Minnesota Redistricting 2022

[Bakken2016]

Here is the state senate:

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#vie ... 83022e05fd

[twincitizen]

Thanks!

Not as many incumbent pairings for metro DFLers in the Senate as compared to the House. Melisa Lopez-Franzen and Ron Latz in the new Edina-SLP district, where it's all but certain that Latz will retire rather than primary the DFL senate leader, even though he's got more seniority. I doubt Latz was prepared to retire just yet, but what's he gonna do?

There's John Marty and Jason Isaacson in Roseville-Shoreview, where Marty's been around for 36 years and Isaacson is an up-and-comer. Geographically, the new district looks much more like Isaacson's current one than Marty's. Tough call for Marty to hang it up when there's at least a tiny chance at the DFL retaking the majority, but he should retire.

Otherwise things look favorable for some DFL pickups/holds over the next decade. Ann Johnson Stewart got paired up with GOPer David Osmek in the new SD45 of Minnetonka city + lake towns, which is tougher for a DFLer than her current seat but competitive in years that aren't red waves. And the resulting new open seat SD42 covering all of Plymouth likelys lean blue by a few points. In Coon Rapids+Anoka, the DFL should be able to knock off Jim Abeler in what's now a much bluer district. That could happen this cycle with a great candidate, but "moderate" Abeler could hang on in a weak year for Dems against a mediocre DFL candidate. The new SD36 (incumbent R-Chamberlain, Lino Lakes) looks pretty DFL-friendly as well, and unlike Abeler, Chamberlain is no moderate. I suspect that will be a top DFL target.

Am I totally off-base to think that the DFL at least has a chance of taking the Senate? Or are Bakk and Tomassoni's seats definitely going to the GOP, cancelling out any metro DFL gains? DFL was at 33-34 with them as DFLers, would be 31-36 with those as GOP seats. Need a 3 seat pickup in the metro, at minimum, to get 34. Knocking off Senjem in Rochester is a must.

Here's a good reference to track all the retirements and folks seeking other offices, sure to grow longer in the near future: https://www.lrl.mn.gov/history/retire

[Bakken2016]

I agree, they do have a chance to take the Senate, epically with some of these new metro drawn seats and Rochester, Senjem got drawn into a much bluer senate seat, which I believe will flip. I think the DFL will hold onto the house, probably about the same margin as they are at today. Minnesota is a blue state, and even in some of the biggest red waves still vote predominately blue. It will be an interesting election year for sure.

[MNdible]

I'd wager $20 they don't take the Senate. Not as bad as the Congressional Districts, but worse than the state house, the numbers are stacked against the DFL. They would need to have a year where they outperform the baseline, and I just don't see 2022 being that year. I think Walz is more popular than some people assume, and never underestimate the GOP's predilection for nominating truly unlikeable candidates, but I just don't see the MN Senate flipping.

[thespeedmccool]

Two things:

1. These maps are better than the current ones, but Dems are super unpopular nationwide right now. Expect Dems to lose both chambers, but not as badly as 2010 or 2014.

2. Walz will win so long as a third party candidate doesn't confuse the electorate. Cory Hepola, former WCCO host, is thinking of running from the left, and add on one or two fake pot candidates and you could be looking at Governor Scott Jensen at the head of a GOP trifecta -- an absolutely unthinkale nightmare for the state. (Also of note, Dick Painter may run third party (Yang's Forward Party mostly likely) against Ellison -- again, this would be a disaster and Doug Wardlow would become homophobe general.)

[twincitizen]

I know that nationally things are bad for Dems, but I think the massive unknown is how big can a red wave really be when Trump himself is not on the ballot. He was not able to turn out his party at all in 2018 and D's ran the table. In 2016 and 2020, R's outperformed polls principally due to that incalculable Trumpy magic that brings his voters (and likely a huge contingent of previous nonvoters) out of the woodwork. He isn't on the ballot in 2022, and neither is Biden.

It's looking more likely every day that COVID will be several months in the rearview mirror by fall. A lot will happen between now and then! Kids will all be back in school, likely not required to wear masks, more parents back at the office, and vax-proof requirements will be limited-to-nonexistent. What's left for the GOP to rage about? CRT? Caravan of Immigrants 2: Electric Boogaloo? The real wildcards to me are this Russia-Ukraine thing and how much blame Biden gets for whatever does/doesn't happen, and the prospect of more police violence resulting in more riots in "Democrat-run cities". There are also some wild cards out there that could increase Dem motivation, like Supreme Court decisions on abortion restrictions.

It's not going to be a good year for Democrats by any means, but as a baseline, nationally, I'd say holding the US Senate at 50-50 (or better, since WI-PA would net 2 seats) and nearly all Democratic governors keeping their jobs would be a really good result in a red wave year. Dems are gonna lose the US House, no question. Nearly impossible to overcome the amount of gerrymandering in GOP-controlled states, even with NY-CA-IL-MD gerrymandering as hard as they can to skew things back in the other direction. And this won't be a House election like 2012 in which Ds got more total votes than Rs, but Rs still win (due to gerrymandering and Dem voters self-packing in the densest/bluest districts). I'd expect this will be an election more like '14 and '16 where the R candidates for House actually get more total votes nationally and take a solid majority that will last a few cycles.

