Northstar Commuter Rail

[mulad]

It sure would be interesting if Amtrak could make an arrangement to pull spare cars from the commuter railroads across the country and supplement their limited capacity. 10% of the US BiLevel fleet would be like 47 cars, or you could get close to triple that if it's possible to pull from Canada (considering Buy America requirements).

The door heights are unfortunately wrong for Superliners unless you mix in "transition" cars that have standard-height doors on one end and high doors on the other. BiLevels are compatible with Horizon door heights, though.

[mulad]

At some point I hope to write a blog post about it, but the easiest extension of Northstar (aside from going to St. Cloud, which I feel is more an issue of money and political will than anything) would be to continue west from Target Field on the BNSF Wayzata Subdivision line. It only carries about 8 trains per day right near the station, with a few branch lines coming off of it really close by. Past the junction by the Bryn Mawr light rail station, it's only carrying about 6 trains/day, or maybe even less.

Most of the line is good for 60 mph freight and it has proper signaling, so it should be able to easily carry 75-79 mph passenger trains. It runs out to Willmar, which isn't a huge place, though I feel it may have more interesting/useful intermediate stops for a lot of people.

Trains could continue through there northwest toward Fargo via Breckenridge, though traffic increases to about 10 freights/day. The line southwest from Willmar to Sioux City also has about 10/day, but doesn't have proper signaling for full speed passenger service, from what I can tell

Connecting Target Field would just take adding a connection to the tail track west of the station. Towns along the line would need stations/platforms, but there are several sidings along the way out to Willmar that give it good capacity

[Oreos&Milk]

So, one of the holdups with the Borealis launch was that Amtrak was demanding exclusive rights to operate passenger trains through Union Depot, which Ramsey County was not willing to grant, because the coalition pushing for rail service to Eau Claire is apparently pushing to have it run by a non-Amtrak operator. I haven't seen anything about who that might be, but it occurs to me that the Met Council does currently have three or four unused trainsets hanging out in the Big Lake OMF.

It'd be a lot of moving parts to piece together, obviously, (especially with two states involved) but we could do a lot worse for a starter regional rail system than four round trips per day St. Cloud-Minneapolis-St. Paul-Eau Claire.

I can see it now..

Minneapolis to Fargo (via St. Cloud / Big Lake route)
Minneapolis to Northfield (via Dan Patch) and to Albert Lea
Minneapolis to Mankato

St. Paul to Rochester
St. Paul to Eau Claire
St. Paul to Duluth

all labeled under the NorthStar Rail brand...

And.. dare I even dream the dream of a Downtown St. Paul to Downtown Minneapolis Rail line/shuttle.
I DARE!


Amtrak should be worried.. very worried. haha.

[mattaudio]

There's precedence for ticketing arrangements via Amtrak, correct?
For example, Sounder commuter rail tickets were, at least at one time, valid for Seattle-Everett even on the Empire Builder. Metrolink/LA may also have this arrangement.
In the reverse, Amtrak has ticketed non-Amtrak-operated routes such as when the Hoosier State was run by one of those Iowa & Whatever railroads between Chicago and Indianapolis.
It's not much different than airlines deciding to code-share.

[DanPatchToget]

Not sure what they did exactly, but there was a celebration this morning to mark Northstar's 15th birthday. https://www.metrotransit.org/northstar- ... day-nov-20

Kinda hard for me to be in a celebratory mood for this because:
1) it still doesn't go to St. Cloud, and at this point who knows if it ever will
2) it has less service and ridership today than it did pre-pandemic
3) because of Northstar's lack of success, partly due to points 1 and 2, there's also been a lack of interest from policymakers and planners to form a legitimate regional rail system in the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota

[mulad]

The most frustrating thing is that the anniversary of the start of service was this past Saturday, November 16th, and there isn't any regularly-scheduled weekend service since the pandemic cuts.

I'll continue to argue that Northstar's problems are mostly due to its minimal schedule. It still carries a ton of people per trip, and does just as well as other commuter lines around the country on that basis, but the trains are too infrequent for the numbers to look very big overall.

[MNdible]

And I'll continue to argue that, no, it doesn't actually carry a ton of people. Especially when you're running a full diesel locomotive to move them. As near as I can tell, these trainsets are carrying something like 75 people/run. That's like one articulated bus (or two fancy coaches), which you could operate at a fraction of the cost (and a fraction of the carbon emissions).

[BikesOnFilm]

At this point I think we need to figure out what we're most afraid of when it comes to discontinuing Northstar.

