urbanMSP

Walz raised 1.1 million in 2017.

Coleman - 600K
Murphy - 380K
Otto - 320K
Thissen - 300K

Jeff Johnson - 260K (lol)

Don't look now, but it's TPaw Time.

Is it just me, or would Tim Pawlenty will have a terrible time in the general election if he wins that primary? Is he even that fondly remembered among Minnesota conservatives? Reminding folks how he left the state with a budget deficit would be an easy attack.

Is it just me, or would Tim Pawlenty will have a terrible time in the general election if he wins that primary? Is he even that fondly remembered among Minnesota conservatives? Reminding folks how he left the state with a budget deficit would be an easy attack.

I agree, I also think times have changed politically since he was Governor. He'll have to bring some sort of new dynamic.

It was stated that Coleman doesn't have a statewide campaign vs Otto, but it looks like he raised a lot more money.

It sure seems like he's running: http://www.startribune.com/tim-pawlenty ... 472969163/

Is it just me, or would Tim Pawlenty will have a terrible time in the general election if he wins that primary? Is he even that fondly remembered among Minnesota conservatives? Reminding folks how he left the state with a budget deficit would be an easy attack.

I'm sure he's picked up some baggage along the way, but he remains a skilled politician who's got an appealing style and has great message discipline. In my book, he's definitely the most formidable candidate that the MN GOP has.

What will be interesting if T-Paw runs is whether he tries to place himself as a consensus candidate or moves harder to the right. He made some decisions that were relatively moderate-to-conservative at the time but are downright liberal today in light of the GOP's shift even further to the right. Things like rail transit getting built and the climate action plan were considered baggage when he tried to run for president, even though they were broadly popular when he was governor.

Honestly, how does he get out of the primary process without being harder to the right? Even then, will they believe him?

I’m curious how Tpaw runs against Jeff Johnson... to the center? to the right? “We’re basically the same guy but I have more name recognition and $, therefore I might actually win”? What is his pitch to GOP primary voters?

P.S. is anyone caucusing for a candidate other than Walz tonight? Walz has a sizeable lead in $, and will almost certainly come out on top of the straw poll tonight. I still like Erin Murphy as my #2. I could see myself answering her name in the straw poll, if only because I’m a sucker for the underdog and Walz will come out on top regardless. In recent weeks, I’ve actually cooled on Otto and warmed up to Coleman a bit. In a different year/ political context, I might back Coleman all the way. I hope he finds a place to use his talents when this doesn’t go his way. Thissen and Liebling need to drop out tomorrow

Well, despite some very close contests since then, he's still the last Republican to win a statewide race in MN. So if he wants to run as a moderate, he'll be asking people to make a compromise and vote strategically. His opponents may rep the orthodoxy better, but they're also much more obscure. The current frontrunner is the guy who lost pretty convincingly in 2014, which was a much better national environment for the GOP.

I'm not saying that will be his strategy; he may decide that the primary is too competitive to get by that way, or even that his chances in the general are better if he runs a hard-right enthusiasm campaign instead of a bridge-building campaign aimed at winning back Metro-area independents. But that's the only way I could see a moderate platform winning.

Results are still coming in, but it’s looking like Walz with >30%, Otto >20%, and Murphy at 13%, with “uncommitted” in 4th place, ahead of Coleman by a hair. https://www.dfl.org/caucusreporting/

This should all be taken with a grain of salt - remember that Rybak came in 1st in 2010, barely ahead of Kelliher (and ultimately losing the endorsement to her at the convention), while Dayton wasn’t even running yet. In 2014 for the GOP, Marty Seifert won the straw poll and eventual nominee Jeff Johnson took 3rd place.

That said, it seems pretty unlikely that anyone other than Tim Walz will be the DFL endorsee or primary winner. The GOP race, however, is wide open for Tpaw or Kurt Daudt (or really anyone with name recognition) to beat Jeff Johnson in the August primary

I found it interesting that while Walz and Otto performed relatively the same in metro districts, he performed far stronger than she did across the rest of the state. Pretty much what everyone predicted, but it's nice to have data to back it up.

It's worth pointing out that Walz's vote share wasn't that far ahead. I'm curious what the results would be if this were a ranked-choice ballot. I think Walz is in a good position but I do see an opening for someone to challenge him from the left if the field clears a bit.

In total, sure. District by district, not even close.

And one has to expect that candidates like Murphy or Otto will have their most sympathetic base at the caucuses. As the voting population expands at the primaries, and ultimately the general election, Walz should be even stronger.

Thissen has dropped out.

And one has to expect that candidates like Murphy or Otto will have their most sympathetic base at the caucuses. As the voting population expands at the primaries, and ultimately the general election, Walz should be even stronger.

This is exactly what I was thinking. But considering historical info, does the left-most candidate usually win the caucus straw poll?

Thissen has dropped out.

Coleman is out now, too.

For Democrats it is now just Walz, Otto, and Murphy.