Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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xandrex
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby xandrex » May 21st, 2015, 2:32 pm

I think something else interesting is that if you combine Minneapolis and St. Paul (total population: 704,847), you've got a city that would rank as the 18th largest (about 25,000 ahead of Detroit, about 100,000 less than Charlotte).

Really provides some perspective on where we really are in the rankings. We'd be larger than any of our usual peer cities except Austin.

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tabl ... l?src=bkmk

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 21st, 2015, 2:36 pm

Don't worry MNdible, I got U:
Yes, because at 700,000, we're nipping at the heels of that mighty metropolis of Jacksonville, FL.

These figures are only useful for internal consumption -- did your city grow or shrink. Comparing them to anywhere else, where they happened to draw the arbitrary municipal boundaries differently, is utterly useless.


EDIT: I agree with you, xandrex, that the perception does matter. And I agree with MNdible too that the boundaries are completely arbitrary and not great for making national comparisons. If we could get more news organizations, etc. to use the combined figure, or at least throw it a bone, that would be nice. We're a pretty large metropolis - our cities should be in the conversation with other medium-large cities. 700,000 puts us in good company. 400,000 is like a large suburb in CA, TX, or AZ.

Our 700k+ over 106.88 sq mi of land has a nice density of 6595/sq mi. Obviously nowhere near East Coast dense, and not even Seattle dense (7969/sq mi), but better than most others.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby xandrex » May 21st, 2015, 2:51 pm

Obviously, you can't compare them due to these facts. But what's astounding is that Minneapolis + St. Paul is still smaller in area than pretty much anywhere else it's every compared to. It's just more fun to look at what having two cities does to your ranking.

To get to the size of a Seattle or Denver (in area), you could take Minneapolis + St. Paul + Richfield + Edina + St. Louis Park. Which comes out to about 840,000 people at a pretty decent density.

I was making, in different language, MNdible's point. The arbitrary nature of civil boundaries makes us look a lot less significant than we actually are. (Though I'd argue that this actually does affect perceptions to a certain degree...)

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby MNdible » May 21st, 2015, 3:04 pm

Hey, somebody actually reads my posts!

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Nick » May 21st, 2015, 3:16 pm

I got a little over a million separating the urbanish parts of the metro area from everything else: https://streets.mn/2015/02/19/measuring- ... h-the-map/

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 11th, 2016, 11:08 am

Preliminary 2015 estimates are out
(link fixed)

St. Paul finally cracked 300k! (300,353 - up from 299,641 in 2014)
Minneapolis is sitting at 412,517, up from 411,286 in 2014.

It could be that 2013-2014's estimates were too high and they're moderating down, or maybe that April'14 - April'15 just didn't see that much growth, but Mpls' 1,300 person increase would be the smallest in several years. Growth has been around 6,000 a few years in a row (and 30k total since the 2010 Census - an average 6k per year). The US Census Bureau will put out their own estimates later in the month, so we'll see how those numbers jive with the Met Council preliminary estimates here.

P.S. Reminder that these estimates are as of April 1, 2015, so already a year old, if you're trying to figure population as of today. Safe to say Minneapolis is probably at least 414k as of today. All indications are that Minneapolis will be at or above 420k in time for the 2020 Census - a solid 10% above 2010.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 19th, 2016, 8:01 am

US Census Bureau city-level estimates are out!
(yes, these are different & separate than Met Council's estimates released a week ago)

MN Cities over 50,000 as of July 1, 2015:
Minneapolis 410,939 (still safely #46 nationally)
St. Paul 300,851 (surpassed Cincy and Anchorage to be #64, could pass Pittsburgh & Stockton by 2020)
Rochester 112,225
Bloomington 86,435
Duluth 86,110
Brooklyn Park 79,149
Plymouth 75,907
Maple Grove 68,385
Woodbury 67,855
St. Cloud 67,109
Eagan 66,286
Eden Prairie 63,496
Coon Rapids 62,240
Blaine 62,124
Burnsville 61,481
Lakeville 60,633
Minnetonka 51,669
Apple Valley 51,221
Edina 50,138 (first time making the list!)

