Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 22nd, 2019, 9:05 am

the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840)
You missed Plymouth (78,351). Woodbury has more than enough open land to eclipse Plymouth within a decade, but Plymouth also has a ton of industrial property along the MN-55 corridor in the SE quadrant of the city that could see large apartment complexes added, assuming demand and political support.
Bloomington on track to join the league of "first class cities" soon!
Also hitting an all-time population high (89,654), after having dropped since the previous recorded high of 86,355 in 1990. It dropped by a couple thousand in the next two Census counts, bottoming out at ~83k in 2010. 90k is assured for the 2020 Census.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby NickP » May 22nd, 2019, 1:47 pm

the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840)
You missed Plymouth (78,351). Woodbury has more than enough open land to eclipse Plymouth within a decade, but Plymouth also has a ton of industrial property along the MN-55 corridor in the SE quadrant of the city that could see large apartment complexes added, assuming demand and political support.
My apologies. Thank you for the correction :)

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 26th, 2020, 9:47 am

2019 estimates are out for counties & metro areas: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

https://twitter.com/yfreemark/status/12 ... 8385375236?

MN spreadsheet link: https://www2.census.gov/programs-survey ... es-27.xlsx

The state as a whole gained about 33,400 on the year; 8,000 of which was in Hennepin and 1,500 in Ramsey. The 5 suburban counties each gained between 1,500-4,000 (led by Dakota County). The reason for Ramsey County's smaller growth is pretty simple - it's small geographically and fully developed aside from the TCAAP site. There's no place for further suburban sprawl to go, unlike the 5 suburban counties which are both infilling multifamily and adding suburban subdivisions at the exurban fringe. Ramsey County's growth is almost entirely reliant on infill development in St. Paul and whichever of its suburbs have strong enough markets to drive new apartment construction (Shoreview, White Bear Lake, etc.)

City-level estimates typically come out in May. I don't know if the Census releases those during a Census year, but I'd assume the Met Council will still release their 2019 estimates in the coming months.

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Anondson
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » March 26th, 2020, 10:37 am

How are these estimates looking for keeping a congressional seat in Minnesota?

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 26th, 2020, 10:59 am

Seems it would take a big undercount in TX and/or FL to keep Minnesota's 8 seats. Luckily for us, that is on the table, with those GOP-led states not putting state funds into getting an accurate count like most blue states have. And those states have lower self-response rates than MN. Especially with coronavirus affecting the Census bureau's ability to do in-person follow-ups for folks that don't complete their forms, it does seem TX and FL (and Alabama, which is fighting to keep its 7th seat and comes in just ahead of MN on the apportionment projections) are all pretty ripe for undercounts. We might just beat the odds and keep the 8th. As of last year, MN's 8th was showing up as #437 on the apportionment projections. This report has lists of seats 431-435 (and theoretical seats 436-440) based on the 2019 estimate, and with estimated 2019-2020 growth added in: https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp ... MSF0951a18 - Both models have MN-8 coming in behind AL-7 and FL-29.

Also, if you're thinking about COVID-19 impacts, keep in mind that the pandemic itself wouldn't have much direct affect on actual population, since the census is technically counted as of April 1 (~25% and counting have already filled theirs out online). Where it will have the biggest impact is on the ability to get people counted in the field, not whether those people exist. No matter what happens, there is just a massive likelihood of undercounts happening all over the country this census, especially on the hardest-to-count populations.

The Census has a map of online self-response rates here: https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html
I think this gets updated daily. Considering it's not April 1 yet and paper forms haven't been sent out (to households that haven't responded online), I think the early numbers are fairly encouraging. Most people being home with nothing to do is hopefully boosting those online response rates. Per usual, the upper midwest is leading the country in self-response, but there's a long way to go to reach the self-response rates of 2010 (range of WV's 59% to MN's 74% in 2010).

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby alexschief » March 26th, 2020, 11:42 am

How are these estimates looking for keeping a congressional seat in Minnesota?
Just comparatively, Minnesota's most recent number is below its average in the years since 2010, and that rate was projected to make Minnesota's congressional count almost a complete toss-up. So these numbers, even low by a couple thousand, are discouraging.

As Twincitizen writes above, the state is probably going to need numbers from the faster growing sunbelt states to be under what is expected. It's anybody's guess whether the coronavirus will level the playing field or sharpen the contrast between states that have been making a full-court press to count everyone and states that have taken a more lax approach.

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 20th, 2020, 5:33 pm

Met Council's 2019 preliminary estimates of population & households have been released! Happy Holidays to my fellow population nerds who celebrate.
Story: https://metrocouncil.org/News-Events/Co ... -2019.aspx
PDF/Excel spreadsheets: https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... mates.aspx

-St. Paul and Bloomington are now at their highest-ever population totals.
-The growth of Blaine is pretty incredible...you never really hear much about Blaine. I feel like you at least hear about Woodbury or Lakeville or Maple Grove from time to time.
-Plymouth is nearly out of undeveloped land for new subdivisions (NW corner of the city), but with redevelopment interest closer in could see enough multifamily development to potentially rival Brooklyn Park (79.5k vs. 82.4k) for the title of 2nd largest suburb (after Bloomington) over the next decade.
-Bloomington has its work cut out for it, but should be able to keep its crown. There's just so much untapped opportunity in Bloomington for denser mixed-use development along its major corridors. They need to stop giving TIF to the Mall and start giving it to developers who want to build mixed use on Lyndale, Nicollet, Penn, 98th, etc. which are all full of dilapidated, under-used commercial buildings. Short of a major housing recession, Bloomington should really have a goal for more growth in 2020-30 than in 2010-2020. They should be closing in on 100k by the time 2030 rolls around.

On vacancy rates:
According to the preliminary estimates, the region added 110,551 households between 2010 and 2019, but just 90,433 housing units. The remaining 20,118 households occupied existing housing, drawing down vacancy rates.

Vacancy rates dropped as the economy improved after 2010 and reached an estimated 3.8% in 2019, down from 5.8% in the 2010 Census. According to annual data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, vacancy rates in our region are at their lowest since the early 2000s and are some of the lowest in the country.
Lastly, it's going to be very interesting comparing these projections to 2020 Census actual, especially given the complications brought on by COVID. I still haven't heard anything about how the Census Bureau is going to handle in-person counts for households that don't respond. Exceptionally bad timing by this virus...though I do wonder if it's given a slight boost to completing it online. Lotta states still have very low self-response rates. Very over-generalizing here, but if a middle-of-the-road state has a self-response rate of 60-65%, that means as much as 35-40% of the population needs to be contacted by Census enumerators, either by phone or in person, usually literal door-to-door contact. That's simply not going to happen this time around, and Congress can't just delay the deadline for getting it done. By law, statewide counts must be submitted to the President in December.

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 20th, 2020, 5:52 pm

Populations of the 5 largest cities 2019 (2018):
Minneapolis 435,885 (429,382)
St. Paul 315,925 (313,010)
Bloomington 90,271 (89,654)
Brooklyn Park 82,444 (81,679)
Plymouth 79,475 (78,351)

LakeCharles
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby LakeCharles » May 20th, 2020, 6:19 pm

Populations of the 5 largest cities 2019 (2018):
Minneapolis 435,885 (429,382)
St. Paul 315,925 (313,010)
Bloomington 90,271 (89,654)
Brooklyn Park 82,444 (81,679)
Plymouth 79,475 (78,351)
Wow. So the five largest cities combined to gain ~12k residents, and well over half of that was Minneapolis alone (~6.5k)


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