Minnesota Redistricting 2022

[Tiller]

It really is a shame we weren't able to get a DFL Trifecta. The state legislative redistricting maps that the DFL (Rep. Mary Murphy) submitted would add something like 4 more DFL state senate districts to the current 27 in the metro, and 2 DFL state senate districts in Rochester. There's probably more goodies like that elsewhere in the state.


https://www.gis.lcc.mn.gov/redist2020/plans.html

[BoredAgain]

Gerrymandering is bad. Even if it serves the people you like.

[thespeedmccool]

Gerrymandering can be good, when it corrects for the natural political geogrpahy disadvantage of one side.

Let's not be naive, politcal factions exist and redistricting should acknowledge this reality. If the majority political group is repeatedly losing, your democracy is broken. If gerrymandering fixes it, so be it.

[Tiller]

Gerrymandering is bad. Even if it serves the people you like.

Just to note, I'd say at least half of that change is due to population growth in urban areas and decline of rural areas, not where the lines are drawn. So we should still see DFL gains from whatever the courts draw. We very narrowly missed out on gaining several of those senate seats in the last election.

Sure gerrymandering is bad, but only one side recognizes that, and is trying to outlaw the practice even as they need to use it to compete. The other side has used it to undermine our democracy in favor of minority rule. Those two things aren't the same.

[MNdible]

This is true. At the same time, the DFL vote has also managed to make itself even less efficient, meaning that it has way more votes than it needs to capture seats in the urban core, making those excess votes essentially wasted. This is why we're likely to see the trend continuing of the DFL winning statewide races but struggling to control the legislature.

(That said, I'm a little nervous about the statewide races this year. A lot of headwinds for Walz).

[twincitizen]

There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the DFL's chances in this midterm election, but redistricting isn't one of them. The GOP will definitely win several seats held by retiring DFL incumbents in districts that voted for Trump. The DFL nearly held onto the state senate in '16, as Clinton barely carried the state. If the senate had been on the ballot in 2018, the DFL absolutely would've taken it then. And we all know what happened in 2020 with the weed party candidates absolutely being the difference maker in one district, possibly two, which would've given the DFL control. Even with the loss of additional rural seats, population growth in the metro and regional centers like Mankato and Rochester will stanch the bleeding somewhat by giving the DFL a higher baseline, even in a GOP wave year (i.e. while the GOP could win the house and senate, I don't think they could ever regain a 76-57 advantage in the House like they did in 2016)

The wild card that should give everyone heartburn is how motivated people will be to vote against the DFL due to pandemic policies, probably driven much more by school closures than anything related to business restrictions, masking, or vaccines. Hence why you see Democratic governors across the country doing everything they can to keep schools open, not re-instituting statewide mask mandates, etc. The DFL desperately needs the pandemic to be "over" in like a month, and for the national environment for Democrats to not get any worse between now and November.

The best hope for downballot DFLers is the GOP picking a really flawed candidate like Scott Jensen or Paul Gazelka. Someone like Michelle Benson could actually give Walz a fight, but the wacky Qanon doctor or the uber-religious anti-LGBT guy aren't the best picks if you're trying to win in Woodbury, Plymouth, Rochester, etc. The best hopes for the GOP are: another COVID variant prolonging the pandemic, especially school closures, suburban carjackings remaining in the news, and god help us, any more "unrest".

[uptownbro]

I think Walz is in very good shape at this point. His last approval number in late 2021 was 55% so hes the odds on favorite to win again.
https://www.minnpost.com/community-voic ... rtunities/

In a way he has been able to not get dragged down via the latest covid wave by not having the power to do anything and put the issue at the local level.

Down ballot I think will be a awful even inside parts of the metro driven mostly by school closures. Its the one issue i think that really drives parents from all backgrounds who wouldn't normally vote for the GOP to there side or to sit out. The state DFL seems to see this and has more or less made the policy that every district from Duluth to Minneapolis has to stay open.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/36 ... -to-watch/

[mplsjaromir]

If the DFL doesn’t hammer the MNGOP for its close association with Tony Lazaro, they deserve to lose.

The entire fiasco does really highlight what a bunch of marks Minnesota republicans are.

[thespeedmccool]

If the DFL doesn’t hammer the MNGOP for its close association with Tony Lazaro, they deserve to lose.

The entire fiasco does really highlight what a bunch of marks Minnesota republicans are.

It's hard to make voters care about "inside baseball," but I agree. The MNGOP may be the most inept state party in the nation, and I'm not sure it's close. MN hasn't voted for any Republican at all since 2006 (and that was because Mike Hatch was a dingus) and that's insane considering MN only leans about a point or two to the left.

[mplsjaromir]

The head of party and their congressperson spouse were friends (hosted a podcast together) with a guy who was (what the indictment alleges) sex trafficking underage girls for donors to the party. He also posted dozens of pictures of himself with prominent to semi prominent GOP figures.

It’s sensational in so many ways. Not at dry or esoteric.

[MNdible]

It's sensational, yes, but it's also difficult to make a meaningful connection between that salacious story and most candidates. They can just say, "I didn't know him, I returned any funds I received from him, and I condemn his actions." And for most candidates, that will be true. End of story.

[mplsjaromir]

He was tight with the top of the party. It shows a complete lack of critical thinking. Some guy who has a bunch of inexplicable money who is saying whatever Republicans whatever they want to hear becomes a top donor. Very sketchy.

