Green Line Extension - Southwest LRT

[ECtransplant]

Who would use a 3C alignment? [ . . .] Certainly not people from the SW suburbs – they’ll already just get off at West Lake and take a bus into Uptown. They don’t have any other option. Certainly not people from Uptown heading to Eden Prairie. Same West Lake argument.

Um their other options are not go in the first place or drive. Both more likely than asking someone who lives in the SW burbs to transfer -- to a bus no less.

The *only* people who would use a 3C line are _maybe_ people living in Uptown who want to get downtown and choose rail over the coming enhanced bus service on Lyndale and Hennepin.

You're assuming there will be enhanced bus on Lyndale and Hennepin. It took a decade to get the obviously needed central corridor going after Hiawatha was a great success. If that's the area's best case scenarios, I wouldn't just assume any sorts of future improvements. And unless those enhanced buses expand capacity during rush hours and drastically cut down on travel times, that's nowhere near good enough for one the most transit friendly stretches in the state. And don't forget people who live or work downtown and want to go to uptown too.

That seems like a very small slice of people, those living within perhaps 1/4 mile of a station who want to go somewhere on Nicollet Mall or points east of there.

Or Target Field. Or Target Center. Or any of the venues on Hennepin. Or any of the other millions of things to do downtown -- which is not just points east of Nicollet Mall. And this is a lot of people -- we're talking about the most urban areas with the highest residential density in the state.

The studies show definitively that the marginal ridership increase for 3C does not justify the cost

So the cost of a tunnel where there are people to ride transit isn't justified by the cost. But a tunnel in the middle of lakes and parkland is?

[David Greene]

Um their other options are not go in the first place or drive. Both more likely than asking someone who lives in the SW burbs to transfer -- to a bus no less.

How many people would additionally take the train if it want to Uptown? The studies show not many. Where's your study?

You're assuming there will be enhanced bus on Lyndale and Hennepin.

It's a good assumption given that it's in the official plans.

It took a decade to get the obviously needed central corridor going after Hiawatha was a great success. If that's the area's best case scenarios, I wouldn't just assume any sorts of future improvements. And unless those enhanced buses expand capacity during rush hours and drastically cut down on travel times, that's nowhere near good enough for one the most transit friendly stretches in the state. And don't forget people who live or work downtown and want to go to uptown too.

aBRT is a *far* different funding beast than LRT. It's Small Starts which is a much simpler process. We may not even have to get federal funds. I don't know whether we're using federal money for Snelling or not. I believe aBRT will significantly improve the transit experience. Now that's just a belief but we'll know more once Snelling has been running for a bit.

That seems like a very small slice of people, those living within perhaps 1/4 mile of a station who want to go somewhere on Nicollet Mall or points east of there.

Or Target Field. Or Target Center. Or any of the venues on Hennepin. Or any of the other millions of things to do downtown -- which is not just points east of Nicollet Mall.

If I'm going to Hennepin or west, I'm taking the bus. I don't think I'm an outlier in that respect.

The studies show definitively that the marginal ridership increase for 3C does not justify the cost

So the cost of a tunnel where there are people to ride transit isn't justified by the cost. But a tunnel in the middle of lakes and parkland is?

That's what the studies show, yes. The Kenilworth route is still significantly cheaper than 3C even with the additional cost. Remember that the marginal cost of a Kenilworth tunnel is *not* $120 million. It's about $70 million as $50-$55 million is baseline for dealing with freight in any scenario. We need $50 million more at least just to put everything at grade and that doesn't count the resulting property takings. If a tunnel avoids takings and lawsuits by SLP, homeowners, townhome owners, parks people and bicyclists, it's totally worth $70 million.

[ECtransplant]

I have to agree with mplsjaromir, and he's done a much better job of making an anti-3C argument than I ever could. The basic thing is that 3C doesn't really do a very good job of connecting Uptown and Downtown.

I'm assuming this statement is about the clumsy way 3C would hook up to the interchange. If that's not what you mean, please correct me. I don't think that should matter as I'd expect the vast majority of riders to get off at Nicollet or Hennepin before the interchange, assuming they're not transferring or travelling further east at the interchange. As an uptown resident that takes the 6 downtown everyday, I'd consider a train on this route a huge improvement, but take my bias with however much salt you wish.

[ECtransplant]

How many people would additionally take the train if it want to Uptown? The studies show not many. Where's your study?

