Vote NO! & NO!

[Nathan]

in the rare situation that the MN Marriage Amendment does pass

This isn't exactly a rare occasion. 31 other states have passed this amendment. It would be the rare case that it doesn't pass.

Other states have passed this narrowly, like South Dakota passed it with 51% yes.

The latest polls show Yes at 48% No at 47% and undecided at 5%... with a 4% margin of error. In MOST same sex marriage popular vote cases the people undecided at the last minute vote against same sex marriage.

It's a total toss up right now. It's scary close.

yes, but because of the way our law works if they leave it blank it = a no vote... so of the 5% undecided 2% will have to change their mind enough to check the yes box I just think alot of the undecided will just leave it black and not vote. I don't recall any recent poll being OVER the 50% support of amendment so I think it's a tell tail sigh right there I mean in such a liberal state I just can't imagine how everyone would vote yes!

Only one of the polls has included a 'not vote' option but historically about 5% of people don't vote on amendments in MN, and the 5% undecided typically go to the vote yes side. So that makes it a toss up, especially with the 4% margin of error. I'm just saying that it's probably going to come down to the skin of our teeth. Ideally I would love for MN to show up to the polls and have like 60% NO or something, but I'd be satisfied with anything under 50% yes. I do think we can do it, I just don't think it's in the bag.

[Lancestar2]

no I wasn't talking about a not voting option on a poll but the actually ballet. I don't see how the entire 5% undecided would break for the vote yes measure. Granted their may be a lot of vote yes'ers who don't wanna share their views in a random polling. Also I think Maryland was polling in the 60's for there measure so there is hope to be had. Also I think their is at least one pending gay marriage case in MN so my prediction is that Iowa court ordered tolerance will head north either way I'll be drinking that night haha Also I think the Vote No campaign has been very successful and active and being that in general the more conversations and dialog they have the more votes they can round up! Being that it's the most expensive campaign in the entire state this voting season I just don't see how it could loose. Also I think the polls are outdated a bit more each day as vote by vote it changes in resistance to the measure.

I pretty sure were gonna shock the world again haha you see the Ventura video about there views on it too? But at the end of the day 50% -1 has to check the Vote Yes option on the ballet and I don't think half the voting population will even if the support is at 48% they still are short granted the undecided may flip over another 2% but I think the measure is going to be decided based on the if you leave it blank it's a vote no feature. That alone will probably will steal a few percents from the vote yes camp by itself I just don't see how it could pass. Also your assuming that ALL 5% undecided will turn into a vote yes which I think there is to much.

[seanrichardryan]

Happy Halloween from my porch!

[John]

^^^Hey , where are your Vote No signs? !!

[Civilization]

I've noticed more vote yes signs have gone down.

I am voting no on both amendments. Pretty convinced both would pass until two weeks ago, now I have some hope.

If either amendment passes I will lower my expected amount saved for relocation, start sending out my resume to east coast offices and consider taking a couple of friends offers to rowhouse sit in DC.

Its embarrassing these amendments are even on the ballot.

[Nathan]

no I wasn't talking about a not voting option on a poll but the actually ballet. I don't see how the entire 5% undecided would break for the vote yes measure. Granted their may be a lot of vote yes'ers who don't wanna share their views in a random polling. Also I think Maryland was polling in the 60's for there measure so there is hope to be had. Also I think their is at least one pending gay marriage case in MN so my prediction is that Iowa court ordered tolerance will head north either way I'll be drinking that night haha Also I think the Vote No campaign has been very successful and active and being that in general the more conversations and dialog they have the more votes they can round up! Being that it's the most expensive campaign in the entire state this voting season I just don't see how it could loose. Also I think the polls are outdated a bit more each day as vote by vote it changes in resistance to the measure.

I pretty sure were gonna shock the world again haha you see the Ventura video about there views on it too? But at the end of the day 50% -1 has to check the Vote Yes option on the ballet and I don't think half the voting population will even if the support is at 48% they still are short granted the undecided may flip over another 2% but I think the measure is going to be decided based on the if you leave it blank it's a vote no feature. That alone will probably will steal a few percents from the vote yes camp by itself I just don't see how it could pass. Also your assuming that ALL 5% undecided will turn into a vote yes which I think there is to much.

Historically in 31 states the undecided votes turned into yes votes, it's not a matter of opinion... plus there are a lot of people who say they wouldn't vote yes because they don't want to seem discriminatory, but then do at the ballot box.

5% haven't voted on amendments on average in the history of the state of MN, the fact that this has been the most expensive campaign, and word has been widespread is probably going to shrink that number substantially.