Is it paying back the FTA? Yeah, that wouldn't be great, but it's better than continuing to operate a mostly empty train. MNdible is right - diesel trains can be forgiven if they're actually being used to take cars off the road. Operating them empty is a waste.

Is it the fear that we might never have other commuter lines if we choose to do this? I got great news on that one - we probably won't no matter what happens with Northstar. And that's a good thing. Building Northstar didn't suddenly make Ramsey and Big Lake into little Highland Parks - they remained auto oriented exurbs. Frustratingly, MNDOT kept widening I-94 and Hwy 10 to accommodate growth, and the whole justification of the train went out the window. If we built similar trains to Forest Lake or to Northfield, we'd see similar results.

Instead of hoping we one day extend Northstar to St. Cloud and it's the first phase in building an S-Bahn style system, we should probably be focusing on things like Northern Lights Express or a Brightline style service to Rochester, that run 3-4 times throughout the day, and help outstate MNers see that rail isn't a money pit we keep around for conspiratorial social engineering purposes - it can be something they engage with periodically and enjoy without an expectation that they change their lifestyle around it.

If someone works in the metro but chooses to live in St. Cloud, or Northfield, or Hudson, they probably like driving. I don't agree, but I'm not going to change their mind. And it's not a good use of finite transit funds to keep offering them an option they continue to reject, when there are areas we could be focusing on developing services for that would use it.

[DanPatchToget]

Is it the fear that we might never have other commuter lines if we choose to do this? I got great news on that one - we probably won't no matter what happens with Northstar. And that's a good thing. Building Northstar didn't suddenly make Ramsey and Big Lake into little Highland Parks - they remained auto oriented exurbs. Frustratingly, MNDOT kept widening I-94 and Hwy 10 to accommodate growth, and the whole justification of the train went out the window. If we built similar trains to Forest Lake or to Northfield, we'd see similar results.

Forest Lake or Northfield would've been way better places for our first commuter/regional rail service as they retained downtowns that originated around railroad stations. All of Northstar's suburban stations are either placed outside of a downtown district or where a downtown district doesn't exist.

I agree about getting service running to Duluth and Rochester, but for places close to or within the metro people want more flexibility, and 3-4 trips per day doesn't give them much flexibility unlike a 30-60 minute schedule.

[Korh]

At this point I kind wonder which has more passengers
Northstar with it's 4 round trip weekday only schedule
or Borealis/Empire builder's daily schedule only counting stops between St. Paul, Redwing, and Winona.

[BikesOnFilm]

"but for places close to or within the metro people want more flexibility"

Within the metro, sure. That's what we have light rail, BRT, and commuter bus lines for. Close to the metro, depending on your definition, I'm not buying it anymore. If living car free or car light was an interest or a priority, even somewhere like Apple Valley with the Red Line is an infinitely better choice than Big Lake or Becker. Running transit isn't cheap, and at this point I'm a lot less interested in seeing us run expensive lines out to areas that at best develop agnostic to their existence and at worst are outright hostile towards transit, than seeing us continue to improve and refine core services where they can help move the most amount of transit dependent and transit interested folks.

Right now, CalTrain is celebrating a surge in ridership because of their electric trains that allow them to offer a regional, almost LRT level of service on what was once just a commuter route. But the secret sauce isn't that the trains are electric. It isn't even the reframing from commuter service to regional service scheduling. It's that both San Francisco and San Jose are major residential and employment centers. You can fill trains in both directions, all through the day. Yes, the intermediate stations are better than Northstar's by being classic railroad downtowns, but they're also better by virtue of being urban communities where if you take a train to work, there's a cafe you can walk past on the way to the station for coffee and restaurants and bars to meet friends when you get off the train from work.

In contrast, Ramsey built a bunch of apartments next to the park and ride. You can live next to the train and walk on and off, but you're still driving to get your groceries. Or you drive to the train to get to work, then drive to the grocery store, then drive to the bar to meet your friends, then drive drunk home. Ultimately, the average life in Ramsey is so car dependent already that the benefits of a train don't outweigh the drawbacks. And even if you somehow were able to run a train every ten minutes, all throughout the day, you're probably not going to capture enough people for the great expense of that schedule to be justified.

And just so you don't think I'm cherry picking the brightest spot in US commuter rail right now to our effort, consider Albuquerque - Santa Fe. Or Los Angeles - San Bernardino. Chicago - South Bend. TexRail between Fort Worth and DFW Airport. The main thing these lines have in common is trip generators and destinations at both end, but they also all have in common that they vastly outperform Northstar.