I take issue with the assumption it's additional people that matter in the first place. I'm not disputing many of the 3C riders are already taking transit. But improving the quality of current transit users is an important goal too, on top of attracting new transit users.

You're assuming there will be enhanced bus on Lyndale and Hennepin.

It's a good assumption given that it's in the official plans.

Northstar going to St. Cloud was also in the official plans.

If I'm going to Hennepin or west, I'm taking the bus. I don't think I'm an outlier in that respect

And I'm taking the train if I'm anywhere around uptown headed anywhere downtown or vice versa. I don't think I'm an outlier.

[mplsjaromir]

I have to agree with mplsjaromir, and he's done a much better job of making an anti-3C argument than I ever could. The basic thing is that 3C doesn't really do a very good job of connecting Uptown and Downtown.

I'm assuming this statement is about the clumsy way 3C would hook up to the interchange. If that's not what you mean, please correct me. I don't think that should matter as I'd expect the vast majority of riders to get off at Nicollet or Hennepin before the interchange, assuming they're not transferring or travelling further east at the interchange. As an uptown resident that takes the 6 downtown everyday, I'd consider a train on this route a huge improvement, but take my bias with however much salt you wish.

You really think most people's destinations are near 12th street?

Not only is 3C-2 circuitous, but it also calls for split one way pairs. This effectively lengthens are rounds trips an extra block by default. The 3C alternatives are not very good, longing for them is not constructive.

[ECtransplant]

I'd put Nicollet and 7th at the center of where most people are going.

[FISHMANPET]

If I recall correctly (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong), the 3C has a stop at Nicollet & Franklin, NIcollet & Lake, Lyndale & Lake, and Lake & Hennepin. Nicollet Ave is certainly not Uptown, but I'd consider Hennpein and Lyndale to be in Uptown in some shape or form. And I also don't think those stops do a very good job of grabbing residents from Uptown and taking them anywhere.

As a resident of Minneapolis that likes to sometimes go to Uptown, I'd consider most of Hennepin and Lyndale between Franklin and Lake to be Uptown (and maybe I'm alone in that?). 3C would certainly serve the nodes at Lyndale and Hennepin, but it wouldn't do much to provide service to people leaving on the rest of those avenues. I would love an easy way to travese Hennepin and Lyndale via transit, preferably in a dedicated lane. I would love if communities in the Southwest could better shape themselves into an urban form, even if they continue to be communities of single family homes. I would also like a streetcar in the Greenway that connects with the LRT at West Lake to bring suburbanites who want to have a night out in Uptown into our fair city.

[David Greene]

I take issue with the assumption it's additional people that matter in the first place. I'm not disputing many of the 3C riders are already taking transit. But improving the quality of current transit users is an important goal too, on top of attracting new transit users.

I am considering current transit users, as did the official studies. The studies show they won't migrate to the train en masse.

You're assuming there will be enhanced bus on Lyndale and Hennepin.

It's a good assumption given that it's in the official plans.

Northstar going to St. Cloud was also in the official plans.

Northstar has proven to be a questionable investment and was seen as a questionable investment from the get-go. Everyone agrees that Hennepin/Lyndale is a slam-dunk investment.

If I'm going to Hennepin or west, I'm taking the bus. I don't think I'm an outlier in that respect

And I'm taking the train if I'm anywhere around uptown headed anywhere downtown or vice versa. I don't think I'm an outlier.

And that's fine too. Even if half the current bus riders take the train (far higher than the studies show, BTW), is it worth the additional cost? I don't think so. I think that money could be used to improve transit elsewhere.

[Chef]

One advantage of the 3C alignment is that it would really improve transit access from St Paul to Uptown. When I lived in St Paul without a car I would often avoid going to Uptown even though I wanted to because it would take forever to get there via the 21 or the 16 and a transfer. When I got a job in Uptown I had to make sure I had a car because I work odd hours and sometimes a nighttime commute home via bus would take an hour and a half because of a long transfer downtown and a slow 16.

The current alignment doesn't go anywhere that people want to go or do anything other than get suburban office workers downtown. It won't be used for non work trips and it won't get much usage outside of 9 to 5. It is going to be a boondoggle. If we build transit lines that don't work, public support for LRT will evaporate. It is more important to do this right than to get a flawed line built.

[David Greene]

I would also like a streetcar in the Greenway that connects with the LRT at West Lake to bring suburbanites who want to have a night out in Uptown into our fair city.

