Northstar Commuter Rail

[Silophant]

I'm wondering if the impending closure of the Sherco Plant and its three coal trains per day will have a major impact on congestion, or if there's enough freight traffic that that doesn't really make a difference.

[Trademark]

I'm wondering if the impending closure of the Sherco Plant and its three coal trains per day will have a major impact on congestion, or if there's enough freight traffic that that doesn't really make a difference.

The Northstar Line sees about 80 freight trains per day according to the last Northstar extension study in 2020.

[mulad]

I'll have to look at that study at some point. I think the highest I'd heard previously was about 65 trains/day. Of course, there are 1,440 minutes in a day, and (for instance) a 7,000-foot freight train going at 45 mph is going to take about 2 minutes to pass by. With trains traveling in 2 directions, that's going to mean that any stretch of track would be expected to be occupied by freights around 5% of the time if the trains were continuously in motion. Unfortunately, things get backed up and slow down for various reasons, but it's worth thinking about how to get them to have something as close to continuous flow through the area as possible.

Northstar is of course a passenger train, so it runs at 79-ish miles per hour as much as possible, but slower along some stretches -- through the Northtown yard (45 mph, I think), over switches (50 or 55 for going straight through, maybe slower if switching tracks), and for stations (where they slow to a stop, wait for ~1 minute, and then speed up again). At this point, the schedule has degraded so that Northstar trains average... 45 miles per hour.

How do I schedule a passenger train averaging 45 miles per hour between freight trains averaging 45 miles per hour when my track is unoccupied 95% of the time if things are running on schedule? Help me, my family is dying. (I swear they used to average 50 or 55 mph... I might have to dig up some old schedules I have socked away somewhere).

I don't want to say that there's no need for additional tracks, but we don't need to triple-track the whole corridor either. Add a third track in/near Northtown past the Fridley station and up to Coon Creek junction so both sides of that platform can get used (assuming we can get proper schedules again), and maybe a couple other sidings in strategic locations (possibly by adding a third track at certain stations).

[commissioner]

The southbound platform at Fridley was built for a third track and there is space for a third track between there and Coon Creek, hence making it easier between Northtown and Coon Creek. Past there is another story, between rebuilding every station, land acquisition, political factor and NIMBY factor, it would be a lot harder to do without a lot of money, and that's before getting BNSF on board. I'd love to see it happen but I'm not holding my breath.

[J. Mc]

Northstar rail post pandemic study results presentation to Transportation Committee;

https://metrocouncil.org/Council-Meetin ... 2023_.aspx

[Oreos&Milk]

Northstar rail post pandemic study results presentation to Transportation Committee;

https://metrocouncil.org/Council-Meetin ... 2023_.aspx

Ouch..

I think we need to have a conversation of extending the train to St. Cloud and just running train service during rush hour and then running hourly or half-hour bus service the rest of the day.

Or if anything just running bus service the entire way and gift the trains to NLX. Then at least we would have dependable transit in the Northstar corridor instead of the limitations of limited ability to run trains on a private railroad.

Sucks but it's about time we rip the bandaid off and move on.

[Bakken2016]

Northstar rail post pandemic study results presentation to Transportation Committee;

https://metrocouncil.org/Council-Meetin ... 2023_.aspx

Ouch..

I think we need to have a conversation of extending the train to St. Cloud and just running train service during rush hour and then running hourly or half-hour bus service the rest of the day.

Or if anything just running bus service the entire way and gift the trains to NLX. Then at least we would have dependable transit in the Northstar corridor instead of the limitations of limited ability to run trains on a private railroad.

Sucks but it's about time we rip the bandaid off and move on.

Yeah, I don't think the Met Council wants to pay the Feds back $75 million.

[Trademark]

Extending to St Cloud and giving the route to Amtrak to run all day service seems like the best option. With all the commuter express routes being cut, it's hard to justify a route that's average customer is making over 100k. The line costs more to operate than the 18 for just 2 round trips a day (if they also add Twins service). And gets over a million less riders a year.

Even if the service would be less initially with Amtrak. Demand can hopefully lead to more trains per day, and then down the line when it justifies it again, we could maybe get real Regional Rail on Northstar.

[alexschief]

I sort of have a romantic idyll of trains to St. Cloud, Duluth, Winona, etc. (Rochester someday?) having more locally focused branding. I've always liked the livery of the Northstar trains and hoped the Northern Lights Express trains would have a design with a similar motif, but perhaps different colors.

I'm not aware of Amtrak running differently branded trains though and obviously the aesthetics are not a good reason to oppose a governance change that would substantially improve the service. But I sort of wish it could be retained.

[MNdible]

I'm skeptical but hopeful that NLX to Duluth will be successful, but I'm really quite certain that Amtrak to St. Clould will somehow have even fewer riders than Northstar.

[Trademark]

I'm skeptical but hopeful that NLX to Duluth will be successful, but I'm really quite certain that Amtrak to St. Clould will somehow have even fewer riders than Northstar.

If Amtrak to St Cloud at regular frequency isn't pulling ridership numbers that make sense then the corridor itself should be shut down and operations money should be spent upgrading our bus system.

I like rail a lot don't get me wrong. But for all the talks of equity that is thrown around in our transit system, a line like Northstar that costs $12 mil a year to run the limited schedule (Over $23 to bring back pre-covid service) who's average rider is making $100k a year isn't equity. Especially when we are facing a funding cliff, and that money could upgrade 2-4 transit lines from 30 minute service to 15 minute service (With the $12 mil a year, depending on length and travel time). And would have millions more riders.

