Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Elections - City Councils and Commissions - Policies
alexschief
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby alexschief » June 17th, 2021, 9:07 am

Fascinating results in the DFL Mayoral endorsement.

When boiled down to the three leading candidates, the votes split this way:
Jacob Frey - 1,071
Sheila Nezhad - 937
Kate Knuth - 859

Knuth was eliminated, and almost all her votes went to Nezhad. In the final round, Nezhad led with 1,528 (53.1%) to Frey's 1,158 (40.3%). That's a really impressive result for Nezhad, who certainly has established herself as a realistic option with that result. It's also a big warning to Frey, who has a pretty good organization and still got walloped. It's clear (maybe not surprising) that at least among DFL delegates, there is profound dissatisfaction with his performance.

Now, this really does probably need to come with the caveat that the pool of DFL delegates is not entirely representative of the city as a whole. There was some debate about the composition of delegates related to the City Council races, but this result certainly suggests that the delegate pool was more slanted to the progressive side. Frey won't be thrilled about his performance, but he's clearly the most moderate of the major candidates and I think this performance should be seen as his floor. He's certainly vulnerable, but not doomed to defeat. Last year I thought he was 70% likely to win, recently I thought he was 65%, now I'm probably revising down further to 60%.

It's interesting to see Nezhad and Knuth splitting the progressive vote almost in half, with the leader taking up nearly all of the other's votes. Knuth (full disclosure, I've donated to her) is maybe in a tricky position here. Her path to victory absolutely rests on making it to the final round of counting and taking Nezhad voters' second place selections. This result shows both her viability and also her vulnerability. I wonder if she had gotten Sen. Erin Murphy's endorsement earlier if it would've made a difference. Aside from thinking that she's the right person for the job, I also think that Knuth has a better chance of defeating Frey than Nezhad in the general election, and so I hope that she can pull ahead with normie progressive voters. We'll see, it should be an interesting race down to the wire.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby mplsjaromir » June 17th, 2021, 9:31 am

I hope Shelia wins. Frey is an absolute disaster. Knuth with The University of Oxford and The University of Chicago in her bio raises some big ole red flags for me.

phop
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby phop » June 17th, 2021, 10:41 am

Feels a lot like Wheeler vs Iannarone (Portland mayor 2020).

BigIdeasGuy
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby BigIdeasGuy » June 17th, 2021, 11:28 am

How is being able to say "I've studied at some of the world best and most prestigious institutions of higher learning" a red flag? Should it be a prerequisite for public office, absolutely not. I would, and I'm guess others as well, would appreciate it if you could elaborate on that statement.

alexschief
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby alexschief » June 17th, 2021, 11:40 am

Feels a lot like Wheeler vs Iannarone (Portland mayor 2020).
There are similarities, but I think the main difference is pretty significant: RCV in Minneapolis forecloses the kind of prominent spoiler candidacy that secured Wheeler's re-election. Also thanks to RCV, the presence of two progressive change candidates is different than in Portland, where there was only Iannarone and a small spoiler faction.

On that latter point, if Knuth had magically advanced to the final round instead of Nezhad, she would've won it more decisively than Nezhad. It speaks a little bit more clearly to the challenges of Knuth's positioning in the race; she needs to win enough progressive first choices in order to take Nezhad's voters, but also needs to have enough broad-enough appeal to beat Frey in the final round.

I do think there's a winning coalition of voters dissatisfied with Frey, but there's a potentially decisive subset of these voters who are looking for more stable leadership and subsequently aren't necessarily receptive for a mayor running without a lot of governing experience and a background as an activist. Knuth's path to victory probably includes this group, Nezhad's path to victory means outnumbering them.

billhelm
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby billhelm » June 17th, 2021, 2:36 pm

