something he cant truly control. Putting many of them in already struggling areas out of work with little support.

Didier
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby Didier » January 4th, 2021, 9:37 pm

I don’t think the people you’re talking about are voting for any Democrat, though.

I also don’t think they’re more likely to vote for the replacement Democrat who is probably from the Twin Cities and more ideological.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby uptownbro » January 4th, 2021, 9:47 pm

He did do well in his old district in 2018 for a dem

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby uptownbro » January 5th, 2021, 1:46 am

Correction.
Based on the 2018 results he actually carried his old district in 2018. Which is slight lean gop and very republican outside of the Mankato and rochester areas. It’s not that they are more likely to vote for a Democrat from the metro area but that he’s losing support from part of the coalition that powered his first win. So he did have some support in greater MN.
I could see some former supporters flipping in that area plus a midterm back lash to the party in the whitehouse. I hope I’m wrong but that’s my hot take.

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Tiller
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby Tiller » January 5th, 2021, 7:08 am

I feel like Walz is going to have a tough time. The republican base in greater Minnesota is losing its mind about masks and "rioters". The urban-rural divide might get real bad for the DFL. Look at Bakk and whoever else breaking off in the Iron range. It's gotta be our priority to grow and densify the metro as much as possible to stay ahead of this.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby alexschief » January 5th, 2021, 8:24 am

Let's remember that polarization goes both ways. The GOP has lost ground in the suburbs at the same time that the DFL has lost ground in rural areas. That's a demographic trade that GOP has clearly tried to hasten, for reasons that elude me, since the DFL would take it every time. The suburbs and cities are growing and most rural areas are not. That polarization is a bad thing though, and I think it helped that Walz ran with a message and a campaign focused on unity. He'll probably try it again, but he can also count on a DFL landslide in the metro if any of these leading GOP hopefuls get the nomination.

I've got to say too, that North and South Dakota have almost double the rate of COVID deaths as Minnesota, and they had the advantage of getting hit way later. If Minnesota had the same rate of death as North Dakota, 4,318 more people would've died by now. I'd like to think Walz can run on that.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby VacantLuxuries » January 5th, 2021, 9:58 am

I've got to say too, that North and South Dakota have almost double the rate of COVID deaths as Minnesota, and they had the advantage of getting hit way later. If Minnesota had the same rate of death as North Dakota, 4,318 more people would've died by now. I'd like to think Walz can run on that.
And some of the people who would disagree with his choices are already self-sorting out of the 2022 equation.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby BigIdeasGuy » January 5th, 2021, 1:09 pm

The last time a R has won statewide in Minnesota in T-Paw in 2006. And since then it's like Dem's are winning most statewide races rather comfortably. Until the GOP can break that streak, there is no reason to predict doom and gloom for Walz or any statewide Dem. I'm not saying Walz or any statewide Dem can't lose, they certainly can, they are still going to have to work to be elected but they are in a much much better position than any R.

And no one on that list is going to cause the Walz campaign to panic.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby EOst » January 5th, 2021, 1:10 pm

How many of those outstate voters who hate Walz voted for Biden? You would need a whole lot of Biden voters to vote GOP in 2022 to unseat Walz, and that just doesn't feel like a very likely formula.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby uptownbro » January 5th, 2021, 1:34 pm

Its the other way around in my opinion. How many people voted for Walz in 2018 but ended up voting for trump in 2020. Walz won by over 11% in 2018 vs biden who won it by 7%. Still a large margin but one that is not nearly as strong and was very much powered by the metro area. If even some of the support slips its a 50/50 ball game. Can the DFL count on the suburbs to be part of a solid turnout model now?
I just think walz is in a much weaker position then many here and if he had to run against a business owner who went under due to the shutdowns I cant truly see him winning that contest . I hope he does win as hes really the best example of my own political views in an elected official.

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VacantLuxuries
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby VacantLuxuries » January 5th, 2021, 4:50 pm

It's something I am concerned about, especially if the Dems don't take the Senate and we get a red wave backlash election following two years of gridlock.

But Trump also has a not-zero amount of followers who came out to vote for him and sat out 2018. Without him on the top of the ticket, would there be enough angry exurbanites to outweigh the cities?

Given how in 2010 Dayton squeaked into office by 0.2% of the vote thanks to the Libertarian candidate, maybe the better question is who is running for that ticket, and can they convince enough fiscal conservatives who want weed legalized to reject the GOP's ticket?

