Blue Line Extension - Bottineau LRT

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RailBaronYarr
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby RailBaronYarr » October 29th, 2015, 12:24 pm

What I don't understand is that so many of you seem to want to change things so things can be 'figured out later'. Except, you know, in order for us to receive Federal Funding, we have to follow the rules established. That means doing this exactly as Met Council is doing.

This is how rail projects all over the country are done. If not, we wouldn't receive matching Federal Funds.
I can understand price increases - more bridges were added, more rail cars, another station. As long as we stay competitive for Federal funds, I have no problem investing in a long-term transit plan.
I think you're maybe missing the point. I'm saying that 1) the process, dictated by federal rules to receive money (which we sent to them via the federal gas tax in the first place) is overly long and burdensome with criteria that don't always make sense, and 2) gets us in these tricky situations where we're forced to make a decision on a preferred alternative route based on not nearly enough (or accurate enough) information, and then we're kinda stuck with it even when things don't look nearly as good because re-opening the LPA process would be a nightmare and jeopardize said funding. If we had known this LPA would cost $1.5bn (much of which stems from costs dealing with the marshy land along Theo Wirth that could have been avoided by running up Penn) would it have changed the choice? Do we know what other cost adders would have come about in an alternate universe where we listened to the other 50% of the locals who wanted LRT on Penn? Were there other options that could have been on the table if not for the federal rules and criteria that apparently say a shorter line with tunneling wouldn't generate enough riders to make the cut but a $500m price increase on a line still has more than enough wiggle room on the federal pecking order?

I'm not saying I'm 100% in the camp of devolving everything to state and local control - we may just as well end up with the same decisions and problems (and there *are* many examples of federal rules and oversight that many states would choose to ignore at the peril of disadvantaged people). Just.. this seems to be a running theme, and holding up the fact that rail lines across the country are built this way isn't indicative of success since we don't really have great transit almost anywhere in America.
No one talks about how much money we spend on new and updating highways. I wish that information would be headline worthy in the Strib!
People are trying, but honestly there aren't any road projects that come to mind that cost >$1 billion. And the really expensive ones move like hundreds of thousands of people a day and cover 80%+ of costs via the gas tax while transit covers 30% or less of operations (to say nothing of rolling the capital costs of building the line in). All of us here know there's waaaay more to it than that, but that conversation is extremely detailed. It's why a fringe of the population will read streets.mn articles or this forum and engage with the nuance but most can't see past a giant price tag for trains that serve a fraction of the region's population.

twinkess
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby twinkess » October 29th, 2015, 12:28 pm

Not disagreeing with anything, but I thought the gas tax was down to covering something like 50% of costs?

MNdible
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby MNdible » October 29th, 2015, 12:36 pm

A specific, heavily and efficiently used road project would presumably recover a much higher percentage of its cost via the gas tax than the generic, average project.

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woofner
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby woofner » October 29th, 2015, 12:42 pm

not reconstruct Olson as heavily.
Does anyone have more info on the plans for Olson? The Strib story said that it was "Metro Transit’s decision to overhaul Olson Hwy" -- is that accurate? Why would it be necessary to do a major reconstruction of an overbuilt highway? If that's true, couldn't FHWA funds be used?
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RailBaronYarr
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby RailBaronYarr » October 29th, 2015, 12:49 pm

A specific, heavily and efficiently used road project would presumably recover a much higher percentage of its cost via the gas tax than the generic, average project.
Yes. Urban interstates recover more than their maintenance costs (though the study that produced those graphics omitted initial land purchase, demolition, and construction, only focusing on an annualized cost including eventual re-build, I think). The "whole system" of roads is where you get down to sub-50% recovery.
not reconstruct Olson as heavily.
Does anyone have more info on the plans for Olson? The Strib story said that it was "Metro Transit’s decision to overhaul Olson Hwy" -- is that accurate? Why would it be necessary to do a major reconstruction of an overbuilt highway? If that's true, couldn't FHWA funds be used?
I don't have any accurate plans, but for reference, the chart at the bottom of this press release says Olson's share of the cost increase is only $23m.

amiller92
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby amiller92 » October 29th, 2015, 1:05 pm

I'm saying that 1) the process, dictated by federal rules to receive money (which we sent to them via the federal gas tax in the first place) is overly long and burdensome with criteria that don't always make sense, and 2) gets us in these tricky situations where we're forced to make a decision on a preferred alternative route based on not nearly enough (or accurate enough) information, and then we're kinda stuck with it even when things don't look nearly as good because re-opening the LPA process would be a nightmare and jeopardize said funding.
Kinda suggests that cost should not be a primary factor in determining the LPA, although it's hard to imagine how it can't be.

HiawathaGuy
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby HiawathaGuy » October 29th, 2015, 1:08 pm

I'm saying that 1) the process, dictated by federal rules to receive money (which we sent to them via the federal gas tax in the first place) is overly long and burdensome with criteria that don't always make sense, and 2) gets us in these tricky situations where we're forced to make a decision on a preferred alternative route based on not nearly enough (or accurate enough) information, and then we're kinda stuck with it even when things don't look nearly as good because re-opening the LPA process would be a nightmare and jeopardize said funding.
Kinda suggests that cost should not be a primary factor in determining the LPA, although it's hard to imagine how it can't be.
Agreed!