[thespeedmccool]

Our leaders seem to forget that transportation is a zero-sum game: every trip can only be taken once. When people are given the option between driving to a park-and-ride, getting out, walking to the platform in the cold, waiting for the train, fighting with delays, then getting out, walking to a connecting service, waiting for that, etc., etc. or just staying in their car and driving to work, the choice is insanely easy, especially if you're high-income. If you want transit to succeed, you have to actually present a reason to choose it over driving.

Northstar to St. Cloud is an excellent service in concept, especially if it is all-day and bidirectional. But our government won't do anything to make it succeed - they'll continue expanding 94 and making it easier to drive. Northstar is doomed to fail because we want it both ways: we want driving and transit to be seamless, but Americans' preferences will always lead them to pick driving when both options are easy.

Until we make a commitment to be a transit-oriented state, Northstar will languish with abysmal ridership, whoever runs it.

[Trademark]

Our leaders seem to forget that transportation is a zero-sum game: every trip can only be taken once. When people are given the option between driving to a park-and-ride, getting out, walking to the platform in the cold, waiting for the train, fighting with delays, then getting out, walking to a connecting service, waiting for that, etc., etc. or just staying in their car and driving to work, the choice is insanely easy, especially if you're high-income. If you want transit to succeed, you have to actually present a reason to choose it over driving.

Northstar to St. Cloud is an excellent service in concept, especially if it is all-day and bidirectional. But our government won't do anything to make it succeed - they'll continue expanding 94 and making it easier to drive. Northstar is doomed to fail because we want it both ways: we want driving and transit to be seamless, but Americans' preferences will always lead them to pick driving when both options are easy.

Until we make a commitment to be a transit-oriented state, Northstar will languish with abysmal ridership, whoever runs it.

A train to St Cloud would likely be pretty on time, and would hit 79 (maybe 90) for the majority of its route. I'm not saying it's going to have insane numbers, but it should get steady ridership, and would likely justify expansions after a few years. Especially since as it was said during the met council meetings, the departure times would be spread out over the day. This is the closest thing we'll get to all day scheduling.

[thespeedmccool]

Our leaders seem to forget that transportation is a zero-sum game: every trip can only be taken once. When people are given the option between driving to a park-and-ride, getting out, walking to the platform in the cold, waiting for the train, fighting with delays, then getting out, walking to a connecting service, waiting for that, etc., etc. or just staying in their car and driving to work, the choice is insanely easy, especially if you're high-income. If you want transit to succeed, you have to actually present a reason to choose it over driving.

Northstar to St. Cloud is an excellent service in concept, especially if it is all-day and bidirectional. But our government won't do anything to make it succeed - they'll continue expanding 94 and making it easier to drive. Northstar is doomed to fail because we want it both ways: we want driving and transit to be seamless, but Americans' preferences will always lead them to pick driving when both options are easy.

Until we make a commitment to be a transit-oriented state, Northstar will languish with abysmal ridership, whoever runs it.

A train to St Cloud would likely be pretty on time, and would hit 79 (maybe 90) for the majority of its route. I'm not saying it's going to have insane numbers, but it should get steady ridership, and would likely justify expansions after a few years. Especially since as it was said during the met council meetings, the departure times would be spread out over the day. This is the closest thing we'll get to all day scheduling.

My point is that it doesn't really matter how great a hypothetical Northstar to St. Cloud service is because the exurbanites on that corridor will simply choose to drive. St. Cloud as an endpoint does have some more folks who may be transit-dependent or who just have a preference for transit, but I don't think it's enough.

Northstar will never stop being a money pit, I fear. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be a great service for those who need it, but we shouldn't pretend like it's going to suddenly leap in ridership because it connects to city with a dozen fixed bus routes. Today, it's an expensive toy for urbanists living in Anoka, and with an extension to St. Cloud, it would just barely serve as a worthwhile transit service. Extend it or kill it.

[Tcmetro]

I've always assumed that St Cloud ridership would be centered around SCSU. Anyone who lives in St Cloud and works in Minneapolis is probably working remotely whenever possible.

[Trademark]

I've always assumed that St Cloud ridership would be centered around SCSU. Anyone who lives in St Cloud and works in Minneapolis is probably working remotely whenever possible.

Agreed, and this is also already happening along Northstar, and is the reason the ridership is so bad.

[commissioner]

Our leaders seem to forget that transportation is a zero-sum game: every trip can only be taken once. When people are given the option between driving to a park-and-ride, getting out, walking to the platform in the cold, waiting for the train, fighting with delays, then getting out, walking to a connecting service, waiting for that, etc., etc. or just staying in their car and driving to work, the choice is insanely easy, especially if you're high-income. If you want transit to succeed, you have to actually present a reason to choose it over driving.

Northstar to St. Cloud is an excellent service in concept, especially if it is all-day and bidirectional. But our government won't do anything to make it succeed - they'll continue expanding 94 and making it easier to drive. Northstar is doomed to fail because we want it both ways: we want driving and transit to be seamless, but Americans' preferences will always lead them to pick driving when both options are easy.

Until we make a commitment to be a transit-oriented state, Northstar will languish with abysmal ridership, whoever runs it.

I couldn't agree more with this!!!

[John21]

I've always assumed that St Cloud ridership would be centered around SCSU. Anyone who lives in St Cloud and works in Minneapolis is probably working remotely whenever possible.

Agreed, and this is also already happening along Northstar, and is the reason the ridership is so bad.

Also, SCSU enrollment is about half of what it was even 10 years ago.

[MNdible]

Don't forget about all of the tourists visiting St. Cloud.

[Didier]

St. Cloudians could also use Northstar to come down and shop at all the non-chain retail coming to Uptown.