Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 28th, 2017, 11:52 am

County level (and therefore metro) population estimates for 2016 are out:
Population estimates, July 1, 2016
MN 5,519,952 [2015: 5,489,594] - gain 30,358
7-County 3,033,634 [2015: 3,012,117] - gain 21,517
Hennepin 1,232,483 [2015: 1,223,149] - gain 9,334
Ramsey 540,649 [2015: 538,133] - gain 2,516
Anoka 345,957 [2015: 344,151] - gain 1,806
Washington 253,117 [2015: 251,597] - gain 1,520
Dakota 417,486 [2015: 414,686] - gain 2,800
Carver 100,262 [2015: 98,741] - gain 1,521
Scott 143,680 [2015: 141,660] - gain 2,020

The 7 county area now makes up 55% of MN's population and accounted for nearly 71% of MN's growth in the last year.
Hennepin county makes up 22.3% of MN's population and accounted for 30.7% of MN's growth in the last year.

Met Council forecasts that the 7-county metro population will be 3,127,660 in 2020 (see link in previous post). Growth would have to pick up slightly from the 2015-2016 level in order to reach that number. Given the possible drops in immigration levels, that seems unlikely to occur. Then again, lots of #millennials are of baby-making age, so we just might get there. Hennepin seems likely to hit its 2020 target of 1,255,220, as does Ramsey seem likely to reach 548,220. If we fall short of the metro's 2020 estimate, it will be because new homebuilding in the suburban counties was sluggish in the first half of the decade (2010-2015). For better or for worse, it sounds like the pace has picked up significantly in the last year.

City estimates will be released in May.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby MNdible » March 28th, 2017, 12:03 pm

Regardless of who's in charge of redistricting, it could be bad news for Republicans. In addition to the MSP metro, you'll also have more weight in increasingly blue Rochester. These trends could do a lot to counterbalance losses in the Iron Range (as well as more and more wasted votes in DFL super-strongholds like Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth).

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » March 28th, 2017, 4:12 pm

So Outstate MN GAINED nearly 10K residents, while the metro area barely added 20K? What an odd twist! Unless that 10K gain was all within the CSA but outside the MSA. I'm disappointed to see growth slow when it was already a bit sluggish compared to our 90's and early 00's average, which was closer to what I prefer to see out of a progressive, (healthy) growing metro. I'm hoping to see the net migration of domestics reverse to be positive, which will hopefully offset any potential losses in net immigration -- though I'm also hoping to see that maintained with countries outside of Somalia, if necessary.

I agree that recent home sales trends and similar statistics may be painting a new picture, but time will tell.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby kiliff75 » March 29th, 2017, 6:54 pm

County level (and therefore metro) population estimates for 2016 are out:
Population estimates, July 1, 2016
MN 5,519,952 [2015: 5,489,594] - gain 30,358
7-County 3,033,634 [2015: 3,012,117] - gain 21,517
Hennepin 1,232,483 [2015: 1,223,149] - gain 9,334
Looks like the numbers came from here: https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/tabl ... US27.05000

Hennepin County had a bigger increase than what was stated here, it went from 1,220,459 to 1,232,483 for a gain of 12,024. Assuming the other counties are correct, that means that the 7-county population increase was 24,207 out of the 30,358 from the state (80% of the state total). Of the 6,000 from the rest of the state, about 2000 came from Olmsted County (Rochester) and about another 2000 from Sherburne (St. Cloud).

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 29th, 2017, 7:35 pm

Meaningless minutiae: I think the Factfinder website uses the "original" 2015 estimates, while the source I posted from used "revised" 2015 estimates, which all appear slightly higher than the 2015 numbers shown in Factfinder, making the increases I posted slightly smaller than what you'd get if you take the numbers (2016 - 2015) from Factfinder.

Either way, the safest comparison to make is probably (2016 estimate - 2010 Census) and average it out over 6 years to find annual growth.

Here's a table showing all metro areas 2010-2016: https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/tabl ... CHG.US24PR

It puts the 16 county MSA at 3,551,036 (+202,177 since 2010), good for 6% growth over that period.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby kiliff75 » March 29th, 2017, 9:17 pm

Interesting info, thanks!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby kiliff75 » March 30th, 2017, 5:25 am

Also interesting to note that the population in urban statistical areas increased by 14.55 million (5.5%) from 2010-2016, greater than the change over the US as a whole (14.37 million, 4.7%), meaning that the rural population declined over that time (~-187,000,-0.4%).

