Met Council's 2019 preliminary estimates of population & households have been released! Happy Holidays to my fellow population nerds who celebrate.
Story: https://metrocouncil.org/News-Events/Co ... -2019.aspx
PDF/Excel spreadsheets: https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... mates.aspx
-St. Paul and Bloomington are now at their highest-ever population totals.
-The growth of Blaine is pretty incredible...you never really hear much about Blaine. I feel like you at least hear about Woodbury or Lakeville or Maple Grove from time to time.
-Plymouth is nearly out of undeveloped land for new subdivisions (NW corner of the city), but with redevelopment interest closer in could see enough multifamily development to potentially rival Brooklyn Park (79.5k vs. 82.4k) for the title of 2nd largest suburb (after Bloomington) over the next decade.
-Bloomington has its work cut out for it, but should be able to keep its crown. There's just so much untapped opportunity in Bloomington for denser mixed-use development along its major corridors. They need to stop giving TIF to the Mall and start giving it to developers who want to build mixed use on Lyndale, Nicollet, Penn, 98th, etc. which are all full of dilapidated, under-used commercial buildings. Short of a major housing recession, Bloomington should really have a goal for more growth in 2020-30 than in 2010-2020. They should be closing in on 100k by the time 2030 rolls around.
On vacancy rates:
According to the preliminary estimates, the region added 110,551 households between 2010 and 2019, but just 90,433 housing units. The remaining 20,118 households occupied existing housing, drawing down vacancy rates.
Vacancy rates dropped as the economy improved after 2010 and reached an estimated 3.8% in 2019, down from 5.8% in the 2010 Census. According to annual data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, vacancy rates in our region are at their lowest since the early 2000s and are some of the lowest in the country.
Lastly, it's going to be very interesting comparing these projections to 2020 Census actual, especially given the complications brought on by COVID. I still haven't heard anything about how the Census Bureau is going to handle in-person counts for households that don't respond. Exceptionally bad timing by this virus...though I do wonder if it's given a slight boost to completing it online. Lotta states still have very low self-response rates. Very over-generalizing here, but if a middle-of-the-road state has a self-response rate of 60-65%, that means as much as 35-40% of the population needs to be contacted by Census enumerators, either by phone or in person, usually literal door-to-door contact. That's simply not going to happen this time around, and Congress can't just delay the deadline for getting it done. By law, statewide counts must be submitted
to the President in December.