EDIT: Good point about 3rd party spoilers. That's probably the main/only thing that would keep Walz from a second term. I can't see Hepola getting more than 1-2% statewide...what is his constituency even? I hadn't heard of him until yesterday. I'd imagine independents do significantly better in races without an incumbent. Walz is a well-known quantity with a decent base outside of hardcore metro Dems, and should be able to keep 99% of his coalition together, especially if the alternative is Jensen or Gazelka. With the pandemic in the rearview and life returning to normal, I have to imagine Walz's approval numbers will see a bounce, and probably another one after the GOP primary if it's Jensen or Gazelka. Michelle Benson is the one GOP candidate for Governor I'm worried about. Suburban woman, looks like she could be your friend's mom, doesn't seem to be batshit crazy.

[thespeedmccool]

I know that nationally things are bad for Dems, but I think the massive unknown is how big can a red wave really be when Trump himself is not on the ballot. He was not able to turn out his party at all in 2018 and D's ran the table. In 2016 and 2020, R's outperformed polls principally due to that incalculable Trumpy magic that brings his voters (and likely a huge contingent of previous nonvoters) out of the woodwork. He isn't on the ballot in 2022, and neither is Biden.

I think this is a good point, but we also don't know how traditional Republicans that flipped to Trump (primarily middle- to upper-class suburbanites) in 2018 and 2020 will react to Biden. Was there flip a temporary shift to oppose Trump, or are they Democrats now? (For my money, it's a mostly permanent shift, but even a 5% shift back to the GOP loses the House for the DFL -- the math is very tight.) Between Trumpers not turning out becuase he's not on the ballot and suburbanites shifting back to the GOP (however slightly,) there's a lot of outstanding factors that are hard to pin down. I think the coalition shifting that happened under Trump is really good longterm for the MNDFL, but in the short-term, it's tougher to say.

It's looking more likely every day that COVID will be several months in the rearview mirror by fall. A lot will happen between now and then! Kids will all be back in school, likely not required to wear masks, more parents back at the office, and vax-proof requirements will be limited-to-nonexistent. What's left for the GOP to rage about? CRT? Caravan of Immigrants 2: Electric Boogaloo? The real wildcards to me are this Russia-Ukraine thing and how much blame Biden gets for whatever does/doesn't happen, and the prospect of more police violence resulting in more riots in "Democrat-run cities". There are also some wild cards out there that could increase Dem motivation, like Supreme Court decisions on abortion restrictions.

Agree that the issues Republicans have been setting up are weak, but it's not like the Democrats are running on anything super strong either. I'm honestly fairly confident Dems will get something done this year, but who knows if it will be something worth running on?

Further, I think you underestimate two things: inflation, which actually caused real wages to fall in the last year and is really well correlated with losing elections, and the Republican Party's uncanny ablility to turn very small, isolated incidents into evidence of some grand liberal conspiracy, which really does scare people. Put these together and Dems are losing according to traditional analysis ("it's the economy, stupid!") and modern analysis.

[mplsjaromir]

You gotta remember that with 1,000,000+ extra deaths, and the clear majority of the politically active victims GOP leaning, it wont be quite the home run some think.

[SurlyLHT]

Inflation might ease off as COVID wanes and the supply chain issues ease and the rate hikes tap the brakes. Even if it does I'm not sure it will hit the news before the election.

[tedlanda2571]

You gotta remember that with 1,000,000+ extra deaths, and the clear majority of the politically active victims GOP leaning, it wont be quite the home run some think.

People always want to think changing demographics are right around the corner to save Democrats. Hint: they aren't.

Yes, the recent death toll is heavily slanted towards anti-vax Trumper types. But for most of the pandemic, it was actually Blue places where the death toll was greater, so much of the recent imbalance is more or less 'evening out'.

[thespeedmccool]

You gotta remember that with 1,000,000+ extra deaths, and the clear majority of the politically active victims GOP leaning, it wont be quite the home run some think.

Yeah this isn't going to be a factor. Even if 75% of deaths were Republicans, that's only a net 500,000 votes spread out more or less evenly throughout the country (and actually biased slightly toward places Dems can't win anyways.)

If the final margin is under 1,000 for a statewide race, then we can talk about COVID deaths having made the difference.

[twincitizen]

Thanks!

Not as many incumbent pairings for metro DFLers in the Senate as compared to the House. Melisa Lopez-Franzen and Ron Latz in the new Edina-SLP district, where it's all but certain that Latz will retire rather than primary the DFL senate leader, even though he's got more seniority. I doubt Latz was prepared to retire just yet, but what's he gonna do?

There's John Marty and Jason Isaacson in Roseville-Shoreview, where Marty's been around for 36 years and Isaacson is an up-and-comer. Geographically, the new district looks much more like Isaacson's current one than Marty's. Tough call for Marty to hang it up when there's at least a tiny chance at the DFL retaking the majority, but he should retire.

