I'll try to highlight assumptions in asterisks.
*Assume 3A is built*
*Assume a Greenway streetcar is built*
*Assume a Nicollet streetcar is built*
All fairly reasonable assumptions, I think. Probably all will be up and running within 2-3 years of each other assuming they go forward.
Given this, how could we enhance the system to provide a service approaching what people would expect a 3C Southwest LRT to provide? Here's what I came up with, in rough order of what I think would be the most bang for the buck.
- Fewer Nicollet streetcar stops north of Lake into downtown (*assume same stops as 3C on Nicollet*)
- Exclusive right-of-way for the Nicollet streetcar
- Run Midtown LRVs out to western Green Line EOL
*Assume Midtown will use Type II LRVs*
*Assume there is enoguh headway available since Blue and Green lines share trackage downtown*
*Assume same headway on Green Line and Midtown (7.5 minutes peak)*
*Assume challenges in single track sections are manageable*
Does anyone have educated guesses as to the marginal cost of these options? Here's my crack at or more questions about some of them:
- Fewer Nicollet stops - Might save $ (how much?) but decrease accessibility to the streetcar
[What is the cost of a streetcar platform? Would local bus service need to be increased to compensate?]
- Exclusive right of way on Nicollet - Little marginal cost over the existing plan, possible business mitigation for lost parking
- Extend Midtown to western EOL ~$13.2 million * N, where N is the number of Midtown LRVs needed for POR
*Assume LRV cost of $3.3 million (Type II LRV cost)*
*Assume need 4x number of vehicles (distance from West Lake to EOL is about 3x the Midtown corridor distance)*
*Assume no multi-vehicle trains on Midtown*
To me, extending the Midtown corridor southwest sounds cool in theory but isn't very cost-effective. N * $13.2 million is pretty high just to avoid a transfer. A private right-of-way for Nicollet is more plausible but will run into political opposition. Dropping Nicollet stops will also draw political opposition but is probably easier than an exclusive ROW.
So the $10,000 question is, which, if any, of these investments is worth doing to improve transit service to/from Uptown and Whittier? Note that a faster Nicollet streetcar would also benefit neighborhoods east of Nicollet, particularly those bordering the Greenway.
The next, possibly more controversial question is, what is the marginal benefit of 3C over the enhanced streetcar options proposed above? Is it worth the marginal cost? I see the marginal benefit of 3C is avoiding two transfers, one at West Lake and one at Nicollet/Greenway. I admit there may be others I'm not smart enough to think of. That's where you all come in.
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
[EDIT: Originally I assumed $150 million marginal cost for 3C (over 3A with a shallow tunnel given the Southwest AA) but that's not right since building streetcars from West Lake to Nicollet and from the Greenway into downtown costs money which wouldn't be spent in a 3C scenario.]
Finally, if we were to implement the enhanced streetcar service, would it be worth delaying improvement to Hennepin Ave. bus service? If so, by how many years? *Assuming limited pot of transit money*