Re: 2014 MN House Election
Posted: August 13th, 2014, 9:18 am
State House:
The house race will still be really close. It is really critical that the DFL maintain a margin of at least 2 or 4 seats, because there is no guarantee that all DFL'ers will vote for a transit funding bill. There is absolutely zero chance of any Republicans voting for a transit funding bill.
Statewide:
It was noted in many media outlets that more DFL'ers showed up to vote than Republicans. Franken got more votes than all his challengers combined, and Dayton nearly did as well (he had two frivolous challengers that stole some votes, but the DFL total was higher). While I don't think partisan primary turnout is indicative of turnout in November (and I hear it is not), it does show that the DFL base is completely united behind Dayton and the rest of the statewide officeholders. The party organization is strong and there really are no major divisions among Democrats (aside from some environmental policy issues like mining, fracking, etc). Republicans obviously have the huge tea party vs. establishment/corporate vs. young libertarian divide to deal with, and it definitely weakens them as a party. Additionally, I'm not sure any of their candidates for statewide office are going to pose a credible threat (Sec of State, Auditor, AG) outside of Jeff Johnson. I think Jeff Johnson is a very solid candidate that will ensure lively debates & campaign ads over the next 3 months, but Dayton has the advantage of incumbency, his record, and a strong economy to run on. Even though it's a midterm year in which Republicans typically fare better, I really can't see an incumbent governor losing with the current economy & budget surplus. Even the Vikings Stadium debate is far enough in the past it's unlikely to lose him many votes (and DFL'ers are pretty willing to forgive, given his other major policy victories).
Nationally:
The bad news of course is that Republicans are almost assured control of the US Senate at this point, until 2016 anyways (when 6-year terms expire from the 2010 "shellacking"). The best case is probably a 50-50 split with Democrats retaining control by way of Biden's tiebreaking vote. It's going to be an ugly 2 years at the national level (yes, even uglier than currently). How the Obama administration handles itself and controls PR messaging will definitely have an impact in 2016 - a year that Democrats (should) stand a solid chance to retain the White House and also likely retake the Senate (again, by way of "undoing 2010" in a presidential election year). I'm getting way ahead of myself, but electing a Democratic president and Senate in 2016 is going to set the tone for this country for a long time. It will have major ramifications on the Supreme Court (obviously), but also the 2020 election. Those elected to office in 2020 at the statewide level (across the country) will be responsible for redistricting. The re-election of a strong Democratic president in 2020 will influence elections nationwide, which is why it is so critical that we pick the right person in 2016. If you can't read between the lines, I'm kinda saying maybe not Hillary Clinton. I feel like it's taboo too say, but man, I really feel like she should not run for president to open up the field now.
The house race will still be really close. It is really critical that the DFL maintain a margin of at least 2 or 4 seats, because there is no guarantee that all DFL'ers will vote for a transit funding bill. There is absolutely zero chance of any Republicans voting for a transit funding bill.
Statewide:
It was noted in many media outlets that more DFL'ers showed up to vote than Republicans. Franken got more votes than all his challengers combined, and Dayton nearly did as well (he had two frivolous challengers that stole some votes, but the DFL total was higher). While I don't think partisan primary turnout is indicative of turnout in November (and I hear it is not), it does show that the DFL base is completely united behind Dayton and the rest of the statewide officeholders. The party organization is strong and there really are no major divisions among Democrats (aside from some environmental policy issues like mining, fracking, etc). Republicans obviously have the huge tea party vs. establishment/corporate vs. young libertarian divide to deal with, and it definitely weakens them as a party. Additionally, I'm not sure any of their candidates for statewide office are going to pose a credible threat (Sec of State, Auditor, AG) outside of Jeff Johnson. I think Jeff Johnson is a very solid candidate that will ensure lively debates & campaign ads over the next 3 months, but Dayton has the advantage of incumbency, his record, and a strong economy to run on. Even though it's a midterm year in which Republicans typically fare better, I really can't see an incumbent governor losing with the current economy & budget surplus. Even the Vikings Stadium debate is far enough in the past it's unlikely to lose him many votes (and DFL'ers are pretty willing to forgive, given his other major policy victories).
Nationally:
The bad news of course is that Republicans are almost assured control of the US Senate at this point, until 2016 anyways (when 6-year terms expire from the 2010 "shellacking"). The best case is probably a 50-50 split with Democrats retaining control by way of Biden's tiebreaking vote. It's going to be an ugly 2 years at the national level (yes, even uglier than currently). How the Obama administration handles itself and controls PR messaging will definitely have an impact in 2016 - a year that Democrats (should) stand a solid chance to retain the White House and also likely retake the Senate (again, by way of "undoing 2010" in a presidential election year). I'm getting way ahead of myself, but electing a Democratic president and Senate in 2016 is going to set the tone for this country for a long time. It will have major ramifications on the Supreme Court (obviously), but also the 2020 election. Those elected to office in 2020 at the statewide level (across the country) will be responsible for redistricting. The re-election of a strong Democratic president in 2020 will influence elections nationwide, which is why it is so critical that we pick the right person in 2016. If you can't read between the lines, I'm kinda saying maybe not Hillary Clinton. I feel like it's taboo too say, but man, I really feel like she should not run for president to open up the field now.