We tried the "if you build it, they will come" approach, and they did not. It'll be painful to shut down Northstar, but it'll at least the experience will tell us that our rail future is light rail and intercity service, not commuter rail.

[mattaudio]

I continue to say the trainsets should be repurposed for regional service. Extend to St. Cloud. Through-route to Mankato or Eau Claire. IDK, just get those trainsets used more.

[DanPatchToget]

Within the metro, sure. That's what we have light rail, BRT, and commuter bus lines for.

None of those are an adequate replacement for regional rail. Light rail and BRT stopping every 0.5-1 mile isn't going to work for most people traveling longer distances (for example Eden Prairie to St. Paul, which will be an option with the Green Line, but will take over an hour/over 30 stops). Commuter buses are in theory faster than LRT/BRT, but are at the mercy of traffic and besides a few exceptions don't perform well with an all-day schedule because they're mainly catered for suburban park & riders going to an office job in downtown.

Close to the metro, depending on your definition, I'm not buying it anymore. If living car free or car light was an interest or a priority, even somewhere like Apple Valley with the Red Line is an infinitely better choice than Big Lake or Becker. Running transit isn't cheap, and at this point I'm a lot less interested in seeing us run expensive lines out to areas that at best develop agnostic to their existence and at worst are outright hostile towards transit, than seeing us continue to improve and refine core services where they can help move the most amount of transit dependent and transit interested folks.

Well I'm not as interested in places like Apple Valley that are complete suburban hellscapes, and more interested in connecting places with the as you mentioned classic railroad town developments; Wayzata, Stillwater, Lakeville, Chanhassen, Monticello, Rosemount, etc. All of those have sprawled with auto-oriented development, but still retain their original transit-oriented downtowns even if there's currently no transit serving them.

Right now, CalTrain is celebrating a surge in ridership because of their electric trains that allow them to offer a regional, almost LRT level of service on what was once just a commuter route. But the secret sauce isn't that the trains are electric. It isn't even the reframing from commuter service to regional service scheduling. It's that both San Francisco and San Jose are major residential and employment centers. You can fill trains in both directions, all through the day. Yes, the intermediate stations are better than Northstar's by being classic railroad downtowns, but they're also better by virtue of being urban communities where if you take a train to work, there's a cafe you can walk past on the way to the station for coffee and restaurants and bars to meet friends when you get off the train from work.

And just so you don't think I'm cherry picking the brightest spot in US commuter rail right now to our effort, consider Albuquerque - Santa Fe. Or Los Angeles - San Bernardino. Chicago - South Bend. TexRail between Fort Worth and DFW Airport. The main thing these lines have in common is trip generators and destinations at both end, but they also all have in common that they vastly outperform Northstar.

We tried the "if you build it, they will come" approach, and they did not. It'll be painful to shut down Northstar, but it'll at least the experience will tell us that our rail future is light rail and intercity service, not commuter rail.

Based on all of those examples it seems to me the lesson to be learned is not to shut down Northstar, but rather to have it go to an actual destination, which is St. Cloud. All of those routes would be in the same boat as Northstar if they went with the cheap and extremely flawed logic of having the train go about half the distance and make people transfer to a bus to go the rest of the way.


The Star Tribune covered Northstar's birthday and its uncertain future. The passenger subsidy is definitely quite high, though it would've been nice to see how that compares to express buses instead of the Green Line, which has absolutely nothing in common with Northstar besides being a train.

https://www.startribune.com/what-is-nor ... /601186074

[BikesOnFilm]

That same Star Tribune article estimates that it'll cost somewhere between $550 million and $690 million (going to say $600 million for simplicity) to extend Northstar to St. Cloud. At the rate it's been going, fifteen years now with no solid moves towards extension, it could be over a billion by the time anyone actually tries to do this.

Call me crazy, but I would much rather invest that $600 million in metro area transit improvements that make more corners of the core cities and first ring suburbs into places you can live easily without a car. The more places like that exist, the easier and cheaper it would be for the handful of people in St. Cloud who 1) Live in St. Cloud but work in the TC metro and 2) Want to live without a car can relocate here.

I feel like of the two pipe dreams (us spending double what we paid for the initial Northstar when ridership is a crater of what it used to be to connect St. Cloud/making it easier and more affordable for people who like transit to live in the actual metro) the latter seems far more reasonable.