We should have a separate thread for this as there are a lot of interesting questions about this corridor. But in summary a streetcar may not be the best option. The discussions have been interesting. I don't think anyone should assume a streetcar in the Greenway is a done deal.

[mattaudio]

Seems to me like 3C, along with aBRT from West Lake to Snelling, would kill three birds with one stone. Rail transit in the trench, rail transit on/under Nicollet from White Castle to White Castle, and no Tunnel to Nowhere.

[David Greene]

One advantage of the 3C alignment is that it would really improve transit access from St Paul to Uptown. When I lived in St Paul without a car I would often avoid going to Uptown even though I wanted to because it would take forever to get there via the 21 or the 16 and a transfer. When I got a job in Uptown I had to make sure I had a car because I work odd hours and sometimes a nighttime commute home via bus would take an hour and a half because of a long transfer downtown and a slow 16.

The Green Line + aBRT is going to be a *lot* faster than the 21 and especially the 16, whether you transfer downtown or at West Lake. Would 3C provide a more convenient option for those traveling from St. Paul to Uptown? Maybe. You'd have to transfer downtown. That's not horrible, but it is a transfer, just like a transfer at West Lake would be. If there's a Greenway streetcar, it'd even be a rail-to-rail transfer.

The current alignment doesn't go anywhere that people want to go or do anything other than get suburban office workers downtown.

That's simply not true. There's a significant reverse commuting population served by the line. That doesn't even count entertainment users. Your statement is hyperbole.

It won't be used for non work trips and it won't get much usage outside of 9 to 5.

I have a hard time believing that but we will see. There may be a lot of 2nd/3rd shift reverse commutes. There are also lots of people coming from the western suburbs to the bars in Uptown. I don't know whether the ridership projections break up trips by time slot or not. But even if all trips are restricted to 9-5, if the ridership is high enough, does it really matter from a transit effectiveness viewpoint?

[ECtransplant]

I am considering current transit users, as did the official studies. The studies show they won't migrate to the train en masse.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those studies didn't factor in the changes in bus routings that would result from this line. And also assumed the people living in these urban walkable areas are willing to walk just as little to a station as people living in Eden Prairie. After the experience with Hiawatha, you'd think they'd have learned about these flaws in their assumptions.

Everyone agrees that Hennepin/Lyndale is a slam-dunk investment.

Even those Republican legislators who don't want to spend money on anything, especially transit?

is it worth the additional cost? I don't think so. I think that money could be used to improve transit elsewhere.

1) That's a false choice -- we can improve transit here and elsewhere. 2) If transit funding is so precarious or limited, what makes you think the monetary saving will get invested in transit elsewhere instead of simply not spent at all?

[ECtransplant]

The Green Line + aBRT is going to be a *lot* faster than the 21 and especially the 16, whether you transfer downtown or at West Lake. Would 3C provide a more convenient option for those traveling from St. Paul to Uptown? Maybe. You'd have to transfer downtown. That's not horrible, but it is a transfer, just like a transfer at West Lake would be. If there's a Greenway streetcar, it'd even be a rail-to-rail transfer.

What transfer? You could take the Green line from a St. Paul station to the Hennepin and Lake or Lyndale and Lake station without a transfer.

There are also lots of people coming from the western suburbs to the bars in Uptown

I have a really hard time believing people who chose to live in the SW burbs will take transit to uptown unless it drops them off right in uptown without a transfer.

[David Greene]

I am considering current transit users, as did the official studies. The studies show they won't migrate to the train en masse.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but those studies didn't factor in the changes in bus routings that would result from this line. And also assumed the people living in these urban walkable areas are willing to walk just as little to a station as people living in Eden Prairie. After the experience with Hiawatha, you'd think they'd have learned about these flaws in their assumptions.

Actually, they did account for rail bias. The FTA rules state that you can account for such bias if you have a demonstrated example in your area. Hiawatha provided that. The model was extensively revised and approved by FTA after it matched current Hiawatha ridership.

I don't recall whether bus realignment was considered. Perhaps rudimentarily but certainly not in any detail as the bus design is a long way off yet. But remember that that hurts ridership on all options, not just 3C. The connection to West Lake will be much improved, for example.

Everyone agrees that Hennepin/Lyndale is a slam-dunk investment.

Even those Republican legislators who don't want to spend money on anything, especially transit?

