Presidential Election 2016

[xandrex]

A lot of people watching early voting seem to think Nevada is likely going her way too.

[twincitizen]

Many sources are attributing this tightening of the race to #neverTrump Republicans "coming home", so to speak, moreso than the FBI's October surprise. They may hate Trump, but they're still lifelong Republicans after all (which means they REALLY hate Clinton). These folks were likely recorded in previous polls as undecided or other. The result of this is Trump moving above the 42% mark for the first time ever. Clinton has steadily fluctuated between 42% and 46% throughout the campaign, though unfortunately never topping 46%...

Just as in 2012, this ultimately comes down to turnout among non-white voters. They hold the keys to Florida and North Carolina, and a victory in either one puts Clinton on top.

As an aside, losing Ohio and Iowa this year doesn't matter that much - Obama still would've won in 2012 without either. But on that note, what the hell happened in Iowa that could shift things so much? Obama won by 6(!!!) points in 2012, taking 52% of the vote. Ohio I understand. Florida I understand. Those states were very close 4 years ago...but Iowa wasn't close at all.

Which brings me to something I only began to ponder yesterday: there are clearly some number of voters who voted for Obama TWICE who plan on voting for Trump. What the actual f*** is that about? I can't even begin to comprehend that mindset...

[amiller92]

Hm. Not sure about that. Probably more likely a bunch of people who didn't vote in Iowa in 2008 and 2012 who are now motivated to go vote for Trump and some who were super motivated to vote for Obama but now are staying home.

[Sacrelicio]

Many sources are attributing this tightening of the race to #neverTrump Republicans "coming home", so to speak, moreso than the FBI's October surprise. They may hate Trump, but they're still lifelong Republicans after all (which means they REALLY hate Clinton). These folks were likely recorded in previous polls as undecided or other. The result of this is Trump moving above the 42% mark for the first time ever. Clinton has steadily fluctuated between 42% and 46% throughout the campaign, though unfortunately never topping 46%...

Just as in 2012, this ultimately comes down to turnout among non-white voters. They hold the keys to Florida and North Carolina, and a victory in either one puts Clinton on top.

As an aside, losing Ohio and Iowa this year doesn't matter that much - Obama still would've won in 2012 without either. But on that note, what the hell happened in Iowa that could shift things so much? Obama won by 6(!!!) points in 2012, taking 52% of the vote. Ohio I understand. Florida I understand. Those states were very close 4 years ago...but Iowa wasn't close at all.

Which brings me to something I only began to ponder yesterday: there are clearly some number of voters who voted for Obama TWICE who plan on voting for Trump. What the actual f*** is that about? I can't even begin to comprehend that mindset...

I hear the farmer vote is going Trump. Why I don't know.

[LakeCharles]

White voters without a college degree are strongly for Trump this year, while they were closer to even for Obama/Romney. Iowa has a lot of them.

[Tiller]

White voters without a college degree are strongly for Trump this year, while they were closer to even for Obama/Romney. Iowa has a lot of them.

This is why Ohio and Iowa are going Trump right now, and why the Upper-Midwest in general isn't as strongly democratic relative to the rest of the nation as it was in 2008/2012. The white working class is going strongly anti-establishment this year, which is why they supported Bernie and Trump.

[EOst]

"Anti-establishment" or "anti-free trade"/"anti-modern economy"?

[Tiller]

The latter are a component of the former, but not the only component by far.

[jebr]

Donald is visiting Minnesota:

http://m.startribune.com/trump-to-make- ... tion=local

[Tiller]

How delightful.
http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/edi ... USRTX2SAUX

[Tiller]

Anyone want to play an election day drinking game?

Rules:
1) Drink until you wake up tomorrow and don't remember who won


On a more serious note, what's everyone's choice of election coverage?

[bapster2006]

For election results, I like CNN because they give me a county by county run down in every state with the numbers behind it. I can watch for hours and get constant results.

[acs]

What's the best place to watch the local results roll in?

[grant1simons2]

A bunker

[Tiller]

Thanks to all who supported Hillary during the Primaries. She's a wonderful nominee, really raking in that male white working class vote in the midwest. Just like Bernie would have.

my finances can't handle a recession right now, so thanks a lot.

[seanrichardryan]

Why don't you thank the racist deplorable assholes who got out the vote?

[David Greene]

Folks, the last thing we need right now is to tear each other apart. We need to hang together and fight. We're in the fight of or lives. All three branches are going Republican.

[Tiller]

The Irony is just so thick: a Historically unpopular candidate (who is so unelectable that she's losing to the misshapen orange love child of Berlusconi and Hitler) was chosen because she was the more electable candidate.

Like, seriously, she's losing to Trump. The proof is in the pudding that she's shit. At Least Minnesota isn't turning red because then I'd be tearing my hair out.

Edit: yeah some unity will be needed but it's better to vent sooner than later. F*ck Feingold is losing too.

[acs]

I think the Democrats need to square up to the fact that the majority of the country just isn't buying what the party is selling. In 2020 they need a new, even more populist message. The good news is that the VAST majority of the things we discuss on this site aren't really impacted by national politics, it's the state legislature I'm watching.

[acs]

Folks, the last thing we need right now is to tear each other apart. We need to hang together and fight. We're in the fight of or lives. All three branches are going Republican.

Agreed. But I will say that I wouldn't worry about complete Republican control too much. The silver linings is there is a very real possibility that they might overplay their hand and push some unpopular social agenda, allowing democrats to retake at least one branch in the more crucial 2020 election. Remember how this played out in our state legislature 2012? Give them enough rope to hang themselves while bringing the party back together in a united front.