Furthermore, I don't think having a train will improve the urbanism of St. Cloud any more than it's improved the urbanism of Big Lake or Ramsey. They asked the state for $100 million dollars in random civic beautification because they're looking at how well places like Fargo and Sioux City are doing, but they've had the power to fix everything the whole time. It's zoning and parking reform. It's always zoning and parking reform. Maybe they should have the political courage to do the very obvious steps first before we spend any money to try and bail them out.

[mattaudio]

I've probably shared it before, but another thing that would make St. Cloud successful is if it hopped the river to stop closer to the population centers in the region. It could stop at the existing Link station on the south side of St. Cloud, then cross the rail bridge and stop in Downtown St. Cloud before continuing on to a stop and layover facility in Waite Park or possibly even further to St. Joseph.
The complicating factor here is that none of these stops are the actual Amtrak stop in east St Cloud. But that's already the case with the current/previous plans.

[DanPatchToget]

Call me crazy, but I would much rather invest that $600 million in metro area transit improvements that make more corners of the core cities and first ring suburbs into places you can live easily without a car. The more places like that exist, the easier and cheaper it would be for the handful of people in St. Cloud who 1) Live in St. Cloud but work in the TC metro and 2) Want to live without a car can relocate here.

While some of that $600 million or whatever the price is would come from the metro, not all of it would be, so let's not pretend the metro would save hundreds of millions that could easily go into other transit improvements.

Also keep in mind that the route Northstar operates on is one of, if not the, busiest freight rail corridor in Minnesota, so more track is needed to account for any further increase in freight traffic plus any Northstar expansion plus any additional Amtrak service (NLX, second daily train to Grand Forks, etc.). If the ~$600 million for Northstar to St. Cloud can also help the case for additional and more reliable intercity rail service to Duluth, Fargo, Grand Forks, etc. then it sounds worth it to me.

[BikesOnFilm]

The federal government didn't provide enough money to connect to St. Cloud back when the line didn't exist and it was unknown whether that ridership would be high enough to justify the full route, but projected not to be enough.

Now that the line does exist, we absolutely know that ridership does not justify the extension.

So in a world where cities and municipalities are competing for the same pool of federal transportation funds (assuming we don't change this paradigm for one where states make their own decisions in the near future), does it make sense to compete for $600 million in funding for a project that will never be worth the cost, or to compete for funding for projects like the Blue Line Extension, BRT routes, or infrastructure updates to help establish state supported Amtrak routes? As an aside - we spent around $50 million on improvements for Borealis, and we shared that cost with WSDOT and federal partners. Spending $600 million because maybe that'll help a Borealis extension to Fargo is just not a good use of money.

I'm sorry, there's just not going to be a world where this is ever going to be worth it. If there was a way to use the St. Cloud Amtrak station, skip Becker, and not have to do any sort of capacity expansion to the tracks, it would be one thing. But it seems, for one reason or another, that this isn't an option.

That's to say nothing about what we'd actually be buying for that money - say you make St. Cloud into an affordable bedroom community for Minneapolis with convenient service of 6-8 trains a day that gets a lot of love and ridership. St. Cloud's current parking regulations call for 2 parking spaces per unit. Their comprehensive plan cites proposed township annexations as a way to facilitate growth, and says explicitly that "single family homes will remain the dominant land use in the city."

If you had to choose to make it easier and more affordable to live in St. Cloud and commute to work by transit to Minneapolis, or make it easier and more affordable to live and commute to work by transit in Columbia Heights, Richfield, St. Louis Park, or Robbinsdale, what makes the most sense from an ecological or urbanist perspective? Hint - it's not a $600 million dollar bailout to sprawl in Stearns County.

[twincitizen]

Politically speaking, I think the smart thing for the DFL to do is to let the GOP propose shutting down Northstar, then DFL leaders posture against that publicly, while figuring out what other DFL transportation/budget priorities can be extracted in exchange for shutting down Northstar.

Edit: it would be nice to secure funding for the state’s 10% share of the Blue Line extension, funding for the next three aBRT routes beyond the H Line, and continuing funding for bike-walk infrastructure improvements at current levels or higher. I was tempted to throw in NLX to Duluth, but I’m not sure that’s even going to be feasible in the next four years at the federal level.

[BikesOnFilm]

Politically speaking, I think the smart thing for the DFL to do is to let the GOP propose shutting down Northstar, then DFL leaders posture against that publicly, while figuring out what other DFL transportation/budget priorities can be extracted in exchange for shutting down Northstar.

I would love to see the DFL/Dems have that kind of strategy and game theory. That would be a nice change of pace.

[daveybabymsp]

Republicans hate rail and say everything should either be BRT or not exist at all, so let’s get funding for aBRT all the way to the Z line