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/citie ... index.html

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby kiliff75 » May 19th, 2016, 6:01 pm

Wow NYC has added almost an entire Minneapolis since 2010!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby SkyScraperKid » May 19th, 2016, 6:30 pm

Woo Hoo! 710,000 for the Twin Cities! I can't wait until we have our very first "Boomburb" city of Bloomington! I hope it can reach 100,000 population soon!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby bapster2006 » May 19th, 2016, 6:51 pm

All right Minneapolis! Way to blow Tulsa and Cleveland out of the water!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Mcgizz » May 19th, 2016, 8:06 pm

What are peoples thoughts when they see a list like this? Is it really fair to simply stop the thoughts about Minneapolis as only the 46th largest city in America or is it better to think of Minneapolis and St. Paul as one entity? I almost always find myself thinking of us as one entity. The borders touch and the relationship is mutual. So I lump them together and when one does that they are 700k+ which would list us 17th. Is it better to think that way? Can someone offer some thoughts (I honestly don't know if it is right or wrong)? Or are we an Oakland or Tulsa?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby EOst » May 19th, 2016, 8:24 pm

Those lists are completely meaningless, and not just for the reasons you've mentioned. The fact that Minneapolis = pre-1940 or so and suburbs = post-1940 just isn't true in a lot of metros, either because they annexed a lot of that land when it was still rural, or because they annexed the emerging suburbs. So in order to do a fair comparison, you'd have to include places like Richfield, St. Louis Park, and Robbinsdale, a process so arbitrary that you're much better off going by MSA stats.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby grant1simons2 » May 19th, 2016, 9:52 pm

What are peoples thoughts when they see a list like this? Is it really fair to simply stop the thoughts about Minneapolis as only the 46th largest city in America or is it better to think of Minneapolis and St. Paul as one entity? I almost always find myself thinking of us as one entity. The borders touch and the relationship is mutual. So I lump them together and when one does that they are 700k+ which would list us 17th. Is it better to think that way? Can someone offer some thoughts (I honestly don't know if it is right or wrong)? Or are we an Oakland or Tulsa?
It's kind of hard because of the size of Minneapolis. 58 sq. miles makes us one of the smallest major US cities in the country (seriously, we're not even in the top 150). Oakland, who's just ahead of us, is 78 sq. miles, has a population of 419,267. If Minneapolis and Edina combined, we'd be 74 sq. miles with a population of roughly 460,000. Always makes me feel a little better.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby QuietBlue » May 20th, 2016, 7:25 am

Yeah, it would be interesting to see a map (maybe someone's already made one?) of what Minneapolis/St. Paul would look like if they had a comparable geographic footprint to other major cities, and what the population would then be.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby seamonster » May 20th, 2016, 9:34 am


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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 22nd, 2016, 10:42 pm

I don't get how Minneapolis's population only grew by just over 1k when it averaged more like 5k-7k per year for the past few years, and -- as far as I can tell without pulling out the stats -- development patterns have been somewhat similar during this time period.

Separately, if the core cities want to continue to grow they will have to try and cater to the people in the middle (specifically the lower 95%), including families with school-aged children. If there's a way to address this with finite land supply and limited opportunities to develop single-family homes, then the sky's the limit for the core cities.

It's hard to complain about core growth though.

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 23rd, 2016, 7:50 am

The drop in growth is peculiar. Both the Met Council and Census Bureau agree though, so I'm inclined to believe the estimates.

It could be that both bodies were over-estimating growth in 2011-2014 and decided to moderate down for 2015, OR that the 1-year period of Spring 2014 - Spring 2015 just didn't see as many new units opening.

But more importantly, population growth is not just new units added, but also existing units absorbed. In 2011-2014, we saw vacancy rates at existing apartments dive down to near 0%. If all the older units in the city are already near 100% occupied, there isn't any room for further absorption. That's my best guess as to why population growth has slowed a bit. If that is true, it definitely bodes well for continued construction.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Chef » May 23rd, 2016, 9:59 am

My guess is that part of our growth over the last five years was due to vacant foreclosures being occupied again. Remember that Minneapolis didn't grow much in the '00s despite all the development because foreclosures were balancing out the new development. If the reoccupation of foreclosures and abandoned buildings is now largely complete then one of the drivers of growth has shut down, and we are relying only on new development.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » July 6th, 2016, 9:42 am

This doesn't contain any data/graphs for MSP, but is otherwise a fantastic look at how cities are growing: http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2016 ... ty-growth/

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » February 14th, 2017, 12:40 pm

A bunch of links in this thread to the Met Council's 2040 estimates are broken, so here's an update from Jan. 2017. I don't think there are any major revisions, but just in case anyone was looking for it: https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2017).aspx

We're still about 3 months away from getting population estimates from last year (2016 population estimates will be released in May 2017).


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