Jim Hagedorn definitely should be sweating about this right now.

[MNdible]

Hagedorn is clearly the most (only?) prominent candidate who can be directly tied to this, but with his health issues, I'd assumed he won't be running again anyway. No announcement yet, but maybe everybody is waiting for the new district maps before making any announcements?

[Tiller]

Redistricting maps are out, and found a copy of the state house map (at bottom). Shoutout to Mankato and Rochester for balancing out DFL losses on the Iron Range. Hopefully the new districts will be enough in 2022 to keep a narrow majority.

MN House (Metro)
49 Safe DFL > 53 Safe DFL
6 Tilt/Lean DFL > 10 Tilt/Lean DFL
2 Tilt/Lean GOP > 4 Tilt/Lean GOP
(changes in the rest of the state mostly balance out)

MN Senate (Metro)
23 Safe DFL > 27 Safe DFL
3 Tilt/Lean DFL > 4 Tilt/Lean DFL
2 Tilt/Lean GOP > 2 Tilt/Lean GOP
(changes in the rest of the state mostly balance out)

Almost 100% of Hennepin, Ramsey, and Washington counties are going to be represented by the DFL soon. Plus the southern half of Anoka and the northern half of Dakota. In 10 years, assuming things continue as-is, the Metro will be enough to put the DFL over 50% in the legislature, and regional cities like Duluth and Rochester will give it a more comfortable governing majority.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#vie ... bd950401be

[Trademark]

Redistricting maps are out, and found a copy of the state house map (at bottom). Shoutout to Mankato and Rochester for balancing out DFL losses on the Iron Range. Hopefully the new districts will be enough in 2022 to keep a narrow majority.

MN House (Metro)
49 Safe DFL > 53 Safe DFL
6 Tilt/Lean DFL > 10 Tilt/Lean DFL
2 Tilt/Lean GOP > 4 Tilt/Lean GOP
(changes in the rest of the state mostly balance out)

MN Senate (Metro)
23 Safe DFL > 27 Safe DFL
3 Tilt/Lean DFL > 4 Tilt/Lean DFL
2 Tilt/Lean GOP > 2 Tilt/Lean GOP
(changes in the rest of the state mostly balance out)

Almost 100% of Hennepin, Ramsey, and Washington counties are going to be represented by the DFL soon. Plus the southern half of Anoka and the northern half of Dakota. In 10 years, assuming things continue as-is, the Metro will be enough to put the DFL over 50% in the legislature, and regional cities like Duluth and Rochester will give it a more comfortable governing majority.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#vie ... bd950401be

What are the numbers for the rest of the state?

[MNdible]

Worth remembering that there are still a few stalwart DFLers holding onto seats in deep red outstate districts, and eventually they'll retire or get knocked off.

[Mikey]

I just wish they'd put us Cook County and Lake County "hippies" with the St Louis County shoreline instead of the iron range

Really tired of having my reps being so F$%#!* pro-mining when most of us (at least in Cook) being very pro-BWCAW

[mamundsen]

Looks like the districts were renumbered. Is that typical? Will there be an official map that is this detailed? Is there a comparison version? I’d love to toggle back and forth to see how lines near me shifted.

[BBMplsMN]

Looks like the districts were renumbered. Is that typical? Will there be an official map that is this detailed? Is there a comparison version? I’d love to toggle back and forth to see how lines near me shifted.

Star Tribune has a map that you can toggle between the old and new districts.

[twincitizen]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#vie ... bd950401be

These DRA maps are my favorite of all the interactive maps out there because they include incumbent's home locations, showing all of the potential intraparty primaries and open seats without an incumbent.

There are a TON of incumbents paired up...way more than you'd expect. It seems unlikely that very many paired up incumbents will relocate...the job just doesn't pay enough to do that, especially in the current red hot housing market with limited supply. Maybe if you've got a wealthy spouse or are currently renting, it's more feasible to move to avoid a primary. But if you like your house/neighborhood/child's school attendance area, and aren't independently wealthy, you probably take your chances on an intraparty primary, or talk to the other incumbent and decide who's gonna step away.

The goofiest pairing might be GOPers Nolan West and Donald Raleigh in southern Blaine & Lexington. The newly more compact district, concentrated in southern Blaine and including no exurban/rural areas, now has a solid DFL lean. Those two could face off in a primary for a seat that will very likely be won by a DFLer, even if 2022 is a tough year overall. But right next door, White Bear Lake DFLer Amy Wazlawik's new district picked up all of North Oaks and Lino Lakes that used to be in Raleigh's old district, so she's going to have a tougher time keeping that seat in DFL hands.

The flipside of the 2nd ring suburb districts getting more compact and safely blue is that the next ring of districts further out are now more exurban and solidly red than the old pinkish districts. In the House, Pat Garafalo's south suburban/exurban district is much safer. Warren Limmer's Maple Grove Senate district is now much safer for the GOP, after nearly being ousted last election.

So while things look at least even for the DFL at the legislature, I'm afraid future pick-up opportunities are very limited, unless the DFL suddenly figures out how to start winning in more regional centers like Bemidji, Brainerd, and Red Wing, etc. And they'll need to do that on top of winning both St. Cloud districts, both Mankato districts, and holding the (at least three) DFL-held house seats in the increasingly-red Iron Range / Arrowhead, etc. I feel better about St. Cloud and Rochester than the range, which is an election or two away from being a lost cause for the DFL.

Is there a state senate version from DRA?