Mozaic (all phases)

[MNdible]

I'm pretty sure that I've been told on this forum that we already have too much retail space.

[Chef]

So...restaurants? What we need in this area is smaller (=less expensive) spaces for independent owners.

Minneapolis and especially Uptown are at or near the saturation point for restaurants. A lot of restauranteurs want to see how the $15 hr minimum wage fight plays out in Minneapolis before they open more restaurants in the city. Even without that the pay scale for restaurants is going up due to a shortage of back of the house workers which means that menu prices are going to be on their way up. Most restauranteurs that I know think that people are going to start eating out less as a result of the price increases that are coming.

When wholesale food prices went up sharply between 2002 and 2008 the impact on menu prices was held in check by the fact that kitchen wages were falling sharply. Adjusted for inflation, kitchen wages are still significantly lower than they were in 1999 but they won't be for much longer. The result is going to be prices that are shocking to consumers. Get ready for $15 being the price of a normal burger or sandwich.

The era of restaurant dining being an every day thing was a product of a largely illegal immigrant workforce and the low wages that came with it. Now that they have stopped coming, dining out is probably going to go back to being a bit of an indulgence. The food will probably get worse too.

[Didier]

F

[David Greene]

I know it's not a particularly popular catchphrase, but these spaces can (and more than likely will) be broken up over time.

With (presumably) two entrances? Seems difficult.

Is the Uptown area really hurting for large restaurant spaces? It seems quite saturated, with restaurants failing all the time.

EDIT: Thanks Chef for the insights.

We are already trying to eat out less because Emily is going to work fewer hours. I also believe a recession is on its way. We're due for one.

Burgers are already $15.

[grant1simons2]

And ice cream is $9

[Chef]

Yuppie burgers are $15, dive bar burgers are cheaper. Dive bar burgers are headed to $15, yuppie burgers probably to $20. It will probably happen in the next couple of years. The $10 burger of yore was built on sweatshop style exploitation, but diners never saw that part of the equation.

[David Greene]

What's an example of a Yuppie burger? Dive Bar burger? I'm talking about places like Green Mill, where a burger is $10-$13 and the meal will be well over $15.

[Chef]

Red Cow is a yuppie burger. Their top end burger is $15 or $16 not counting drinks and tip. A more regular burger would be at a place like the Malt Shop where it is probably around $11 now. Dive bar burgers would be in the same range.

[Nathan]

You can get the 13 dollar yuppie burger for 10 bucks with a hamms during happy hour at nightingale! And plenty of good burgers for around 10 if you look around. If you have fallen victim to red cow, that's on you.

Can we get back to the development at hand? Y'all can start a burger inflation convo where appropriate?

It's on the back half of a lot with only 1/4 block of street facing facade and it has 2... 2! retail bays. I think that's actually pretty awesome.

[David Greene]

But there's a fairly busy plaza on the other side.

[FISHMANPET]

The plaza will be extended, by the way. Forgot to mention that.

[Nathan]

But there's a fairly busy plaza on the other side.

So you're saying anther retail place will be great to activate this plaza created by the Girard meander and you're pretty excited about that? Take it from fairly busy to actually busy and fully realized?

[LakeCharles]

I think he's saying all of those restaurants will be shuttered in a couple months from the coming $45 burger apocalypse and we'll have a scary Girard alley.

[David Greene]

No, I'm saying there's already pretty good pedestrian traffic there (headed to businesses not on the plaza) that could support multiple small shops in this project. You can't just look at the Fremont side and conclude there's no foot traffic for retail. I think restaurants in this space will fail pretty quickly due to market saturation.

One larger-format store that might work in this space is a not-Apple-not-phone electronics outfit. But I am even skeptical of that. Small boutique clothing shops could work well, as could small specialty food like ice cream, candy, etc. I'm struggling to think of a shop like Kilwin's in MI in the metro -- I don't think it exists currently. That could do super well. I'm trying to think of unique items you can't get in the area right now.

It would be great if they could somehow integrate the transit station better. The busway is an unfortunate barrier. Better/more crosswalk markings would help, as would better lighting under phase one.