Yes, actually. Republicans constantly state their love for buses. Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that they'll fund buses. They're not going to fund anything related to transit, certainly not 3C. Heck, they won't even fund roads.

Even transit advocates weren't excited about Northstar. They rightly saw the danger of it becoming a precedent not to invest in commuter rail. Which it has. Which is not necessarily a bad thing.

is it worth the additional cost? I don't think so. I think that money could be used to improve transit elsewhere.

1) That's a false choice -- we can improve transit here and elsewhere. 2) If transit funding is so precarious or limited, what makes you think the monetary saving will get invested in transit elsewhere instead of simply not spent at all?

It's not a false choice, there really is a scarcity of transit dollars. It will be invested elsewhere because it's a dedicated source.

[David Greene]

The Green Line + aBRT is going to be a *lot* faster than the 21 and especially the 16, whether you transfer downtown or at West Lake. Would 3C provide a more convenient option for those traveling from St. Paul to Uptown? Maybe. You'd have to transfer downtown. That's not horrible, but it is a transfer, just like a transfer at West Lake would be. If there's a Greenway streetcar, it'd even be a rail-to-rail transfer.

What transfer? You could take the Green line from a St. Paul station to the Hennepin and Lake or Lyndale and Lake station without a transfer.

Oh, 3C-2? That option was never considered realistic. Lots of redundant infrastructure to circumvent downtown rather than directly serving it. 3C isn't going to happen. 3C-2 is so far beyond the realm of possibility that it's in a parallel universe.

There are also lots of people coming from the western suburbs to the bars in Uptown

I have a really hard time believing people who chose to live in the SW burbs will take transit to uptown unless it drops them off right in uptown without a transfer.

I don't have a hard time believing it but I acknowledge that I really don't know. It will be interesting to see. If people already going to Uptown aren't going to take the train to West Lake then I really wonder if they would take it to Hennepin. Or would they just drive? I really don't know. I have to believe some of them would take the train and transfer if the bus were convenient enough. With a streetcar we might even get more, though I question that too.

[RailBaronYarr]

There are also lots of people coming from the western suburbs to the bars in Uptown

I have a really hard time believing people who chose to live in the SW burbs will take transit to uptown unless it drops them off right in uptown without a transfer.

I don't have a hard time believing it but I acknowledge that I really don't know. It will be interesting to see. If people already going to Uptown aren't going to take the train to West Lake then I really wonder if they would take it to Hennepin. Or would they just drive? I really don't know. I have to believe some of them would take the train and transfer if the bus were convenient enough. With a streetcar we might even get more, though I question that too.

Bar/entertainment-going suburbanites will be hard-pressed to use LRT at all, and if they have to make a transfer at West Lake to a bus (or walk nearly a mile along the worst section of Lake to get to the heart of Uptown, they will choose to drive. The driving bias is pretty strong, they'd already be driving to the LRT station and making their first "transfer" so why not just stay in the car. Without land-use patterns (or heck, de-regulation to allow it more than a couple apartments at each stop) this is the folly of the suburban-serving LRT lines.

I think mattaudio's proposal for what the Green Line and (Red/Purple/whatever) Line of the future makes a lot of sense. My question.. I'm not exactly sure where the proposed tunnel is... none of the docs posted recently say exactly where the stretch is. (I ask because I'm curious if building a tunnel or other infrastructure would lock in that corridor for trains leaving downtown instead of allowing them to head towards West End)

[mattaudio]

That's why the tunnel is especially bad... it would waste infrastructure and lock us into using that corridor for revenue service even when we develop more lines in the future. Before this discussion, the best bet was to scrap the 21st St station. Then down the road, Green could extend west to West End and a new line could turn east at West Lake and interline with other future lines under Nicollet/Central. the Kenilworth stretch would become a non-revenue connector for two future operating districts... the four lines/two services on 5th St downtown, and the future four lines/two services on/under Nicollet Mall downtown.

[RailBaronYarr]

Welp, in the interest of a long-term vision for a better connected MSP area, then I'm in favor of no tunnel and buying 26 homes or relocating the trail to continue serving bicycle commuters and recreation. As long as Met Council can articulate what the long-term vision of the network is and not make decisions in a vacuum on cost, I'm fine with it.

[MNdible]

Before this discussion, the best bet was to scrap the 21st St station.

If by best bet, you mean the bet that most closely aligns with the particular alternate future that you've fallen in love with, then yes, that's true.