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby Didier » January 5th, 2021, 11:20 pm

I’m just still so confused at the Chad Greenway inclusion.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby xandrex » January 6th, 2021, 11:32 am

Its the other way around in my opinion. How many people voted for Walz in 2018 but ended up voting for trump in 2020. Walz won by over 11% in 2018 vs biden who won it by 7%. Still a large margin but one that is not nearly as strong and was very much powered by the metro area. If even some of the support slips its a 50/50 ball game. Can the DFL count on the suburbs to be part of a solid turnout model now?
I just think walz is in a much weaker position then many here and if he had to run against a business owner who went under due to the shutdowns I cant truly see him winning that contest . I hope he does win as hes really the best example of my own political views in an elected official.
I don't know why we'd be worried about suburban turnout. The suburbs always turn out - they're often filled with exactly the type of voters who turn out every election.

Maybe the argument is that the suburbs turn out but vote for a GOP candidate. But I think Republicans have an issue here. To win Greater Minnesota, they need a Trump-like person. But suburban voters pretty clearly rejected that type of candidate in 2020. A metro-friendly GOP candidate would have trouble exciting Greater Minnesota (see, uh, Jeff Johnson and TPaw).

It's not implausible that Walz loses in 2022. He's unlikely to cruise to an 11-point re-election. But let's remember that Hennepin County's margin for Biden exceeded the margin for every Trump-voting county in the state combined. The GOP needs an absolutely massive surge in the metro to have a chance. I'd much rather be in Walz's position than [insert generic Republican here] at this point.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby uptownbro » January 6th, 2021, 7:30 pm

Well the gop might not even be a party come 2022 so my comment is now outdated

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby BoredAgain » January 7th, 2021, 10:06 am

Its the other way around in my opinion. How many people voted for Walz in 2018 but ended up voting for trump in 2020. Walz won by over 11% in 2018 vs biden who won it by 7%. Still a large margin but one that is not nearly as strong and was very much powered by the metro area. If even some of the support slips its a 50/50 ball game. Can the DFL count on the suburbs to be part of a solid turnout model now?
I just think walz is in a much weaker position then many here and if he had to run against a business owner who went under due to the shutdowns I cant truly see him winning that contest . I hope he does win as hes really the best example of my own political views in an elected official.
I see the percentages quoted often, but that is not the full story. Donald Trump drove record turnout both for and against him.

2018 Votes for Walz: 1,393,096 (53.8%)
2018 Votes for Johnson: 1,097,705 (42.4%)

2020 votes for Biden: 1,717,077 (52.4%)
2020 votes for Trump: 1,484,065 (45.3%)

If every Trump voter turned out and voted for generic republican in 2022, but only the Walz voters from 2018 and not the extra people that turned out for Biden vote, then generic Republican would win, but that is HIGHLY unlikely. Almost all of the change in voting percentages out there can be explained away by changing turnout numbers. That is why Stacy Abrams can be thanked for flipping Georgia and our (hopefully) functional federal government for the next few years.

I have left out the third party votes, if you are wondering about percentages above

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby Cat349F » January 8th, 2021, 5:55 pm

As pointed out by uptownbro, both sides have issues with how he handled the riots. The rocks and cows certainly have not warmed up to him.
I think Kendall Qualls could win vs Gov. Walz.
Unsustainable fossil burning fool.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2022

Postby jebr » January 8th, 2021, 8:50 pm

I think basically any Republican is going to have a hard time beating Walz. Not impossible, but quite difficult. While there are many to the left of Walz that have issues with how he's handled some issues, those will almost certainly be fought out in the DFL primary and endorsement process, not the general election. Honestly, he probably has more risk here simply based on the numbers - the people that turn out for primaries generally are more politically active, and if there's a coalition that builds to the left of Walz around a single candidate with decent name recognition, that's going to be tougher for him to overcome than most of the GOP candidates.

The GOP's best chance of having a check on DFL power is through the state Legislature. This will likely be harder when redistricting happens due to population shifts, but still easier than trying to win statewide. The DFL's biggest problem with gaining control of the state Legislature is that a lot of the DFL vote is densely concentrated in Minneapolis, St. Paul, and inner-ring suburbs. New districts will likely be determined by the courts, with an outside chance of a relatively nonpartisan map agreed to by both parties geared towards trying to preserve incumbents' seats. Either way, that likely means that there'll be a lot of safe DFL districts that are (for example) 75/25 DFL/GOP, while safe outstate districts will be closer to 65/35 GOP/DFL simply because there's a larger DFL base spread out in outstate Minnesota than there is a GOP base in Minneapolis or St. Paul.


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