I was a delegate in Ward 11. I wasn't contacted by any of the 3 ward council campaigns other than the generic stuff that I already get, which surprised me a bit. Got lots of caucus contacts for the city wide races in which I ultimately was not chosen to be a delegate. I backed Jeremy but I'm not super surprised that Koski did so well - there's been a groundswell with her - I get the sense that her ground game is good. My problem with her is I don't really feel like she stands for anything, or status quo default when it comes to public safety, but she's "not Jeremy" and unfortunately in this ward, that's going to get some votes this time around... Going to be a tough race.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby mplsjaromir » June 18th, 2021, 8:28 am

U of Chicago, lets say has a certain reputation. The Chicago School, the "Chicago Boys", the university's police department, just generally seen as conservative and pro big business. To me seems to be a curious decision, not necessarily bad, and maybe it was the best for her.

Oxford has a reputation for perpetuating shadowy elites, though its not even that good of a research university. Oxford is roughly on par with a second-tier state school like Georgia Tech or UT Austin, as good as Iowa but not as good as Michigan. It is a necessary place to attend to be a journalist, politician or whatever in the UK.

Her entire climate consultancy business is sus as well. I don't begrudge innovative ways to stave off climate disaster, but a consultancy business isn't gonna cut it. Prohibiting new natural gas hookups and brow beating people to unplug their phone chargers isn't going to be effective. Again it is just the vibe I get.

alexschief
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby alexschief » June 18th, 2021, 9:58 am

I'm glad we're finally getting to the important issues in this race, like "how much responsibility does Kate Knuth bear for the crimes of the Pinochet regime?"

mplsjaromir
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby mplsjaromir » June 18th, 2021, 10:08 am

I mean if you if you think climate change is about municipal resiliency responses and promoting proper consumer preferences. While saying nothing about those who make enormous direct profits from polluting...

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby SurlyLHT » July 28th, 2021, 11:38 am

I don't know where Sheila and Frey are at. But, I've been getting emails day after day from Knuth begging for donations to hit the $15k route. From the beginning to the end they said they were close to getting $15k before the deadline. I don't know if they made it. But, I got the impression they're struggling for support with the repeated requests and little progress seemingly made.

Sheila and Frey may pull away from her more, I think this also reflects what we saw with the Delegates?

Blaisdell Greenway
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby Blaisdell Greenway » August 2nd, 2021, 9:23 am

Initial campaign finance reports are due tomorrow so we'll have an answer this week. https://www.hennepin.us/residents/elect ... gn-finance

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby SurlyLHT » August 3rd, 2021, 12:37 pm

They're very slowly being uploaded. Or maybe people are turning them in late? I don't know.

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby SurlyLHT » August 5th, 2021, 11:43 am

Axios Details some of the numbers. I think they are all in, you can read the reports here: https://www16.co.hennepin.mn.us/cfrs/search.do#

https://www.axios.com/minneapolis-mayor ... e26b1.html

Didier
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby Didier » September 9th, 2021, 1:59 pm

So what is the thinking on the charter amendment?

I haven't researched it enough yet to say for sure how I'll vote, but when the Yes camp is stuck on the "but that's not what it really means" loop, it kind of feels like they already lost.

The overall campaign has felt poorly run. Starting with the premise of "defund the police," which doesn't actually mean defund the police, but to a certain group of activists actually does mean defund the police. As a result, now we have a confusing ballot question about how the city can still have police "if necessary." So even though any rational person agrees that police in some form are necessary and the Yes campaign promises we can still have police in the new public safety department, the public is left with this ambiguous proposal that can reasonably be interpreted as step one in eliminating police. All of this, of course, taking place during a period of heightened anxiety about crime.

Maybe this was actually the only way to do it? To me, it just feels like too many cooks in the kitchen, and them trying to subtly placate the activists while muddying the waters for everyone else. And if the ultimate plan is for the city council to take on more responsibility here, I fear that same description will apply to the implementation.