Like I said, I think we can do it. But I've done too much research to be as flippantly optimistic.

I've watched every video from both sides, yes they are encouraging, but much of the state doesn't like Ventura. We live in the Minneapolis Bubble. In Maple Grove where my parents live Yes signs outnumber No ones 5 to 1, and out in Western Minnesota where my grandparents are there is nary a No sign to be seen.

[John]

We live in the Minneapolis Bubble. In Maple Grove where my parents live Yes signs outnumber No ones 5 to 1, and out in Western Minnesota where my grandparents are there is nary a No sign to be seen.

Yesterday, when coming back from Southdale on the 6 bus, it was striking to me how many "Vote No" signs suddenly appear on the front yards of homes when you enter the Minneapolis city limits. We really do live in a bubble as far as acceptance goes. Of course , I don't really think this is unique to Minneapolis or Minnesota. This urban versus suburban versus rural contrast in tolerance is pervasive throughout our country and beyond.

[Lancestar2]

Historically in 31 states the undecided votes turned into yes votes, it's not a matter of opinion... plus there are a lot of people who say they wouldn't vote yes because they don't want to seem discriminatory, but then do at the ballot box.

5% haven't voted on amendments on average in the history of the state of MN, the fact that this has been the most expensive campaign, and word has been widespread is probably going to shrink that number substantially.

Like I said, I think we can do it. But I've done too much research to be as flippantly optimistic.

I've watched every video from both sides, yes they are encouraging, but much of the state doesn't like Ventura. We live in the Minneapolis Bubble. In Maple Grove where my parents live Yes signs outnumber No ones 5 to 1, and out in Western Minnesota where my grandparents are there is nary a No sign to be seen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... ns_by_type

Yes, and of those 31 states you must simply admit that most of them don't relate to Minnesota. I think CA, OR, NV, MI, FL, and OH are the only states with constitutional amendments that have a similar progressiveness. I will admit the Minneapolis bubble lol but I have faith there is a Duluth bubble and a Rochester bubble and a St. cloud bubble as well. I also remember an old poll that while some people were against gay marriage they still didn't think we needed an amendment to the state constitution. Of all 50 states Minnesota technically is the most democratic if you consider our state has never voted for a republican president since 1972 granted that may mean little to my argument, but I like to think it does I like to think Minnesota is very consistently progressive. Currently our Governor (by a close election indeed) opposes the measure along with the president and 2 senators. I would personally be shocked if the voting body which voted all four of the progressives (granted the president change is position after the election) a few years later switched to vote in favor of the measure. I'm sure my logic doesn't make sense compared to you piles of polls and similar state research however I just don't see how it could pass in my opinion so I don't even think I will entertain the idea of it passing

EDIT Also note Washington currently has 55% support and Maine has 57% support for there marriage ballot measures that would legalize gay marriage much different climate than 2 years ago. But now your starting to make me worry

[Nathan]

Historically in 31 states the undecided votes turned into yes votes, it's not a matter of opinion... plus there are a lot of people who say they wouldn't vote yes because they don't want to seem discriminatory, but then do at the ballot box.

5% haven't voted on amendments on average in the history of the state of MN, the fact that this has been the most expensive campaign, and word has been widespread is probably going to shrink that number substantially.

Like I said, I think we can do it. But I've done too much research to be as flippantly optimistic.

I've watched every video from both sides, yes they are encouraging, but much of the state doesn't like Ventura. We live in the Minneapolis Bubble. In Maple Grove where my parents live Yes signs outnumber No ones 5 to 1, and out in Western Minnesota where my grandparents are there is nary a No sign to be seen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... ns_by_type

Yes, and of those 31 states you must simply admit that most of them don't relate to Minnesota. I think CA, OR, NV, MI, FL, and OH are the only states with constitutional amendments that have a similar progressiveness. I will admit the Minneapolis bubble lol but I have faith there is a Duluth bubble and a Rochester bubble and a St. cloud bubble as well. I also remember an old poll that while some people were against gay marriage they still didn't think we needed an amendment to the state constitution. Of all 50 states Minnesota technically is the most democratic if you consider our state has never voted for a republican president since 1972 granted that may mean little to my argument, but I like to think it does I like to think Minnesota is very consistently progressive. Currently our Governor (by a close election indeed) opposes the measure along with the president and 2 senators. I would personally be shocked if the voting body which voted all four of the progressives (granted the president change is position after the election) a few years later switched to vote in favor of the measure. I'm sure my logic doesn't make sense compared to you piles of polls and similar state research however I just don't see how it could pass in my opinion so I don't even think I will entertain the idea of it passing