[RailBaronYarr]

You should get out of your inner city elite neighborhood and experience the Real Twin Cities http://www.abdallahcandies.com/

I think adding a few doors would be a not-difficult change in some hypothetical future where these (likely) restaurants fail. Maybe it's true the the burgerpocalypse is nigh and restaurants in general will have a much harder time with higher wages. I guess my take is this *particular* submarket does not feel oversaturated. It has one of the highest walking (or Uber/etc) distance built-in populations, with well-above average salaries (plus a long tail of medium-to-lower salaries from people living in apartments). It's got a growing daytime population, and has (to the chagrin of many longtimer neighbors) established itself as a place to go out for a Fri/Sat night on the town. It's got more than a few district parking ramps to draw people who want to drive. I know one of our favorite things to do on this forum is come up with the BEST IDEA for what should go on a particular parcel or in a new building, but I'm glad someone else gets to make that decision for us most of the time. Sometimes it fails, others it works out great. The prevailing wisdom here was that a Target was NO WAY NO HOW going to open an Uptown express-format store, and we're getting one anyway (and I'm excited about it!).

[martykoessel]

You can get the 13 dollar yuppie burger for 10 bucks with a hamms during happy hour at nightingale! And plenty of good burgers for around 10 if you look around. If you have fallen victim to red cow, that's on you.

Can we get back to the development at hand? Y'all can start a burger inflation convo where appropriate?

It's on the back half of a lot with only 1/4 block of street facing facade and it has 2... 2! retail bays. I think that's actually pretty awesome.

Yes, this should probably get it's own thread, but as a cafe owner dealing with this first hand, I'd like to throw some sample numbers out there. Let's say labor is (not unreasonably) 30% of total costs. Assume, too, that to maintain the wage hierarchy, the increase in minimum wage pushes equal dollar amount increases at higher wage levels, including those already above minimum wage.

In this case, over the time period in which the minimum wage increase is imposed, overall costs will increase around 15%, pushing the cost of the aforementioned $12 yuppie burger close to $14. The Minnesota Restaurant Industry proposes that a minimum wage increase be spread out until 2024, but if we assume a shorter span of 5 years, that allows 5 years to gradually increase the price of a $12 burger to $14 to cover the costs of a higher minimum wage. (Of course, other costs will be going up, too, so it's likely that in 5 years that $12 burger would be going for $15.)

Bringing it all together, while not painless, a $2 increase in the price of a $12 meal over the course of 5 years is unlikely, on its own, to spell the death of a huge number of restaurants in Minneapolis. Some might argue that an increase in the minimum wage will even make it possible for a big section of the workforce to dine out every now and then instead of heating up that box of macaroni and cheese.

Although it's heretical to say this among my fellow owners, while the proposed increase in the minimum wage puts pressure on me, it doesn't cause panic. There are bigger threats to my survival out there. Of course, I'd like it more if minimum wages were to increase in the whole state, not just in Minneapolis and St. Paul.

[Chef]

There is a difference between a restaurant being busy on a Friday/Saturday night and a restaurant making enough of a profit to justify the expense of opening it. If you aren't reasonably busy on a Tuesday night in February you won't have the cash flow to get through the winter the next time there is a recession. Uptown restaurants right now are getting close to that point (on average). It is an expensive sub market. There are a lot of places that look successful that don't make much money. I was a head chef in Uptown for 10 years so I would like to think that I know the dynamics of the area pretty well. At the three places I ran, most of our customers didn't come from Uptown. There aren't even remotely enough people living in greater Uptown to support all the restaurants and bars. In that sense the dining scene in Uptown is totally disconnected from the people who live in the neighborhood, it is a regional amenity, not a neighborhood one.

I think some neighborhood focused retail would be a good thing for those spaces. Uptown needs to be less focused on restaurants.

[David Greene]

You should get out of your inner city elite neighborhood and experience the Real Twin Cities http://www.abdallahcandies.com/

Ironically, that used to be in Uptown.

That's not like Kilwin's. They don't have a traditional storefront to my knowledge. And no ice cream. Probably Cosetta's dessert place is the closest but it's much more expensive. I'm thinking something family- and kid-friendly. There are *tons* of young families in the area (huge turnover) and not much to cater to them in the area in terms of retail *or* restaurants.

[grant1simons2]

Chuck-E-Cheese?

[LakeCharles]

Was curious what the hell Kilwin's was. Looked them up. They look like they'd fit in well in an antique mall.

But ultimately I'm confused. You want Ackerberg to find a kid friendly store at this stage? Or just to build a retail bay the correct size to draw a family friendly establishment?