With all of that said, I'm leaning toward voting yes. The system is broken and this could be our one opportunity to fundamentally reform it. I just wish I had more confidence in the people promising to fix it, and had a better idea of what their actual plan is.

amiller92
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby amiller92 » September 10th, 2021, 9:50 am

What are you really confused about on the ballot question? We've had a tremendously effect "flood the zone with lies" strategy from the anti-side that people pretend like there's something confusing about what is really quite straight-forward.

Do you honestly foresee a mayor and council majority that will find the police "unnecessary" in the short term? Do you really believe that the charter requirement is the only thing causing us to have a police department?

The actual plan is to create a department of public safety that has resources and jurisdiction beyond just policing, untie the cities hands as to how public safety money can be spent and allow the council to create policy on how policing happens.

As you note, what've been doing hasn't worked and is fundamentally unjust. Change is hard and necessarily involved so uncertainty, but we know the status quo isn't okay.

Didier
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby Didier » September 10th, 2021, 11:33 am

What's being proposed is really pretty simple: Create a larger public safety department that includes the police.

Here's what voters will be shown on the ballot:
"Shall the Minneapolis City Charter be amended to remove the Police Department and replace it with a Department of Public Safety that employs a comprehensive public health approach to the delivery of functions by the Department of Public Safety, with those specific functions to be determined by the Mayor and City Council by ordinance; which will not be subject to exclusive mayoral power over its establishment, maintenance, and command; and which could include licensed peace officers (police officers), if necessary, to fulfill its responsibilities for public safety, with the general nature of the amendments being briefly indicated in the explanatory note below, which is made a part of this ballot?"

Explanatory note: "This amendment would create a Department of Public Safety combining public safety functions through a comprehensive public health approach to be determined by the Mayor and Council. The department would be led by a Commissioner nominated by the Mayor and appointed by the Council. The Police Department, and its chief, would be removed from the City Charter. The Public Safety Department could include police officers, but the minimum funding requirement would be eliminated."
You really think that's a clear presentation of the change?

And besides this being long and technical, when the question also includes the line "which could include licensed peace officers (police officers), if necessary," I can see why people might think this amendment would either a) literally get rid of the police, or b) set in motion a plan to eventually get rid of police.

I'm not breaking any news here, but this whole thing continues to reinforce how bad the "defund the police" slogan was. Very few people actually want to get rid of the police entirely, but some people actually do, and the messaging around the amendment has done a very poor job of separating that. Can't we outline what a public safety department would actually look like, instead of just saying it can include police "if necessary"?

Maybe that's literally not possible? I'd honestly love to know. Because to me this just feels like a continued exercise in poor messaging on the part of progressives, and it's no surprise that the opposition was able to so easily muddy the waters.

So as I said yesterday, the reform seems like it should be pretty straightforward and not actually that controversial, but I can't help but feel that it's already failed.

gpete
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby gpete » September 13th, 2021, 7:17 am

From what councilmembers have said, months ago they were trying to provide an outline and process for drafting an ordinance that would implement the department of public safety and how police would fit into that, but they were told to stop by the City Attorney's office because it would be considered campaigning in favor of the amendment.

https://twitter.com/lisabendermpls/stat ... 9333848066

https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis ... 600056497/

SurlyLHT
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby SurlyLHT » September 17th, 2021, 8:39 am

Folks can view their Sample Ballots or go out and actually vote. When I looked at my ballot, I got this feeling that if there is abundant backlash against the Council Question One may likely pass piggy backing on the momentum of voting against question 2.

twinkess
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby twinkess » September 17th, 2021, 11:49 am

I'm not voting for the vague handwavy public safety amendment. Gives too much power to an already too powerful city council, and while it is abundantly clear that police reform is necessary, so is having a police department. I don't trust the council that stood on a stage with "DEFUND POLICE" with power to do anything up to and including completely eliminating it.

amiller92
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Re: Minneapolis 2021 Elections - Mayor, City Council, BET, Park Board

Postby amiller92 » September 17th, 2021, 1:17 pm

You really should not make decisions on the charter based on the current occupants of certain offices, some of whom may well be gone before any meaningful change happens.


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