Presidential Election 2016

[David Greene]

SO many people!!! Ward 10 Precinct 1 had about 610 people show up, and #2 looked just as busy or more.

It was a complete cluster. An utter failure of party leadership.

The caucus system must be reformed. Most people who voted and left had no idea that their vote doesn't mean anything and had no idea there was anything else to be done.

Lines out the door, NO signs telling people where to go, confused volunteers sometimes sending people to the wrong place. This was a complete mockery of the democratic process. I literally went around telling people which line they were in and trying to help them find the right place if they realized they were in the wrong line. And I wasn't a volunteer, just a dumb bloke who thinks people should actually be able to participate meaningfully in their government.

[grant1simons2]

48-5 had 44! That's a good amount for Eden Prairie. I'm not sure how we voted, but it seemed split between Hillary and Sanders.

More people showed up for the caucus' than for high school football games! Nearly double that. I'd predict 3,000-5,000? That's my low estimate at least.

[seanrichardryan]

Much more organized at Saint Paul Central HS. Busy, but plenty of maps and signage. I do not miss the Jefferson School clusterf*ck.

(vote doesn't mean anything?)

[Silophant]

Pretty sure the Minnesota caucus polls are binding as of this year. Or is that just on the Republican side?

[David Greene]

Pretty sure the Minnesota caucus polls are binding as of this year. Or is that just on the Republican side?

I have a question out on this to a DFL insider-ish person.

What I'm wondering about is the following situation, which apparently happened at at least one precinct:

1. Sanders wins preference ballot.
2. All the delegates selected are Clinton supporters because the Sanders people left, not understanding how the caucus works.

What happens?

[Silophant]

When you get an answer, you should post it. My precinct may have very well had a similar situation, as we had exactly as many volunteers to be delegates as we had slots. It doesn't seem likely that the volunteers happened to be the exact proportion of the vote.

[David Greene]

Haven't heard anything official but Thatcher found a good bit at MPR:

The Minnesota DFL's process for choosing presidential nominees is driven by the straw ballot of the caucuses, but not entirely determined by it. It's still considered a binding vote, but works less directly than its GOP counterpart.

The state's Democrats will send 93 delegates to its national convention in Philadelphia this summer. Fifty of those delegates will be allocated in proportion to Tuesday's caucus results. They are required to fairly reflect the presidential preference of voters at the caucuses.

An additional 27 delegates — 10 party leaders and elected officials, such as big-city mayors or state legislators, and 17 at-large delegates, who are appointed during the state convention — will be declared at the state convention this spring, where they'll also declare their presidential candidate preference.

But the Democrats also have 16 superdelegates — party elders (like former Vice President Walter Mondale) and statewide officeholders (like Gov. Mark Dayton and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar) — who are unpledged, or free to support whomever they would like at the national convention. These delegates are not bound by the results of Tuesday's caucus, and are free to vote their preference.

So at the very least it's misleading for DFL officials to say that the delegates are apportioned according to the preference ballot. 50 of them are, but at least 17 additional delegates are influenced by precinct delegate elections.

I still don't have an answer to how those 50 are chosen or what happens if a candidate doesn't have enough delegates to cover his/her portion of the 50.

[Didier]

It's a good thing we have a modern system that people understand for picking presidential candidates.

[Mcgizz]

It's a good thing we have a modern system that people understand for picking presidential candidates.

It's a complete disgrace. Just scrap this archaic system and have a primary.

[LakeCharles]

Haven't heard anything official but Thatcher found a good bit at MPR:

The Minnesota DFL's process for choosing presidential nominees is driven by the straw ballot of the caucuses, but not entirely determined by it. It's still considered a binding vote, but works less directly than its GOP counterpart.

The state's Democrats will send 93 delegates to its national convention in Philadelphia this summer. Fifty of those delegates will be allocated in proportion to Tuesday's caucus results. They are required to fairly reflect the presidential preference of voters at the caucuses.

An additional 27 delegates — 10 party leaders and elected officials, such as big-city mayors or state legislators, and 17 at-large delegates, who are appointed during the state convention — will be declared at the state convention this spring, where they'll also declare their presidential candidate preference.

But the Democrats also have 16 superdelegates — party elders (like former Vice President Walter Mondale) and statewide officeholders (like Gov. Mark Dayton and U.S. Sen. Amy g) — who are unpledged, or free to support whomever they would like at the national convention. These delegates are not bound by the results of Tuesday's caucus, and are free to vote their preference.

So at the very least it's misleading for DFL officials to say that the delegates are apportioned according to the preference ballot. 50 of them are, but at least 17 additional delegates are influenced by precinct delegate elections.

I still don't have an answer to how those 50 are chosen or what happens if a candidate doesn't have enough delegates to cover his/her portion of the 50.

The 50 are bound to a candidate, doesn't matter their preference. Every single one of the 50 could be Hillary supporters, and 30 of them would have to vote Bernie on the first ballot.

[FISHMANPET]

Raise your hand if you put forward a resolution in your precinct to have a presidential primary, and raise your other hand if it passed in your precinct.

*raises both hands*

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

[mattaudio]

Every resolution passed in my precinct. No discussion, generally no concerns. Some with more enthusiasm with others.

[Chef]

Since I work nights, it was a challenge to vote but I made it. We actually got everyone who was at work last night and wanted to vote to the caucuses by having people leave and then come back, and free up the next person to go, but it was a colossal pain. Having two hours in the evening to vote probably disenfranchises a lot of people who work nights. A primary is definitely the way to go.

[amiller92]

Most people who voted and left had no idea that their vote doesn't mean anything

Okay, I'm going to have to look into this question, because that's not my understanding and not what our precinct captain said.

We had a ton of people at Hale elementary, so things took a long time, but the volunteers seemed pretty organized and on top of where to send people, at least when we arrived about 20 minutes early.

[amiller92]

A quick bit of motivated reasoning:

I'm seeing some Bernie supporters lamenting that Hillary wins big in states that will not go for the Dems in November, presumably implying that there's some unfairness there somewhere.

Perhaps, but historically winning at least some of the south has been essential to electing a Dem (Obama reelection, VA & FL; Obama election; VA, NC, & FL; Clinton reelection, AR, LA, FL, TN & KY; Clinton election: AR, LA, TN, KY & GA; Carter swept the south in arguably a different era). Today, Dem success in the south depends on black voter turnout and for whatever reason, Bernie doesn't seem to be inspiring black voters. If he was the nominee and unable to keep, for example, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in play, that would be a big disadvantage.

Maybe that's unfair and black voters in the south would be excited to turn out for Bernie as the nominee. I'll be the first to admit that I'm not sure I understand exactly why they are breaking so strongly for Hillary.

[FISHMANPET]

Part of me wonders if Bernie would have won by as much of a landslide if we had a regular primary rather than the caucuses.

[nBode]

Went to Ward 3 1st Precinct (Dinkytown) caucus. There were 1200+ votes. Line was over 4 blocks long, took about an hour and a half. They ran out of ballots like 30 minutes in.

(Bernie took about 1100, Clinton 100)

[grant1simons2]

And that's why I went to Eden Prairie to caucus.

[amiller92]

Part of me wonders if Bernie would have won by as much of a landslide if we had a regular primary rather than the caucuses.

Small sample size, but he does seem to do better where there are caucuses - IA, MN, CO.

ETA: I'm surprised by the final numbers. Given the relatively small Bernie margin in our South Minneapolis precinct, I thought it would be closer, assuming that we would be among the more fertile areas for him.

[Anondson]

Not only caucuses to compare. Open vs. closed matters too.