Here's a good reference to track all the retirements and folks seeking other offices, sure to grow longer in the near future: https://www.lrl.mn.gov/history/retire

I know I'm pretty deep into "no one cares" territory here, but my political instincts were wrong on this one. Senate DFL leader Lopez-Franzen announced today she will retire rather than face off with Latz in a primary. I don't know where she'll resurface, but there's a 0% chance she's done with politics. I would not be shocked to see her run for Congress, either waiting out Dean Phillips' seat or going straight for the US Senate when Klobuchar or Smith retire (both are in their early 60s now, though certainly either of them could serve 20+ more years, a la Feinstein.) Lopez-Franzen previously threw her name in the hat when Franken stepped down and Gov. Dayton ultimately nominated Smith. I do want to say, metro DFLers' early 2020 ousting of Tom Bakk as DFL leader (in favor of Susan Kent) looks especially stupid today, in light of the fact that neither Kent nor Franzen are running again. Presumably when doing so, Kent and her allies assumed the DFL would've taken the chamber back in the 2020 election...whoops. Who's the inside favorite for Senate DFL Leader now?

There have been a number of other retirement announcements and running-for-other-office announcements since the maps came out, with more to come I'm sure. A handful of the paired-up duos have not announced intentions yet, including Hornstein and Long in Mpls.

[Bakken2016]

https://twitter.com/Jamiemlong/status/1 ... OLwjgETV7Q

Long has announced he is running, I'm worried about Hornstein. He is a big transit supporter and I hate to lose that in the MN House.

[MNdible]

I don't think that the ouster of Bakk had anything to do with the specific person replacing him, but rather with the type of person who should hold that position. Specifically, somebody from a suburban seat and somebody who wasn't the most conservative member of your caucus. I'm not sure much really could have been done to stop Bakk from leaving, given that mining is the most important issue to him and the majority of the DFL caucus was opposed to mining expansion. It will be interesting to see what happens to that seat when he retires. I don't see it being in play for the DFL again in the foreseeable future, but will it be held by a fairly moderate/independent Republican?

I guess Latz isn't as old as I thought he was (looks like he's 59 or so), but maybe there was a handshake agreement that he'll retire after next term?

[thespeedmccool]

Bakk was and is a clown. He got absolutely smoked in 2016, losing 6 seats and the Senate because he was flatfooted. He got replaced becuase he's a curmudgeon who couldn't be a team player with metro progressives.

Bakk would've stayed in the caucus if the DFL won the Senate in 2020. He was promised the Capital Investment gavel if he jumped and he took it. Total power play, he didn't want to spend two years in a functionless minority role.

Bakk's seat is out of the DFL's reach in what's shaping up to be a bad year for Dems, but it's not a total loss long-term.

Frontrunner for Senate DFL lead may be Nick Frentz of Mankato. Pretty middle-of-the-road DFLer from outstate who's in leadership now. Also watch for Foung Hawj of east St. Paul and Kent Eken of the Moorhead area (if he wins, which looks unlikely.) Both of them are leadership members, but don't necessarily check all the boxes.

[BigIdeasGuy]

Frontrunner for Senate DFL lead may be Nick Frentz of Mankato. Pretty middle-of-the-road DFLer from outstate who's in leadership now. Also watch for Foung Hawj of east St. Paul and Kent Eken of the Moorhead area (if he wins, which looks unlikely.) Both of them are leadership members, but don't necessarily check all the boxes.

Not an insider by any means but Frentz is who immediately jumped into my head as well. He ran in the open race to replace Kent so clearly there is interest on his part.

Also worth noting if he won that 2 of the 3 DFL leaders at the capitol would hail from Mankato with Hortman being from Brooklyn Park

[Blaisdell Greenway]

https://twitter.com/Jamiemlong/status/1 ... OLwjgETV7Q

Long has announced he is running, I'm worried about Hornstein. He is a big transit supporter and I hate to lose that in the MN House.

Esther Agbaje of 59B was drawn into 61A and announced she would move to stay with 59B. Soon after, Hornstein announced he would move to stick with 61A. Esther is younger (30s?) and a renter, Hornstein is an empty nester. I am glad we can keep both without a primary fight.

[Bakken2016]

https://twitter.com/Jamiemlong/status/1 ... OLwjgETV7Q

Long has announced he is running, I'm worried about Hornstein. He is a big transit supporter and I hate to lose that in the MN House.

Esther Agbaje of 59B was drawn into 61A and announced she would move to stay with 59B. Soon after, Hornstein announced he would move to stick with 61A. Esther is younger (30s?) and a renter, Hornstein is an empty nester. I am glad we can keep both without a primary fight.

That is great to hear! Esther is my rep currently, and I'm glad I'll be able to vote for her again!

[Bakken2016]

THE DFL HAS SECURED A TRIFECTA IN MINNESOTA!

[thespeedmccool]

Northstar extension and NLX incoming