Hi retiredbanker! Great post, forgive my tardiness, I am a new-comer to this site so just reading things as "brand -new thoughts"...Just wondering, without disclosing confidential information, are these "major investors" also concerned about aesthetics/iconic architecture when they keep saying "taller"? And do you have a gut feeling from your experiences as to when one of these "supertalls" or even "taller-than-what-we-haves" might come to fruition/announcement? From what I've read on several threads, you have a decent grasp on reality while at the same time you remain optimistic, I too believe that patience is warranted; yet, excitement in knowing about positive progress feels so good:)
Okay everybody, hold on to your hats......here's his response to the above post (*note: this may be one of THE most interesting and exciting insider posts I've ever read!):
-What kind of timeline can we reasonably expect to START to hear public info about these currently private projects?
I'm acquainted with about 30 downtown high-rise projects, all in different stages of development. One particular development I was hoping that could possibly be announced, yet, this year. That is difficult to say because of multiple developers wanting the same site for the same purpose, all having a 'significant' structure designed. That particular project would be the catalyst for about 10 other projects alone, which would appreciatively enhance multiple areas of weakness downtown, especially the retail component. Which is vital for the success of downtown in the years ahead.
-How much space would the average supertall in question require (1.0M SF? 2.0M SF?), and how much of it would need to be pre-leased?
Concerning the square footage of the 'significant' projects vary greatly. Keep in mind that all these new towers have incredibly beautiful and ornate crowns/spires that will make each tower a signature building. It's no secret that both Hines and Target do intend to exceed the 1000 ft. barrier on their sites. There are 3 other towers with conceptual designs exceeding 1000 ft. as well. Now, the final designs might very well be reduced, however, all the developers know the significance of having a signature building, helping it appeal and lure better tenants to their projects.
On the amount of space that needs to be pre-leased also varies, due to the fact that they'll all (the 3 other significant towers) be self-financed, which provides greater flexibility to the developer on structuring the lease and their rates, both office and retail space. Developers and financiers need to look far more ahead than just a few years, the development must be able to enhance the value to the neighboring buildings to keep the lease rates high enough to have the project cash flow and be viable for any potential buyer in the years ahead.
-What is the biggest threat these types of projects face in the current environment (micro or macro)?
I believe what is solely needed is patience and when the market conditions are such, each project will move ahead. Certainly, the city needs to be far more flexible in the building requirements (FAR rates) in some locations concerning even the mid-rises which are plenty. Perhaps, what the developers would like to see is more positive movement towards patronizing retail downtown, which has been hurt since the opening of the Mall of America. People can't simply talk about wanting a particular retail store downtown for their convenience and not shop there. Online shopping is probably the biggest obstacle hindering expansion of retail downtown (and elsewhere).
-In your personal opinion, do any of the proposals that you have seen meet or exceed the asthetic benchmark beset by any of the current buildings in the city (i.e. will they be iconic)
Every conceptual design that I've seen of the about 30 or so projects are all quite appealing, developers have been very cognizant of design and being street/pedestrian-friendly. That has definitely slowed progress on projects, since there are numerous obstacles to overcome, such as full-block parking ramps that create dead zones. However, by developers working together on projects to coordinate their developments to help each projects success, hopefully will be enough to make the final result/investment work.
Just wondering, without disclosing confidential information, are these "major investors" also concerned about aesthetics/iconic architecture when they keep saying "taller"?
I believe that I tried to answer in the previous question.
And do you have a gut feeling from your experiences as to when one of these "supertalls" or even "taller-than-what-we-haves" might come to fruition/announcement?
I believe that I tried to answer that in a previous question, as well.
Every weakness of downtown in this enormous comprehensive plan (for the entire downtown area, DE, the Core, North Loop, Loring & Elliot Park, the riverfront and what is remaining) has been acknowledged and attempted to be solved. I've never been more confident of downtown Minneapolis development success in my lifetime like the present. Many cities are dying or stagnant, some are going through and always in a transition mode, however, Minneapolis will move from transition mode to entire transformation over the next 15-20 years. Developers, financiers and the business community from throughout the world looks at Minneapolis much differently than they do other cities of comparable size and even larger. Minneapolis is unique and they all know it and will invest accordingly.
Hopefully, this response addresses your questions. Stay positive, Minneapolis has its best days ahead of it.