EDIT Also note Washington currently has 55% support and Maine has 57% support for there marriage ballot measures that would legalize gay marriage much different climate than 2 years ago. But now your starting to make me worry

We can agree on one thing. We refuse to admit (to ourselves/anyone) that our state will pass such an amendment. I never for a second allow myself to imagine it passing, because I believe heavily in the law of attraction, but I think overconfidence leads to underestimation of the other side, and lowers my drive to get out there and help people change their minds. I just think it could be a 1% - 2% race. I'm going to my grandparents farm this weekend and am going to talk with them about this... wish me luck...

[Minneapolisite]

What? Not a peep about the results? All I have to say is: YES! & YES!

[Lancestar2]

What? Not a peep about the results? All I have to say is: YES! & YES!

lol I agree

I was shocked about the ID one given the polls showed it going the other way. Also I think it's important to note BOTH Minnesota's State Senate and State House flipped from Republican to DFL! ...Which Gov. Dayton I think will very likely use this change to push through a Gay Marriage bill sometime in the next few years! I knew MN was NICE ...still shocked Bachmann held onto her seat lol

[Nathan]

Unfortunately gay marriage via legislature in MN is unlikely unless the DFL holds seats for another 4-6 years... A lot of moderate Democrats were elected into moderately conservative districts, and they aren't going to necessarily be in support of gay marriage (as freshman), especially if they hope to get re-elected. If the new DFL run house and senate don't play it fairly cool there will be another wave election 2/4 years from now. And, if the legislature did do something it's likely that there would be enough nay votes to put it up for referendum, and though 52% of people didn't want to discriminate in the constitution that doesn't mean 52% of MN is for gay marriage. We have A LOT of civil union supporters in our state.

It would have a better chance in the courts, there is a lawsuit already, but I don't know what it's chances are...

[John]

...still shocked Bachmann held onto her seat lol

I was so hoping to joyfully sing out: "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" after the 6th District election results, but I guess I have to wait a few more years!

[nasa35]

...still shocked Bachmann held onto her seat lol

I was so hoping to joyfully sing out: "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" after the 6th District election results, but I guess I have to wait a few more years!

Never gonna happen.

[mplsjaromir]

...still shocked Bachmann held onto her seat lol

I was so hoping to joyfully sing out: "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" after the 6th District election results, but I guess I have to wait a few more years!

Never gonna happen.

This is true.

[mulad]

Bachmann's district was believed to be even more conservative after this year's redistricting, so in theory she only hung on by the skin of her teeth. If I had any say in that region, I'd push for some more moderate Republicans to challenge her in the 2014 primaries.

Anyway, back to the amendments: A couple of places have put up maps of how the vote broke down by region, and it's pretty remarkable how different the amendments are from each other. Defeat of the marriage amendment depended heavily on urban areas -- including many Twin Cities suburbs. It was much more polarized, with many rural counties going almost 100% in favor of it while Hennepin County went almost 100% against. This page has some graphs, and links to some interactive maps. In contrast, the voter ID amendment was much more evenly split across the state -- "a textbook example of a normal distribution".

The Star Tribune also posted some maps today.

[John]

Bachmann's district was believed to be even more conservative after this year's redistricting, so in theory she only hung on by the skin of her teeth. If I had any say in that region, I'd push for some more moderate Republicans to challenge her in the 2014 primaries.

I agree. And I think Bachman's ambiguous mental health stability will ultimately be her downfall. It's already happening. And she appears to be following in the footsteps of Sarah Palin. She will be very marginalized in her next term in Congress.

[Didier]

Bachmann is going to be hard to beat. It's hard to imagine a candidate much stronger than Jim Graves, and she has now won elections in three strong Democratic years (2006, 2008, 2012).

Part of the problem is that many of the attacks against her fall on deaf ears. Telling Bachmann supporters in the sixth district that she is crazy doesn't really have much effect.

[John]

Oh , no doubt she is hard to beat. But I think her own personal "issues" will ultimately cause her demise. Someone who makes so many paranoid and delusional statements like her does not have stable mental health. Her true self has hidden behind her very contrived ego facade for a long time, but that facade will surely crack. Always does. Kind of sad actually.

[Nick]

http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/8 ... online.png

Anyone have any idea what's up with the patch of dark red in the middle of Minneapolis that voted +60% in favor of the marriage amendment? Looks like it's where the U is...? Maybe Cedar-Riverside?