Orange Line / 35W@94: Downtown to Crosstown Project

[Mdcastle]

Also, waiting around in a heated college where you can do your homework or having a snack (there's a zillion formal and informal spots to sit down and do so- my favorite was on top of the radiators in front of the 2nd floor glass wall facing the parking lot) until it's time for your bus would seem to be a lot more palatable than standing around in zero degree weather waiting for a transfer.

[DanPatchToget]

Also, waiting around in a heated college where you can do your homework or having a snack (there's a zillion formal and informal spots to sit down and do so- my favorite was on top of the radiators in front of the 2nd floor glass wall facing the parking lot) until it's time for your bus would seem to be a lot more palatable than standing around in zero degree weather waiting for a transfer.

A couple years ago they moved the bus stop from the college's front entrance to just west of there, and you can't see the buses from the entrance. If you want to be certain your bus won't leave without you then you have to go outside and wait in the tiny shelter with one of those dinky heaters. So transfer or not you have to wait outside.

[Bakken2016]

On average, about 600 rides are being taken on the METRO Orange Line each weekday, twice the amount taken on the route it replaced, Route 535.

Tis a bit grim, but we are still in a pandemic and seeing a double in ridership.

Source: Metro Transit Insights(weekly employee newsleter)

[mamundsen]

That sounds decent. IF office workers begin to come back this summer, we will see ridership explode. I really hope that Metro Transit can hire drivers and get back to pre-pandemic schedules. That problem feels a bit Chicken and Egg... if the schedules are not up, riders will chose to drive, but if riders aren't there they won't add to schedules.

[DanPatchToget]

On average, about 600 rides are being taken on the METRO Orange Line each weekday, twice the amount taken on the route it replaced, Route 535.

Tis a bit grim, but we are still in a pandemic and seeing a double in ridership.

Source: Metro Transit Insights(weekly employee newsleter)

A far cry from pre-pandemic levels. I think the 535 had around 1,200 average weekday riders last I checked before the pandemic. Would be interesting to see the Red Line's ridership since I believe it was around 800-1,100 average riders (lower end on the weekend, higher end on weekdays) before the pandemic.

I won't get my hopes up on people rushing back to their downtown offices this year. I'm sure a certain number will return, but I won't expect a surge in office workers plus a surge in transit ridership. I do hope there's enough ridership and drivers to maintain the Orange Line's 15-minute frequency on weekdays plus the local transit connection improvements.

[Hero]

If route 535 only had 1,200 daily riders and the A and C lines had a 30% bump in ridership over the routes they replaced how does the Orange line reach 8,000-10,000 daily riders? COVID or no COVID I can't imagine where the extra riders will appear from. Maybe future park and ride parking structures?

[Trademark]

If route 535 only had 1,200 daily riders and the A and C lines had a 30% bump in ridership over the routes they replaced how does the Orange line reach 8,000-10,000 daily riders? COVID or no COVID I can't imagine where the extra riders will appear from. Maybe future park and ride parking structures?

I think the downtown to Lake street connection will drive a fair amount of riders once people realize the convenience of the connection. Or Orange to 515 to Southdale. And going across the river to Burnsville is huge. I wouldn't be surprised if the Orange Line grew to 3-4k once COVID is over. It does have a significant frequency boost over the 535. But I agree that 8k-10k riders wont be easy especially for at least a decade. I think this route still has a lot of potential that something like the Red Line will never have but it will take time to grow into that potential. Would have helped if it went all the way to Burnsville Center thoiugh.

[alexschief]

There's this thing where everyone argues about the first scraps of data to come out and tries to fit them to some future outcome. Not to be the fun police here, but I just don't think it's productive.

The Orange Line is opening up amidst a pandemic where downtown office attendance is 30-40% of the pre-pandemic norm and we have absolutely no idea what the post-pandemic norm will look like, except that it'll probably be more than what we're seeing today. Add to that the Omicron wave, which is making statistics even less reliable for the time being. Then we're trying to compare these early ridership numbers to pre-pandemic projections for decades in the future? There are so many variables here (there are so many potential development sites along the route, for instance), I'm not sure it's possible to make an educated prediction.

It's a bummer to have to wait for data, but let's at least see what's happening six months after the curtain more plausibly closes on the pandemic (and perhaps that will happen within the next few months if the Omicron wave burns out as quickly as it has elsewhere). Then maybe we can start saying some smart things about ridership.

[Tcmetro]

I believe the 8-10,000 daily rider estimate included the pre-pandemic express bus network as it existed. The Orange Line itself only replaced the 535 and 597 routes, but there's about two dozen other express routes in the corridor.