RailBaronYarr
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby RailBaronYarr » October 29th, 2015, 1:16 pm

..unless we were to more seriously evaluate alternatives before picking a route via a very lengthy LPA process to begin with. I'm curious how much money was spent on the LPA process, how much was spent on performing the 15% engineering studies (which are likely much more accurate than 1% estimates - is it fair to say costs will now be +/- 5-10% rather than 40-50%)? Maybe the process should allow us to do more in-depth engineering analysis on multiple route options to make a better decision on cost per rider (or maybe better, cost per incremental job/school/etc accessibility metric), which is used as the primary criteria with things like environmental, racial, etc impacts helping influence the decision.

Or not! Maybe everything is just fine in how we build transit in this country.

HiawathaGuy
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby HiawathaGuy » October 29th, 2015, 1:20 pm

only in government projects are 50% cost overruns tolerated.
These are not cost overruns.
Thank you. I'm thankful the article had some very good quotes in it, that said the same thing. Costs will always change - and if you make several big changes from the original proposal, of course costs will increase. But paying a little more now will certainly be cheaper than trying to build this in 10 or 20 years.

acs
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby acs » October 29th, 2015, 1:33 pm

Paying a little more now is still far more expensive than not building it at all. In 20 years with automated EV's and who knows what other technology we'll be planning how to best dismantle our fixed route transit system and wondering why we spend so many billions during the 2010's on antiquated technology. It's like investing in the pony express when the telegraph has been invented.

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FISHMANPET
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby FISHMANPET » October 29th, 2015, 1:40 pm

Yeah I don't think we'll ever be dismantling fixed route transit systems, especially not high capacity rail.

HiawathaGuy
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby HiawathaGuy » October 29th, 2015, 1:46 pm

Paying a little more now is still far more expensive than not building it at all. In 20 years with automated EV's and who knows what other technology we'll be planning how to best dismantle our fixed route transit system and wondering why we spend so many billions during the 2010's on antiquated technology. It's like investing in the pony express when the telegraph has been invented.
Granted, we don't know what the future holds. But people have been selling a lot of things to us for many decades. While cars may become automated, that's not going to reduce the need for public transit. Not as population continues to increase and space becomes even more valuable. It's like talking about not increasing roads - we will always need them, no matter if oil runs out or automated vehicles happen. Even once we have flying cars, we'll still need roads - for those who can't afford the kind that can fly. And not investing is Wisconsin talk. I'd much rather invest in public transit vs. not - no matter what. Because the overall public good that will happen between it being built and when there are automated EVs will still be invaluable.

amiller92
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby amiller92 » October 29th, 2015, 1:48 pm

Yeah I don't think we'll ever be dismantling fixed route transit systems, especially not high capacity rail.
Again, you mean. ;)

LakeCharles
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby LakeCharles » October 29th, 2015, 2:05 pm

Paying a little more now is still far more expensive than not building it at all. In 20 years with automated EV's and who knows what other technology we'll be planning how to best dismantle our fixed route transit system and wondering why we spend so many billions during the 2010's on antiquated technology. It's like investing in the pony express when the telegraph has been invented.
When we have 500,000 people in Minneapolis (many downtown) and 400,000 in St. Paul (many downtown or along University) you think the best, most efficient way to transport all those people from one downtown to another is individual automated vehicles?
:roll:

TroyGBiv
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby TroyGBiv » October 29th, 2015, 10:51 pm

EVs are are for Disney Imagineers.... The future actually will be the self driving cars that google and other software/computer companies are creating and testing right now... we will have to buy our own "electric" vehicle and they will drive on roads. Trains and "mass" transit is for moving large numbers of people to and through urban centers. That is infrastructure that handles volumes and reduces our dependency on petroleum (in theory) and reduces the number of individuals and their cars from clogging the roads and forcing a lot of land use to be reserved for car parking... spreading out the city and reducing the density and creating more car dependency...

mattaudio
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby mattaudio » November 3rd, 2015, 1:19 pm

Why local officials aren't freaking out about the $1.48 billion price tag for Bottineau LRT
http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy ... -bottineau

With this cool photo showing how the flying junction will work between Green and Blue west of Target Field. Too bad we didn't get a flying junction for the east side of downtown.
Image

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FISHMANPET
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby FISHMANPET » November 3rd, 2015, 1:37 pm

SCREW YOU CHICAGO AVE STOPLIGHTS

HiawathaGuy
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby HiawathaGuy » November 3rd, 2015, 3:26 pm

SCREW YOU CHICAGO AVE STOPLIGHTS
I wish the trains would fully preempt that light - or better, have a crossing gate.

mattaudio
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby mattaudio » November 3rd, 2015, 3:48 pm

Or better, move S 4th St to the north of the LRT tracks, thereby eliminating one of the phases (and the busiest phase conflict, LRT vs eastbound 4th Street) altogether. Though it would require taking the corner off the development site for the MSFA ramp... But now, more than ever, is the ideal time to make that change.

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Silophant
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Re: Bottineau LRT (Blue Line Extension)

Postby Silophant » November 3rd, 2015, 4:02 pm

Given how often Chicago is closed in front of the stadium, if we moved 4th I'd think we could close Chicago as well, and have no phase conflicts at all.

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