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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth (500k, etc)

Postby xandrex » May 16th, 2017, 11:55 am

Minneapolis preliminary population estimate for 2016: 419,952. Over 10 percent growth since 2010.

https://metrocouncil.org/News-Events/Co ... its-a.aspx

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby JordanWasaN » May 16th, 2017, 11:02 pm

https://metrocouncil.org/News-Events/Co ... its-a.aspx

Met Council estimates are out (data from Apr 2016):

Minneapolis - 419,952 (gain of 37,374 since 2010)
Saint Paul - 304,442 (gain of 19,374)
Seven County Area - 3,041,195 (gain of 191,628)

min-chi-cbus
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth (500k, etc)

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 17th, 2017, 9:18 am

Cool. Nice to see the urban core continue to blossom. Mpls, StP, Edina, SLP, Hopkins, Bloomington and even S St. Paul all had fairly robust growth for cities with no green fields whatsoever.

I was slightly surprised to see only fairly modest growth in some of the more "popular" suburbs, like Lakeville, Maple Grove, Woodbury, Plymouth and Eagan. The only suburb that truly stood out and "met my expectation" was Blaine. I was even more surprised to see fairly modest growth for Apple Valley, considering it feels like it is very quickly developing every last inch of space left in the city, and with moderate density (relatively speaking, of course).

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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth (500k, etc)

Postby talindsay » May 17th, 2017, 12:11 pm

The final estimate for 2015 for Minneapolis was 412,517, so 419,952 represents an impressive 1.8% growth in a single year.

Each county's growth from 2010 to 2016, percentage and number:
Anoka: 5.4%, ~18k
Carver: 10.5%, ~10k
Dakota: 5.0%, ~20k
Hennepin: 7.4%, ~85k
Ramsey: 6.3%, ~32k
Scott: 9.6%, ~13k
Washington: 6.2%, ~15k

Interesting to me that Dakota saw the smallest percentage gain. Hennepin's percentage is extremely high given the large base it's built on: almost an entire Carver County's worth of people have moved into Hennepin County in just six years.

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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth (500k, etc)

Postby QuietBlue » May 17th, 2017, 1:15 pm

I was slightly surprised to see only fairly modest growth in some of the more "popular" suburbs, like Lakeville, Maple Grove, Woodbury, Plymouth and Eagan. The only suburb that truly stood out and "met my expectation" was Blaine. I was even more surprised to see fairly modest growth for Apple Valley, considering it feels like it is very quickly developing every last inch of space left in the city, and with moderate density (relatively speaking, of course).
MG, Plymouth, and Eagan are pretty much built out at this point; population growth is largely going to come from infill or redevelopment from here on out. They'll still grow, but not as fast or consistently.

Woodbury still has some open space, especially in its southern area, but it's kind of far from everything, so it might be a while before it develops.

Lakeville still has some open space left too, but my guess is that it's far enough out that it puts some people off (though 9% growth isn't all that slow, either).

AV's growth just restarted recently after having stalled out for a while, so I think this will show up more in future estimates.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby bapster2006 » May 17th, 2017, 4:19 pm

By my calculations, St. Louis Park will crack 50,000 by October.

min-chi-cbus
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 18th, 2017, 7:19 am

By my calculations, St. Louis Park will crack 50,000 by October.
I'm excited to see SLP continue to add people, especially now being a resident. Our family moved there last May/June so you can safely add 4 people to that figure! There's quite a bit in the pipeline that's approved, under construction or just about, so there's plenty of reason to believe that 50K-55K is attainable. I'd actually like to see 60K+ someday.

Regarding the prior comment about the suburbs, I thought the same thing with Apple Valley, so I expect their population to take off now that Cobblestone Lake is erupting and the rest of the quarry area is being snatched up. It's news to me though that MG is nearly built out -- I thought there was quite a bit of open space to the North/Northwest -- something like 30%-40% additional space. Agree about the others though.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby VacantLuxuries » May 18th, 2017, 8:38 am

Count two more for us as of last July! Looking forward to even more growth!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby QuietBlue » May 18th, 2017, 11:00 am

I guess there is still some open space in far northwest MG, but the Elm Creek Park Reserve takes up a large chunk of land in the north central area, so that portion will remain undeveloped.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby VacantLuxuries » May 18th, 2017, 11:14 am

Is whatever they're pulling out of those giant pits near Arbor Lakes more valuable than the land?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby MNdible » May 18th, 2017, 12:14 pm

I understand those are just gravel pits, and once they're mined out they'll be redeveloped. I believe that all of the Arbor Lakes area had previously been gravel pits.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 18th, 2017, 2:26 pm

Is whatever they're pulling out of those giant pits near Arbor Lakes more valuable than the land?
Puppies, so yes.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby John21 » May 27th, 2017, 10:51 am

US Census 2016 estimates
Minneapolis 413,651
St Paul 302,398
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... RES&src=pt


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