[DanPatchToget]

Nothing wrong with looking at initial data and seeing what the data and predictions were pre-pandemic. I don't think anyone is expecting the Orange Line, or any route for that matter, to have pre-pandemic ridership levels in the near future. However, looking at pre-pandemic ridership vs ridership now can show how important and useful a route is or isn't; express route ridership has fallen off a cliff since it was mostly used by downtown office workers that are now working from home, while routes like the C Line, 5, 18, etc. have fared better since they serve a diverse ridership base, not just one type of ridership base like the express routes do. If the Orange Line is having double the ridership of the 535's pandemic ridership then that's a good sign, but the question then is when will it achieve the 535's pre-pandemic ridership and exceed that? That of course is an unknown, but I do know if cities along the route want more butts in the seats then they need to make sure station areas get higher density and mixed-uses that will support the Orange Line. Building more park & rides and praying for office workers to return to downtown isn't a near-term or even long-term solution.

[Hero]

If route 535 only had 1,200 daily riders and the A and C lines had a 30% bump in ridership over the routes they replaced how does the Orange line reach 8,000-10,000 daily riders? COVID or no COVID I can't imagine where the extra riders will appear from. Maybe future park and ride parking structures?

I think the downtown to Lake street connection will drive a fair amount of riders once people realize the convenience of the connection. Or Orange to 515 to Southdale. And going across the river to Burnsville is huge. I wouldn't be surprised if the Orange Line grew to 3-4k once COVID is over. It does have a significant frequency boost over the 535. But I agree that 8k-10k riders wont be easy especially for at least a decade. I think this route still has a lot of potential that something like the Red Line will never have but it will take time to grow into that potential. Would have helped if it went all the way to Burnsville Center thoiugh.

I also think the Lake street station will be quite popular. What I don't understand is why ridership projections have Lake street as the least used station. I feel this projection is partly responsible for the lack of stations at Franklin and 38th. I can't help but get the feeling planners are building a system that prioritizes the suburban rider over the urban ones. Why was route 535 selected when the shorter and more used route 23 was not? I know this rant gives the impression I'm against the Orange line but I am not against it I just wish it was better.

[DanPatchToget]

Take this with a grain of salt, but in this month's Bloomington Briefing they mention the Orange Line and that currently there are 14,000 riders along the I-35W Corridor using just the express routes. Seems like a pre-pandemic ridership figure.

[Hero]

Take this with a grain of salt, but in this month's Bloomington Briefing they mention the Orange Line and that currently there are 14,000 riders along the I-35W Corridor using just the express routes. Seems like a pre-pandemic ridership figure.

I wonder if the express routes will go away and more feeder routes added. That could drive ridership but I don't see it happening.

[Mdcastle]

I don't think many express bus riders are going to want to take a feeder bus (that stops several times), get out into the cold again to the Orange Line (that also stops several times) as opposed to just taking an express bus downtown. If the only way to make a project successful is to destroy more attractive alternatives, it's a bad project.

[DanPatchToget]

More attractive doesn't equal more efficient. Sure the 597 was nice for the pre-pandemic commuters who could either board from a neighborhood bus stop or park at one of the park & rides the 597 served, but for everyone else not so much with a very limited schedule that was mostly convenient for just suburb-to-downtown commuters. Plus we can't really know for sure whether the 597 or the Orange Line is more attractive since I'm sure most of the 597's ridership base is still working from home. While the Orange Line takes longer to get downtown than the 597, the high frequency and guaranteed seat on the Orange Line makes that a huge bonus. For people who take a local connection to the Orange Line the wait wouldn't be long since it's high frequency. We're in Minnesota, eventually you have to go outside into the cold no matter what mode of transportation you use. Unless you have a heated garage you're going to be cold getting in your vehicle, and unless the parking ramps are heated you're going to be cold getting out of your car.

[COLSLAW5]

I was looking at the map for the orange line and I was wondering if anyone knew why they didn't or couldn't even now add stations on the on and off ramps at diamond lake road. Seems like it would server a large population to add a station there.

[DanPatchToget]

Buses would have to merge across all lanes of traffic going between an inline Diamond Lake Road Station and the online 46th Street Station. During off-peak hours that might not be an issue, but during rush hour it would likely be difficult to merge across in enough time to reach the access point for each station.

[mattaudio]

Big picture though, there are definitely some missed opportunities with the Orange Line. Center stations at 38th St and Franklin Ave would have been great, along with a station at Nicollet (short walk to Hub redevelopment, anyone?).

[Hero]

I was looking at the map for the orange line and I was wondering if anyone knew why they didn't or couldn't even now add stations on the on and off ramps at diamond lake road. Seems like it would server a large population to add a station there.

Diamond lake did have a stop but just like the 46 weekend service it was upgraded out of existence.

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.9036461 ... 2?hl=en-GB

I guess if you live in the area the speedy 18 is your best bet.

[Bakken2016]

I was looking at the map for the orange line and I was wondering if anyone knew why they didn't or couldn't even now add stations on the on and off ramps at diamond lake road. Seems like it would server a large population to add a station there.

Diamond lake did have a stop but just like the 46 weekend service it was upgraded out of existence.

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.9036461 ... 2?hl=en-GB

I guess if you live in the area the speedy 18 is your best bet.

Well that was used for the 554 express bus pre-covid, the Orange Line was never planned to stop there.